Keys to victory, betting line and prediction for Boise State’s road game at rival BYU
The Boise State football team is under .500 through five games for the first time since 2001, but this isn’t unfamiliar territory for everybody in the program.
Boise State (2-3) coach Andy Avalos was a freshman linebacker for the Broncos when they started that 2001 season at 2-3, and he saw what it took for the team to pull itself out of that hole.
“Sometimes you have to go through some things that re-establish the foundation and re-establish what it means to be a part of a place like this,” Avalos said after Boise State’s 41-31 loss to Nevada at Albertsons Stadium last Saturday.
Avalos said he met with his 15-member leadership council — made up of players from every position — on Sunday and reminded the group that the season is far from over. Boise State has a big game in front of it against No. 10 BYU (5-0) on Saturday (1:30 p.m., ABC), but the Broncos’ goal of a Mountain West championship is still very much on the table, he said.
“Our goals are still out in front of us, but it’s going to take us being at our best every single day,” Avalos said. “We’re not going to sacrifice what we’re doing right now to look out for the future. It is about right now.”
Notes
▪ Boise State linebacker Riley Whimpey was named a candidate for the Senior CLASS Award on Wednesday. An acronym for Celebrating Loyalty and Achievement for Staying in School, the nationwide award goes to a senior selected by his performance in four areas: community, classroom, character and competition.
Whimpey led the Broncos in tackles in each of the past two seasons, and he’s second on the team this fall with 33. He is also a four-time Academic All-Mountain West and was named a 2020-21 CoSIDA Academic All-American. He has a 3.82 GPA, and the sixth-year senior is also a semifinalist for the William V. Campbell Trophy, which goes to the top football scholar-athlete in the country.
Boise State nickel Kekaula Kaniho won the 2020 Senior CLASS Award.
▪ Boise State tight ends coach Kent Riddle said Tuesday that he expects redshirt junior Riley Smith back on the field Saturday at BYU. Smith missed the Broncos’ loss to Nevada with an undisclosed injury. He has five catches for 50 yards this season.
▪ BYU offensive coordinator Aaron Roderick said Wednesday that all four quarterbacks are getting reps in practice and none has been ruled out of Saturday’s game, but Jaren Hall is closer to playing than Baylor Romney, according to Deseret News reporter Jay Drew. Hall has missed the past two games with bruised ribs. Romney suffered a likely concussion last week at Utah State.
Keys to victory
Win on third down: Boise State’s defense held up sometimes on third down against Nevada last week, allowing the Wolf Pack to convert first downs on 6-of-14 attempts. The Broncos have allowed opponents to move the chains on third down 45% of the time, which ranks No. 110 in the country. Boise State is going to need a good performance from its defense on third down to get a win at BYU on Saturday.
BYU isn’t a big-play offense. The Cougars average 6.3 yards a play, but they run the ball effectively, which helps keep them in third-and-short situations. That’s where the Broncos have to find a way to get the Cougars’ offense off the field. Boise State needs penetration from its defensive linemen to get BYU’s big running backs moving laterally. Linebackers Whimpey and Ezekiel Noa are going to have to fill gaps better than they have all season, and defensive backs JL Skinner, Tyreque Jones and Kaniho are going to have to help shut down the run. More than anything, the Broncos have to avoid the tackling issues that plagued them early in the season.
Make BYU throw the ball: Unlike Nevada — a team with an offense built around the deep passing game — BYU relies heavily on the running game. The Cougars average 35.8 rushing attempts and 177.8 yards a game, and 55 of their 106 first downs have come via rushes. Running back Tyler Allgeier racked up 218 yards and three touchdowns in BYU’s 34-20 win at Utah State last weekend, and he’s well on his way to a second straight 1,000-yard rushing season, with 564 yards and seven touchdowns through five games.
BYU isn’t going to disguise what it’s trying to do. It’s going to line up and try to overpower Boise State at the line of scrimmage, so the Broncos are going to have to commit some extra players to stopping the run, thereby forcing BYU to throw the ball.
Whether it’s playing Skinner or Jones near the line of scrimmage or going with a four-defensive lineman or three-linebacker set, Boise State needs to get as many bodies as possible in the tackle box to make picking up yards a daunting task. Of course, that means the Broncos’ defensive backs are going to have to be prepared to win one-on-one battles when BYU does throw.
Help the offensive line: Be it opening holes for running backs or protecting quarterback Hank Bachmeier, Boise State’s offensive line just isn’t getting it done this year. Bachmeier has been sacked 13 times, and he’s probably been hit twice as many times as that. The Broncos also rank last in the Mountain West with just 74.4 rushing yards a game.
Some of Boise State’s struggles boil down to a lack of quality depth. Center Kekaniokoa Holomalia-Gonzalez hasn’t played this season for undisclosed reasons, and his backups have struggled. Guards Jake Stetz and Garrett Curran have both missed games because of injuries, and right tackle Ben Dooley moved to guard against Nevada. Left tackle John Ojukwu is the only starter on the offensive line who has played the same position in all five games this season.
Boise State’s coaches have to find ways to help the offensive line. Maybe that means keeping more tight ends and running backs on the field to help in pass protection. Maybe it means motioning tight ends into the backfield to add extra blockers on running plays, or involving the wide receivers in the rushing attack the way the Broncos did in a win at Utah State. However they do it, Boise State has to find ways to neutralize BYU’s advantage in the trenches.
Key matchups
Boise State LB Riley Whimpey vs. BYU RB Tyler Allgeier: Allgeier is a former walk-on and he moved to linebacker for a couple of seasons before returning to running back. He was actually BYU’s leading tackler with nine stops in a 28-25 win over Boise Sate in 2019. His mentality and size (5-foot-10, 220 pounds) make him tough to bring down, and he showed an impressive burst against Utah State — scoring on runs of 59 and 22 yards, and reeling off a 67-yard run. He posted the first 200-yard rushing game of his career against the Aggies, and Allgeier is averaging 20.4 carries a game.
Allgeier is sure to factor heavily into BYU’s game plan on Saturday, so Boise State’s linebackers — Whimpey in particular — are going to have to be as active as ever to slow him down. Whimpey has been the Broncos’ leading tackler the past two years, and he led the team with seven stops against Nevada. The Broncos’ coaches have taken him off the field some this year in favor of packages featuring six defensive backs, but that isn’t likely to be the case at BYU.
Boise State WR Khalil Shakir vs. BYU’s secondary: BYU coach Kalani Sitake called Boise State wide receiver Khalil Shakir “one of the most dynamic receivers in college football” during his weekly press conference on Monday. Boise State needs Shakir to be exactly that on Saturday, and the Broncos’ coaches need to give him every opportunity to prove Sitake correct.
Shakir caught just four passes for 70 yards last weekend against Nevada. He was targeted seven times in the passing game and didn’t have a carry after lining up at wildcat quarterback and carrying the ball six times at Utah State. Boise State offensive coordinator Tim Plough admitted on Monday that Shakir didn’t get enough touches against Nevada. With as little as the Broncos are getting out of the running game right now, Shakir needs the ball in his hands a bare minimum of 15 times a game — and that’s not counting punt and kick returns.
Predictions
Boise State is 7-4 all-time against BYU, but the Cougars have won the past two. The Broncos are 2-3 at LaVell Edwards Stadium in Provo, Utah, and they’re 15-21 all-time against teams ranked in the AP Top 25, having lost four in a row. Boise State is 5-3 against top-10 opponents, and it’s the second year in a row that the Broncos face a BYU team ranked in the top 10. The Cougars were No. 9 when they won 51-17 at Albertsons Stadium last season.
BYU is a 5.5-point favorite, according to Las Vegas, with an over/under of 57.5 points. The Cougars are 17-3 in their past 20 regular-season games as a favorite at home and 10-9-1 against the spread. Boise State is 6-14 in its past 20 regular-season games as an underdog on the road and 13-6-1 ATS.
My pick (3-2 straight up, 3-2 ATS): Boise State’s lack of difference makers and quality depth on the offensive and defensive lines has been exposed this season. BYU, on the other hand, has a big offensive line, a powerful running back and a suffocating defensive front seven. That’s not good for the Broncos, who have struggled to run the ball against teams without near as much star power on defense.
It also doesn’t help that nobody outside of the program knows how healthy Boise State running back George Holani is. That being said, BYU is going to have trouble hanging with Boise State wide receivers Shakir and Stefan Cobbs, and in a game where quarterback Hank Bachmeier might have to throw the ball 50 times, you never know what could happen. I think BYU’s running game is going to be too much for Boise State to handle, though, and I think the Cougars pull away in the second half. Final score: BYU 42, Boise State 28
Betting expert Lee Sterling of Paramount Sports, who appears weekly on KTIK (4-1 straight up, 2-3 ATS): Looking for revenge are the Broncos for being embarrassed last year, 51-17. They’ve been blowing leads but you can blow a lead as an underdog and still cover. I doubt they turn the ball over three times again this week. Boise State QB Bachmeier, I think he can trade shots here. Both quarterbacks from BYU have been really banged up. As long as (the Broncos) play a sound game, BYU is not really a runner, either. I think they let the late second and early third (quarters) get away from them (last week vs. Nevada). The Wolf Pack ran last week on them in key situations and opened up the defense, and I don’t know that BYU is going to do that. This is where the Broncos play their best ball. (They are) 8-3 as a dog. I’m going to say BYU wins 37-34. I’ll take the points, but it wouldn’t shock me if Boise (State) wins outright. Final score: BYU 37, Boise State 34
THIS WEEK’S COVERAGE
‘Fuel to the fire’: BYU’s Kodak moment on The Blue is major motivation for Boise State
‘It’s been bad’: Boise State’s season likely hinges on fixing offensive line problems
Fans guide: How to watch Boise State’s football game against BYU
Ask a BYU writer: QB injuries plague Cougars; Boise State to face dynamic running game
Will Boise State-BYU rivalry survive Cougars’ move to Big 12? Bolt moving to defense?
Idaho ties in the NFL: Kellen Moore praise continues; former Bronco scores another TD
Mountain West’s best are passing by Boise State, which must adjust, regain its swagger
BOISE STATE AT NO. 10 BYU
When: 1:30 p.m. Saturday
Where: LaVell Edwards Stadium, Provo, Utah
TV: ABC (Dave Pasch, Dusty Dvoracek, Tom Luginbill). That’s channel 6 on Sparklight and DirecTV and channel 6 or 5250 on Dish Network.
Radio: KBOI 670 AM/KTIK 93.1 FM (Bob Behler, Pete Cavender)
Records: Boise State 2-3; BYU 5-0
Series: Boise State is 7-4 all-time against BYU, but the Broncos have lost two in a row in the series.
Vegas line: BYU by 5.5
Weather: High of 55 degrees, 58% chance of rain, 8 mph winds
This story was originally published October 7, 2021 at 4:00 AM.
