Prediction: These 3 Treasure Valley girls basketball teams will win state titles
The high school girls basketball state tournaments return to the Boise metro area this weekend. But they’ll look a little different.
Fan limitations will keep crowd sizes down. Mask requirements will create a new atmosphere. And the 1A tournaments start a day early on Wednesday and will crown their champions Friday in another effort to slow the spread of the coronavirus.
But one tournament favorite won’t change — speculation about who will win it all.
A season with little crossover play between areas of the state makes predictions even more difficult. But I dug through all 48 teams in all six state tournaments, picking the favorites, contenders and dark horses to bring home a championship banner.
CLASS 5A
THE FAVORITE: Mountain View (17-2) returns with all the firepower necessary to repeat as state champ. The Mavericks field 5A’s top offense (61.2 ppg) and second-toughest defense (36.8 ppg), just like they did last year. And they return two of the state’s top players in senior guard Trinity Slocum and junior forward Naya Ojukwu.
Both were first-team All-Idaho selections last year. Both have a Division I future with Slocum signing with Hawaii and Ojukwu weighing a host of options. And both can take over a game at a moment’s notice.
Unfortunately, the Mavericks open with the toughest first-round draw against Timberline.
THE CONTENDER: Coeur d’Alene (18-1) returns a veteran squad from last year’s state qualifier. All five starters are back. And five of its seven seniors are on the varsity squad for their fourth season.
The Vikings nearly went undefeated, only dropping an overtime game at Thunder Ridge during a three-day tournament. They’ve won 10 straight since, and 14 of their 18 wins were by double digits.
Coeur d’Alene finished No. 1 in the final state media poll. But it didn’t get battle-tested against Spokane powers like it normally does thanks to the coronavirus, leaving questions about its strength of schedule.
THE DARK HORSE: Timberline (11-2) won the 5A SIC regular-season title, only to get upset in the district tournament by Boise and fall into a first-round matchup with Mountain View.
The defending state runner-up has a strong frontcourt led by Sophia Glancey, and a dynamic backcourt headed by Audrey Taylor and Lauren McCall — ingredients that make for a dangerous tournament team.
And the Wolves appear to have finally solved their Mountain View problem, snapping an 18-game losing streak to the Mavericks earlier this year. That first-round matchup could easily end up as the state championship game.
CLASS 4A
THE FAVORITE: Never count out Century (16-5), which has played in the past three state championship games and six of the past eight. Especially when the bracket sets up in its favor.
The Diamondbacks are rounding into form at the right time, winning 11 of their past 12 games. And senior guard Tenleigh Smith, an Idaho State commit, gives Century an elite talent who can strap the team on her back when needed.
THE CONTENDER: No. 1-ranked Middleton (17-2) stands as the best threat to end East Idaho’s dominance in 4A.
The Vikings returned to their roots this year, building the classification’s top defense (32.7 ppg). Junior point guard Payton Hymas can affect the game in a myriad of ways. And junior forward Casidy Fried remains a monster in the paint (9.2 ppg, 10.0 rebounds, 4.3 blocks).
That’s a formula that made the Vikings a perennial power in the last decade. It ought to carry over to this one.
THE DARK HORSE: Skyline (17-7) returns to the state tournament for the first time since 2007 capable of making noise.
The Grizzlies have won 11 of their past 12 games. And they’ve played arguably the toughest schedule in 4A with Coeur d’Alene, Rigby and Thunder Ridge — all 5A state qualifiers — on their schedule. Skyline is 2-3 vs. those three teams.
CLASS 3A
THE FAVORITE: Timberlake (20-2) brings another loaded squad to the Treasure Valley to defend its state title.
Its starting lineup includes the reigning 3A player of the year (Taryn Soumas) paired with another first-team All-Idaho forward (Brooke Jessen). Both have topped 1,000 career points. And both are key to 3A’s top offense (56.4 ppg) and defense (31.0 ppg).
The Tigers’ only losses this season came to Coeur d’Alene, the No. 1-ranked team in 5A.
THE CONTENDER: Sugar-Salem (22-1) and Timberlake have combined to win the past six state titles. Thankfully, they stand on opposite sides of the bracket this year.
The Diggers rank just behind Timberlake in offense and defense. They’ve won 18 straight. And their only loss came to a 4A state qualifier, Skyline.
Another battle with Timberlake for the title seems inevitable.
THE DARK HORSE: Parma (16-5) flew quietly under the radar all year. But the Panthers have won 15 of their past 16 games. They field one of 3A’s top talents in Grace Jackson. And they have plenty of other firepower, including Austyn Harris and Brooke Johnson, to keep teams from focusing solely on her.
CLASS 2A
THE FAVORITE: Top-ranked Cole Valley Christian (17-1) gives the Treasure Valley its best shot to win a 2A state title for the first time since 2003.
The defending state runner-up brings back two All-Idaho players and rare size at the 2A level in 6-1 junior Ellie Fraas and 5-11 senior Anna Veeck. The Chargers field the classification’s top offense (57.9 ppg). And they’ve won 11 in a row in an up-and-coming Western Idaho Conference.
THE CONTENDER: Ririe (22-2) carries the banner for East Idaho, which has won nine straight 2A state championships. The No. 2-ranked Bulldogs won 20 of their past 21 games. And they are only getting better with two key players, Skylee Coles and Halley Guthrie, coming back from injuries.
THE DARK HORSE: Grangeville (16-4) remains the only team to beat Cole Valley Christian this year. And the No. 3-ranked Bulldogs get another shot at Cole Valley in the first round.
Unfortunately, all three of these teams are on the same side of the bracket, potentially opening the door for a surprise team.
CLASS 1A DIVISION I
THE FAVORITE: Lapwai (20-1) remains one of Idaho’s top teams year in and year out.
The defending champs are back at state for the 21st straight year, the longest active streak in any classification. And they field the state’s most explosive offense in any classification at 65.9 points per game. They even put up 101 points in a Jan. 7 win.
Lapwai ought to cruise into the finals.
THE CONTENDER: Prairie (20-3) poses the toughest challenge to Lapwai’s repeat. Led by reigning 1A Division I player of the year Madison Shears and the classification’s toughest defense (30.4 ppg), the Pirates only fell by five points to Lapwai in the district final.
A potential rematch would take place in the finals.
THE DARK HORSE: Grace (18-3) looms as the top threat to the Whitepine League’s dominance. Maniah Clegg, a 6-foot senior forward and reigning first-team All-Idaho pick, gives the Grizzlies a size advantage that’s hard to match at this level. That could throw a wrench in Lapwai’s up-tempo style in a semifinal matchup.
CLASS 1A DIVISION II
THE FAVORITE: Tri-Valley (17-3) won a state volleyball championship in the fall, the first title in the combined athletic program’s history. Now it can add a basketball championship banner to its rafters.
The Titans remain undefeated against 1A Division II competition and even have three wins over 3A teams on their resume.
Emma Hollon and Josey Jones give Tri-Valley a dynamic one-two punch capable of making more history.
THE CONTENDER: Mackay (16-3) stands as the hottest team in Idaho, winning 13 in a row by an average of 31.7 points per game. That includes a 13-point win over defending state champ Rockland in the district championship game.
But the Miners face a large first-round hurdle in Carey, the defending state runner-up and home to reigning state player of the year Kylie Wood.
THE DARK HORSE: No. 1-ranked Rockland (18-4) was the clear tournament favorite until losing the district title to Mackay. But a wounded Bulldogs squad could be even more dangerous in a three-day tournament.
This story was originally published February 16, 2021 at 3:50 PM.
