Prediction: These 5 Treasure Valley football teams will advance to the state championship
The high school football playoffs have nearly reached their peak with the state semifinals on tap this week.
The final four in every classification square off Friday and Saturday, and the Treasure Valley is well represented with nine teams in the semifinals.
I broke down the chances for each Valley team to reach the finals. Here’s how they’ll do it, and who’s moving on.
Rigby at Rocky Mountain, 7 p.m. Friday
One of the drawbacks of winning 22 straight games is outsiders start searching for holes. I’m as guilty of that as anyone as I try to predict the day that streak ends.
The unanimously No. 1-ranked Grizzlies (10-0) average 94 fewer yards per game than a year ago. But amazingly enough, they might actually be better on defense.
This year’s squad has allowed fewer points (11.7 per game), total yards (196), rushing yards (62) and passing yards (134) than the defense that led Rocky Mountain to a state title last year.
It hasn’t created nearly as many turnovers (23 to an impossible 39 a year ago). Yet it still leads the state in that category, and the Grizzlies’ defense has stepped up time and time again with the game on the line, more than last year’s team ever had to.
“It’s experience and speed,” said Rocky Mountain coach Chris Culig, who returned eight starters from the state’s top defense a year ago. “We’re fast, and what we do complements that.”
That defense will receive its toughest test yet in No. 5 Rigby (8-1). The Trojans demolished Eagle last week 56-28, racking up 527 yards of offense while running for 368. Culig said Rigby has more size than anyone Rocky Mountain has faced this year, and it fields two of the state’s top college recruits.
Senior defensive lineman Tanoa Togiai (6-foot-6, 295) holds scholarship offers from six FBS programs, including Utah, UCLA and Virginia, according to 247Sports. He’s the cousin of Tommy Togiai, who wrecked Rocky Mountain’s offensive line while playing with Highland in 2017 and now suits up for Ohio State.
And quarterback Keegan Thompson (6-5, 190) remains one of the state’s top dual-threat weapons, hauling in offers from Idaho and Idaho State. Washington also extended a preferred walk-on spot earlier this month.
Rigby has all the talent and tools to finally end Rocky Mountain’s reign. But the Grizzlies keep racking up Ws for a simple reason: They know how to win.
Expect that elite defense, or maybe a score from the special teams, to strike again.
Rocky Mountain 27, Rigby 22
Middleton at Kuna, 7 p.m. Friday
Middleton had one of the best shots to stop Kuna’s undefeated season way back in Week 1 when a Vikings receiver dropped a sure touchdown in the final 2 minutes, allowing Kuna to hang on for a 34-28 victory.
That game saw a whopping 100 pass attempts as both quarterbacks chucked it around the field. But the No. 1-ranked Kavemen (11-0) and No. 5 Middleton (8-3) have both found a running game since then.
Middleton senior Trenton Johansen suffered a lower-leg injury in that Week 1 matchup, an injury that held him out until Week 5. Since then, he’s run for 1,335 yards and 13 TDs, taking advantage of teams that lighten their defensive front to slow the Vikings’ Air Raid offense.
“He’s been hurting all year,” Middleton coach Bill Brock said. “But he’s done a good job getting himself ready to play, and the guys up front are doing a good job opening holes for him.”
But Kuna coach Sherm Blaser isn’t taking the bait. He knows for the Kavemen to advance to their first state championship game since 1998, they’ll have to keep the Vikings’ potent passing attack (284 yards per game, second in 4A) under wraps. Or as under wraps as possible.
“We feel like we are pretty stout up front,” Blaser said. “... Our hope is we can play our style and hold their running game to a manageable situation, and take away their favorite plays on the back end. We have spent a lot of time on their passing concepts that we feel are their best ones.”
Don’t expect another shootout as both teams force turnovers in bunches. But Kuna has found the magic touch every time it needs it this year. Why not one more time?
Kuna 29, Middleton 24
Blackfoot at Nampa, 6 p.m. Friday
Nampa (8-3) entered the playoffs unranked and as the fifth-place team in the Southern Idaho Conference. Yet here it is, back in the semifinals for the second straight year.
Memories of last year’s 41-20 loss to eventual champion Hillcrest have fueled the Bulldogs all season. And Nampa coach Dan Holtry said they’ve come rushing back to the forefront now that Nampa has another chance to reach its first state title game since 2007.
“They have been telling each other all week that they are not settling,” Dan Holtry said. “They are not done. They’ve been to this level, but they want more.
“They are really proud they’ve reached this mark, but they expect more out of themselves.”
Most teams limp into November. Instead, No. 2-ranked Blackfoot (10-1) is getting healthy for a stretch run.
Quarterback Craig Young and running back Teegan Thomas have missed multiple games this season with injuries. But Thomas returned from a broken wrist with a cast on his arm last week, running for 149 yards and two TDs in a come-from-behind, 42-14 win over Minico to put Blackfoot’s offense back at full strength.
The duo and Blackfoot’s nine-game winning streak make Nampa a decided underdog. But the Bulldogs are comfortable in that role. And senior quarterback Donavon Estrada is playing on another level.
Nampa 34, Blackfoot 28
Timberlake at Homedale, 1 p.m. Saturday
Top-seeded Homedale (10-0) rolls into the 3A semifinals for the second straight year. And the Trojans are one of the state’s most dominant teams again, outscoring opponents by 46.1 points per game, the largest margin among all 11-man teams.
Senior quarterback Daniel Uranga leads the show, and the 4.0 student continues to shred defenses, completing 62 percent of his passes for 2,092 yards with 27 TDs and two interceptions.
But to get back to the finals and win the program’s first title since 1997, Homedale will have to slow Timberlake quarterback Joey Follini and the undefeated White Tigers (9-0). The Trojans got a heavy dose of Follini in last year’s semifinal, and Homedale coach Matt Holtry knows he can change the game in a heartbeat.
“He’ll run from one sideline to the other sideline, and then he’ll throw it 20 yards down the field,” Matt Holtry said. “He made plays last year in the semifinals where if it wasn’t for him, it would have been a three- or four-score game. Instead, it was a one-score game in the fourth quarter.”
But Homedale survived Follini’s heroics last year. And it will do it again Saturday to earn a rematch with Sugar-Salem (8-1).
Homedale 35, Timberlake 27
North Fremont at McCall-Donnelly, 6 p.m. Friday
Strength meets strength as North Fremont (10-0) and its power running game face McCall-Donnelly (10-0), which has only allowed 220 rushing yards all season (22 yards per game).
The Vandals’ defense has dominated opponents all year, surrendering just 77 yards and 5.8 points per game — the fewest for any defense in any classification.
Chase Burtenshaw leads the effort with 88 tackles, 17 tackles for loss, 10 sacks, seven forced fumbles and eight fumble recoveries. But he’s got loads of help from Tuff Bentz, Parker Pyle and a host of Vandals who live in the backfield.
Expect a low-scoring game, but for McCall-Donnelly to advance to its first championship game since 2004.
McCall-Donnelly 21, North Fremont 7
Melba at West Side, 1 p.m. Saturday
Melba (8-2) and its Wing-T offense have rolled through the playoffs largely behind Easton Bunnell (1,445 yards, 28 TDs) and Scotty Martinez (1,069 yards, 15 TDs).
But the Mustangs will find tougher sledding against top-seeded West Side (9-1). The Pirates have allowed just 6.8 points per game all year, including a shutout of the same Bear Lake team Melba beat 36-20 in the quarterfinals.
West Side 22, Melba 13
Wilder vs. Lost Rivers at Holt Arena, 6 p.m. Saturday
Standing at 6-4, 184 pounds, Wilder senior receiver Norman Gonzalez (64 catches, 1,230 yards, 16 TDs) remains flat-out uncoverable at the 8-man level. And the Wildcats (8-2) nearly upset another juggernaut on the turf at Holt Arena in the semifinals last year.
But with a bounty of ball carriers who help Lost Rivers run for 352 yards per game, the Pirates (10-0) and Prairie (9-0) are destined for a championship matchup next week.
Lost Rivers 34, Wilder 20
Carey vs. Garden Valley, 6 p.m. Friday at Eagle
The 8-man game remains dominated by running backs in open space. But Garden Valley (7-3) cuts against the grain with a potent aerial attack that presents challenges for defenses across the state.
The Wolverines rack up 187 yards a game through the air. Junior Covy Kelley (48 catches, 1,074 yards, 19 TDs) already has carried Garden Valley to a state finals appearance in basketball. And the turf at Eagle will only benefit the Wolverines’ speed.
But if anyone has the athletes to hang with Garden Valley, it’s two-time defending state champ Carey (9-1), winner of 33 of its last 34 games.
Carey 42, Garden Valley 32
This story was originally published November 14, 2019 at 3:52 PM.
