Keys to victory, betting line and prediction for Boise State home game vs. Nevada
Boise State safety JL Skinner said he didn’t even know there was a rivalry between the Broncos and Nevada.
That’s not the case for Boise State cornerbacks coach Jeron Johnson. He was a safety at Boise State the last time the Broncos lost to Nevada, an overtime game the Wolf Pack won 34-31 in Reno in 2010.
The Broncos led by 17 at halftime, 24-7, but Nevada star and former San Francisco 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick led a second-half comeback, throwing a touchdown pass to tie the score with 13 seconds left in regulation. After Boise State missed field goals at the end of regulation and in OT, the Wolf Pack connected on a 34-yard field goal to win it.
Boise State’s rivalry with Nevada spans five decades and four conferences, but the teams haven’t met since 2018. Johnson admitted that the rivalry isn’t as heated as it used to be, but he’s been doing his best this week to make sure his players understand the significance it once held.
“It was a big rivalry for me and for my era of Boise State football, and I still hold on to it,” said Johnson, joking that he may have to find a way to get on the field Saturday.
Boise State (2-2) has since won six straight games against Nevada (2-1), and the Broncos need to make it seven in a row on Saturday (1:30 p.m., FS1) if they want to keep their hopes of a fifth consecutive appearance in the Mountain West championship game alive.
The Broncos still have road games at No. 18 Fresno State (Nov. 6) and San Diego State (Nov. 16), and a home tilt against Wyoming (Nov. 12) on the schedule. Those teams are a combined 12-1 with three wins over Power Five teams this season, so Boise State can’t afford a letdown on Saturday.
Note
▪ Boise State linebacker Riley Whimpey was named a semifinalist for the William V. Campbell Trophy on Wednesday. The award goes to the best football scholar-athlete in the nation and takes academic success, football performance and exemplary leadership into account.
Whimpey led Boise State in tackles each of the past two seasons, and he ranks third on the team with 26 through the first four games of 2021. He’s also a four-time Academic All-Mountain West pick and was named a CoSIDA Academic All-American earlier this year. He boasts a 3.82 GPA and joins fifth-year nickel Kekaula Kaniho and former Boise State center Mason Hampton as semifinalists for the award in recent years. Kaniho was a finalist last year.
Keys to victory
Stay stingy in the red zone: Boise State has given up some yards this season. The Broncos are surrendering 420 a game, which ranks No. 9 out of 12 teams in the Mountain West, and 210 of those yards are coming on the ground. The Broncos’ defense has found ways to stand tall in the red zone, though. Opponents have scored on just 8-of-14 red zone trips this fall, and they’ve come away with touchdowns just five times.
That stinginess needs to continue on Saturday. Nevada is going to put up some yards. The Wolf Pack are led by quarterback Carson Strong, who is seen by most as NFL-ready. He’s throwing to a pair of players who are also probably going to end up playing on Sundays in wide receiver Romeo Doubs and tight end Cole Turner. The bend-but-don’t-break approach worked for Boise State at Utah State last week, and the Broncos have to find ways to make Nevada settle for field goals.
“Our mentality in the red zone is three or nothing,” Boise State co-defensive coordinator Spencer Danielson said. “At the end of the day, our guys have been making plays when they need to.”
Don’t let Doubs beat you deep: The Broncos have been susceptible to giving up big plays this season. Boise State’s defense has given up 41 plays of 20 yards or more. It’s given up nine that covered over 30 yards and five that covered at least 40. The Broncos gave up a 75-yard touchdown run against Oklahoma State. Nevada’s run game hasn’t gashed many teams with big runs this year, but the Wolf Pack will challenge you through the air.
Doubs is one of the most dangerous deep threats in the conference, if not the country. He averaged 155 receiving yards a game and hauled in nine touchdowns in the first five games of last season. His only 100-yard receiving game since then was two weeks ago against Kansas State, when he racked up seven catches for 121 yards. But Nevada goes into every game with a goal of taking a couple of deep shots to Doubs, and the Broncos’ secondary has to be ready for it.
Whether Boise State’s defensive backs get physical with Doubs at the line to throw off his timing, double team him or shade a safety to whatever side of the field he’s on, Boise State can’t let him get deep on Saturday. The Broncos have proved they can limit the points a team scores when it’s forced to put together long drives.
Keep the turnovers coming: After producing just three turnovers in seven games last season, Boise State is tied for No. 2 in the country with 12 takeaways in four games this fall. The Broncos have forced multiple turnovers in every game, including six in a 54-13 win over UTEP, and that trend needs to continue against Nevada on Saturday.
Boise State’s secondary set a goal this spring of creating three turnovers every practice. The Broncos kept a running tally of which players forced the most takeaways on a turnover board, and the mentality that created has carried over into the season. They’ve forced at least three turnovers twice this fall, including last week at Utah State, when the Broncos came up with two interceptions and a fumble.
Cornerback Tyric LeBeauf leads the Broncos with three interceptions and safety JL Skinner leads the team with two forced fumbles. A couple more turnovers this weekend will help Boise State improve to 2-0 in Mountain West play.
Key matchups
Boise State’s safeties vs. Nevada tight end Turner: Boise State will face one of the most athletic tight ends it will see all season on Saturday in the 6-foot-6, 240-pound senior. He’s been described by many as a wide receiver with the body of a tight end, and he’s shown off that athleticism. Turner opened the season with seven catches for 75 yards in a win at Cal, and he’s second on the team with 14 catches to go along with 135 yards and a touchdown.
Turner will line up in the slot and on the line as a traditional tight end. Wherever he lines up, Skinner (6-4, 218) and fellow Boise State safety Tyreque Jones (6-2, 205) are going to have to get physical with him to negate his size, especially in the red zone.
Boise State’s edge rushers vs. Nevada QB Strong: Boise State has faced quarterbacks able to burn teams with their legs in each of its first four games, but that won’t be the case on Saturday. Strong has an NFL-caliber arm, but taking off and running with the ball is a last resort for him. He would much rather stand in the pocket, go through his progressions and find ways to hurt teams with his arm. That means making him uncomfortable in the pocket with a steady pass rush is going to be even more important.
Boise State has produced nine sacks so far this season, and all but one has been recorded by a defensive lineman or edge rusher. Defensive tackle Scott Matlock leads the team with three sacks, while defensive end Shane Irwin and edge Isaiah Bagnah each have two.
Edge Demitri Washington doesn’t have a sack yet this year. He was in line to replace former sacks leader Curtis Weaver last season, but suffered a knee injury in week two and missed the rest of the season. Saturday would be the perfect time for him to get that first sack.
“With a team that runs the ball 20 times a game, you have to get after that quarterback,” Washington said. “(Strong) can make all the throws, so we’ve just got to be there and make plays.”
Predictions
Boise State is 30-13 all-time against Nevada, and the Broncos have won 16 of their past 17 in the series. Boise State is 18-2 at home against Nevada, and the Broncos have won nine of the longtime rivals’ past 10 meetings in Albertsons Stadium.
Boise State has won 20 consecutive regular-season games against teams from the Mountain West. Its last regular-season loss to a conference opponent was Oct. 26, 2018, against San Diego State. The Broncos lost to San Jose State in the conference championship game last season.
The Broncos are a 6.5-point favorite, according to Las Vegas, with an over/under of 58.5 points. Boise State is 17-3 overall in its past 20 regular-season games as a favorite at home and 13-7 against the spread. Nevada is 5-15 in its past 20 games as an underdog on the road and 8-12 ATS.
My pick (3-1 straight up, 3-1 ATS): A creative game plan and excellent red-zone defense helped Boise State win its 22nd straight conference opener last week at Utah State. But the Broncos’ offense still hasn’t put together a full game this season. Picking up rushing yards with fly sweeps, quarterback runs and wildcat packages isn’t the same as the running backs grinding out tough yards. For Boise State’s offense to really fire on all cylinders, the running backs — George Holani in particular — have to prove they’re a threat so the defense begins to hesitate long enough to open things up for the passing game.
I think Boise State’s coaches get Holani heavily involved on Saturday, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him with the ball in his hands at least 20 times. I think Nevada has enough offense to score some points and keep it close, but I also think Boise State’s defense continues its opportunistic ways and forces a couple of turnovers. I’ll take Boise State to win but Nevada to cover. Final score: Boise State 35, Nevada 31
Betting expert Lee Sterling of Paramount Sports, who appears weekly on KTIK (3-1 straight up, 1-3 ATS): Both teams are going to throw the ball. Bachmeier and Carson Strong, they’ll give you the coach speak and say they want balance and this and that, but Boise is not much of a runner. Neither is the Wolf Pack. The Pack is rested. That bye will help them here. They’re 6-2 against the spread in the series, even though they have not beaten Boise State since going all the way back to 2010 with Colin Kaepernick. Kansas State smashmouthed the Pack, and that’s how you beat them. You’ve got to run the football. And I don’t think that’s Boise’s style here. I think it goes to the wire and the wrong team is favored. Even without Cooks, one of their star receivers, I think (Nevada) can get by in the short term, game planning. Give me the Wolf Pack outright. Final score: Nevada 31, Boise State 27
THIS WEEK’S COVERAGE
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Boise State to face potential No. 1 pick; Nevada loses receiver; Harsin shuffles staff
Ask a Nevada writer: NFL-caliber passing attack leads old rival against Boise State
Kickoff time set for Boise State’s rivalry game at BYU, which could air on network TV
NEVADA AT BOISE STATE
When: 1:30 p.m. Saturday
Where: Albertsons Stadium
TV: FS1 (Alex Faust, Petros Papadakis). That’s channel 146 on Sparklight, 219 on DirecTV and 150 on Dish Network.
Radio: KBOI 670 AM/KTIK 93.1 FM (Bob Behler, Pete Cavender)
Records: Boise State 2-2; Nevada 2-1
Series: Boise State is 30-13 all-time against Nevada, and the Broncos have won six in a row against the Wolf Pack.
Vegas line: Boise State by 6.5
Weather: High of 76 degrees, 2% chance of rain, 6 mph winds
This story was originally published September 30, 2021 at 3:30 PM.
