Prediction: These 5 Treasure Valley football teams will advance to the state semifinals
The calendar flipped to November this week. So that can only mean one thing — time to separate the wheat from the chaff in the Idaho high school football playoffs.
The state quarterfinals kick off this weekend with 13 teams from the greater Treasure Valley still in the title hunt. But by Saturday afternoon, only five will remain standing.
Here’s who I predict will move on, and who will start packing up their gear.
Mountain View vs. Capital at East Junior High, 6 p.m.
Call this an upset if you must. But I won’t.
Capital (4-1) has all the advantages on paper.
It is the SIC’s second seed in the playoffs. Mountain View (4-3) is the sixth seed.
It earned a bye into the quarterfinals. Mountain View needed to win three in a row to make the playoffs.
It started the year 4-0. Mountain View began 0-3, the worst start in program history.
But expect the Mavericks to come out on top Friday at East Junior High of all places — yet another sign of this upside-down year.
Mountain View played a far tougher schedule than Capital in the 5A SIC West Division, leading to that disastrous start. That forced the Mavericks into win-or-go-home mode back in September. And they haven’t blinked since, winning out and then scoring a 44-41 victory after an 8-hour bus ride to Post Falls.
Mountain View’s defense remains shaky (30.0 ppg allowed). But the Mavericks power through with an elite offense led by senior quarterback Jake Farris and junior running back Leyton Smithson, who turned 24 touches into 319 yards and three TDs last week in Post Falls.
Through no fault of its own, Capital was stuck in the 5A SIC East Division, where it was never truly challenged.
Then Capital starting quarterback Max Clark went down, forcing the Eagles to rebuild on the fly. They struggled to edge winless Borah in the regular-season finale, then were overmatched in the SIC championship game as Rocky Mountain invoked the running-clock mercy rule.
A bye week gave Capital time to come up with new solutions. But not enough to keep up with Mountain View.
Mountain View 29, Capital 20
Highland at Rocky Mountain, 7 p.m.
This matchup ought to sound familiar. The Grizzlies and Rams have met in the playoffs six of the past eight years (with Highland winning three of the previous five games). But this is the earliest matchup yet in the state quarterfinals.
No. 5-ranked Highland (8-2) lost its stranglehold on East Idaho to Rigby, forcing it into the first round of the playoffs for the second year in a row. The Rams nearly saw their season end there until they rallied in the second half to dispatch Meridian.
Settle in for a battle of strengths. Highland still fields 5A’s top run defense (77 yards allowed per game). Meanwhile, Rocky Mountain ranks second in rushing (264 yards per game) behind the trio of Max Lehman, Art Williams and Jordan Erickson.
The No. 3-ranked Grizzlies (6-0) only throw when they need to. But senior quarterback Kobe Warr has come up in the clutch several times this year.
Rocky Mountain will need another big-game performance out of him.
Rocky Mountain 34, Highland 28
Eagle at Rigby, 7 p.m.
A rematch of last year’s quarterfinal stands as the top 5A matchup of the weekend.
No. 2-ranked Rigby (8-0) somehow remains overlooked despite winning the state title last year and running through the regular season undefeated again this fall. The Trojans aren’t the flashiest team. Instead, they rely on a simple formula: Protect the ball and force turnovers in bunches.
Rigby has only turned it over three times in eight games. But its defense has forced a state-leading 19 turnovers, giving it by far the state’s best turnover margin (+16).
No. 4-ranked Eagle (6-1) fields a potent running game that averages a jaw-dropping 360 rushing yards per game. Seniors Jackson Stampli and Ben Ford — 5A’s leading and third-leading rushers — can take over a game in the blink of an eye, even against a stacked box.
But the Mustangs have yet to prove they can take to the air when needed to. That imbalance spells trouble against a Rigby team that won’t afford Eagle any extra opportunities.
Rigby 21, Eagle 15
Timberline at Coeur d’Alene, 8 p.m. MT
The Wolves (3-3) keep on proving their doubters wrong. They took an 8-hour bus trip to Post Falls last year and came away with the first playoff win in program history. Then they upset Skyview on its home field last week behind a monster performance from Taylor Marcum for the second playoff win in program history.
Timberline has put the rest of the state on notice as an up-and-coming program. But No. 1-ranked Coeur d’Alene (7-0) remains in another category.
The Vikings have won 24 in a row at home, and no 5A SIC team has won on Coeur d’Alene’s turf since 2009.
Coeur d’Alene 42, Timberline 15
Blackfoot at Emmett, 7 p.m.
The No. 4-ranked Huskies (8-2) have exceeded all expectations, winning their first 4A SIC title and the second 4A playoff game in program history.
Nothing has come easy, though. Emmett needed second-half rallies to win four games, and it won a fifth with the game tied at halftime.
The Huskies can’t afford to fall behind again against No. 2-ranked Blackfoot (8-1). The Broncos haven’t allowed anyone to score more than 21 points all year, and they ranked second in 4A with 13.1 points allowed per game.
There’s some magic behind this Emmett team. But keep playing with fire and you’ll eventually get burned.
Blackfoot 27, Emmett 22
Bishop Kelly at Century, 7 p.m.
Don’t look now, but No. 3-ranked Bishop Kelly (7-1) has quietly built a juggernaut.
The Knights lost their season opener to Emmett, a team with two games already under its belt, in the final minute. Since then, they’ve won seven in a row. Only one was close. And they lead the 4A classification with 39.9 points per game behind a powerful run game.
Century (6-3) made a late-season run to win its conference, largely behind a turnover-hungry defense (26 forced, the most in 5A and 4A).
If BK can take care of the ball, it will keep marching on.
Bishop Kelly 35, Century 20
Nampa at Skyline, 7 p.m.
The new MaxPreps-seeded state playoff brackets haven’t been kind to Nampa.
The Bulldogs (6-2) hit the road to Middleton last week despite finishing ahead of the Vikings in the conference standings. After overcoming that mistake, they must travel again to the state’s unanimous No. 1-ranked team.
Skyline (9-1) isn’t your typical top-ranked team. An efficient offense and stout defense have masked a minus-5 turnover margin. But Nampa has struggled to create any turnovers with just five all year.
Nampa proved its turnaround wasn’t limited to a loaded senior class that led the Bulldogs to back-to-back trips to the semifinals. But a third straight trip is too much to ask for.
Skyline 33, Nampa 15
This story was originally published November 4, 2020 at 6:05 PM.
