Keys to victory, betting line and prediction for Boise State’s home game vs. Oklahoma St.
Boise State’s Albertsons Stadium is known nationwide for its iconic blue turf, and crowd noise has made it one of the country’s toughest venues for opposing teams.
Crowd noise helped account for 44 false start penalties by opposing offenses in 2018 and 2019, and the 35,518 fans in attendance for last week’s game against UTEP played a role in the Miners’ three false starts.
Oklahoma State coach Mike Gundy said he isn’t concerned, though. His Cowboys will be the first team from the Big 12 to play a regular-season game in Albertsons Stadium on Saturday (7 p.m., FS1), and he said he spent time this week making sure his players stay focused on what’s happening on the field, not what color it is.
“My personal opinion is that (Boise State has) a unique situation there,” Gundy told reporters on Monday. “They kind of live in their own world out there and have their own way of thinking. As an outsider looking in, it’s pretty cool what they did. But our preparation and focus in getting ready to play and compete out there should overcome the color of the turf.”
Oklahoma State (2-0) is coming off back-to-back wins over Missouri State and Tulsa — both of which were closer than they should have been. Boise State (1-1) bounced back last week with a dominant performance against UTEP after a disappointing loss to UCF in the season opener.
Both teams open conference play next week and want to do so on the heels of a win, but a strong performance on Saturday could mean a whole lot more to the Broncos.
Reports surfaced last week about a potential second round of expansion by the Big 12 — just when the league approved the addition of UCF, BYU, Houston and Cincinnati.
Boise State and Memphis seem like obvious targets if more teams are added, so Saturday’s game becomes an audition of sorts for the Broncos. A win or even a hotly contested loss could be a feather in their cap. A lackluster performance could hurt in terms of a jump to a Power Five conference.
Note: Boise State lost a second recruit from its 2022 class on Thursday when defensive lineman Mason Graham flipped his commitment to Michigan. Graham — a three-star prospect from Servite High in California — verbally committed to Boise State in July. He’s the second recruit to leave the class for a Big Ten school, following quarterback Katin Houser, who flipped to Michigan State in June.
Keys to victory
Win at the line of scrimmage: Running the ball and stopping the run are at the top of the Broncos’ to-do list every week, according to Boise State’s coaches, but doing so may not be as important at any point this season as it is on Saturday.
Boise State’s backfield has yet to have the services of a healthy George Holani, and the Broncos struggled to run the ball in their first two games. With Holani on the sideline, they managed just 20 rushing yards in the season opener at UCF. They put up 136 yards on the ground last week against UTEP. The good news is Avalos said Monday that Holani won’t be on a snap count this week. The bad news is Oklahoma State is giving up just 112.5 rushing yards a game.
Defensively, Boise State’s only chance at a win on Saturday is if it stops Oklahoma State’s multifaceted running game, which starts with quarterback Spencer Sanders and actually has struggled to start the season. He is the team’s leading rusher after posting 62 yards in his season debut last week against Tulsa. Running backs LD Brown and Jaylen Warren have both carried the ball more than 20 times through the first two games of the season, but both average just 2.3 yards a carry.
“They do a good job of putting you in conflict with stopping the run and having different pass options on the outside,” Boise State co-defensive coordinator Spencer Danielson said. “They do a good job of knowing how to attack a defense, and they do a great job of game planning.”
Keep protecting Bachmeier: Boise State quarterback Hank Bachmeier has taken some hits through the first two weeks of the season, but the Broncos have given up only one sack. Bachmeier needs that kind of protection again on Saturday. The cleaner his jersey is at the end of the game, the more likely it is that the Broncos pull off the win.
Boise State offensive coordinator Tim Plough praised left tackle John Ojukwu this week — calling him one of the most consistently dominant players on offense — and the coaches have been pleased with Ben Dooley’s first two starts at right tackle. Bachmeier deserves some of the credit for taking fewer sacks, though. Staying within his timing and getting the ball out of his hands more quickly has been his focus.
The Broncos’ ability to get more comfortable with the tempo Plough wants to run has also played a role in limiting sacks. Boise State played fast last week against UTEP and substituted players at a dizzying pace. If the Broncos can execute with the same kind of efficiency this weekend, Oklahoma State’s defenders are going to have trouble lining up correctly, much less getting to the quarterback. The Cowboys have posted seven sacks in their first two games, though.
Test the Cowboys’ young receivers: The Cowboys expect to have senior wide receiver Tay Martin back Saturday after he missed last week’s win over Tulsa with an injury, but Oklahoma State is very young at the position this year.
The team’s leading receiver heading into this weekend is true freshman Jaden Bray — a former three-star recruit who has six catches for 136 yards and a touchdown. Martin is second on the team with 107 yards and a touchdown, but the receivers just behind him in the stat column are sophomore Brennan Presley (8 catches, 103 yards) and true freshman Bryson Green (5 catches, 57 yards, TD).
The fact that they’re young doesn’t mean Oklahoma State’s receivers can’t do damage, but Boise State’s defensive backs can take advantage of their lack of experience. The Broncos’ cornerbacks need to get in the receivers’ faces early with press coverage, and get physical at the line of scrimmage to disrupt routes.
The more safety JL Skinner and cornerback Markel Reed play with a headhunter’s mentality, the way they did last week, the less likely it is that one of those young receivers will be focused enough to make a game-changing play.
Key matchups
Boise State LB Zeke Noa vs. Oklahoma State’s backfield: Boise State won’t have the services of linebacker Riley Whimpey for the first half Saturday because he was called for a targeting penalty last week against UTEP. Redshirt junior Brandon Hawkins is expected to fill in for him, but that means the burden of communicating defensive calls and filling run gaps early in the game will fall on redshirt senior Ezekiel Noa.
Noa has started 11 games the past two seasons and would have started more had he not suffered a season-ending injury in week four of the 2019 season. He’s no stranger to the pressure that comes with big games, but he’s going to have his hands full.
If Noa and the rest of the defense can keep the Cowboys’ running game in check for the first half, Whimpey stepping onto the field fresh in the second half could be the boost the Broncos need to secure the win.
Boise State K Jonah Dalmas vs. Oklahoma State K Alex Hale: This feels like a game that’s going to be close the whole way, so the kickers are going to have to be ready.
Jonah Dalmas handled field goal duties for the Broncos last season as a true freshman. He finished the season 8-of-9, and his longest field goal of the season covered 51 yards in the Mountain West championship game against San Jose State. Dalmas earned himself a scholarship last season, but he hasn’t been faced with a game-winning kick yet. That may change on Saturday. He’s 5-for-5 on field goals this season after connecting on all four attempts against UTEP.
Oklahoma State kicker Alex Hale is 1-for-1 on field goals this season, with his only attempt coming from 35 yards in the season opener against Missouri State. The redshirt junior went 13-of-14 last year and was an honorable mention All-Big 12 pick despite missing the final five games of the season with an injury. At the time of his injury, he led all FBS kickers with 2.17 made field goals a game.
Predictions
Boise State is 2-2 all-time against teams from the Big 12, and Oklahoma State won the first meeting between the programs, 44-21, in 2018. The Broncos are 29-2 in nonconference home games since 2006. Their only losses during that span were against Virginia (42-23) in 2017 and BYU (51-17) last season.
The Broncos are a 3.5-point favorite in Saturday’s game, according to Las Vegas, with an over/under of 57.5 points. Boise State opened this week as a 4.5-point favorite. The Broncos are 17-3 in their last 20 regular-season games as a favorite at home and 13-7 against the spread. Oklahoma State is 7-13 in its last 20 regular-season games as an underdog on the road and 12-8 ATS.
My pick (2-0 straight up, 1-1 ATS): This feels like a game that won’t be decided until the final couple of drives, and one where whichever team can control the line of scrimmage is going to win it. Neither team has been dominant on the ground this year, but Oklahoma State is determined to run the ball, whether it’s with athletic quarterback Sanders or a long list of capable running backs.
If Boise State RB Holani is healthy enough to get back to the form he showed while posting 1,014 rushing yards as a true freshman in 2019, the Broncos have a chance to win this one in impressive fashion. I think Sanders’ athleticism and Oklahoma State’s experience on defense keep it close, but Boise State does just enough to win it thanks to a big turnover. Final score: Boise State 20, Oklahoma State 17
Betting expert Lee Sterling of Paramount Sports, who appears weekly on KTIK (2-0 straight up, 0-2 ATS): I’m watching Oklahoma State — and I started noticing it a couple years ago — they used to have incredible offensive talent and the last guys left. Tylan Wallace, gone. Dillon Stoner, gone. Chuba Hubbard, gone. Their two quarterbacks don’t scare me. This is just not a good offensive team. They’re actually better defensively. They should have lost the game last week against Tulsa. They were bailed out by a kickoff return for a touchdown.
I like what Andy Avalos is building here. I love the first half against UCF. Can they have a whole game like that? Maybe not. But I don’t think they need their A game. I think they can get by with a B+ or B game against Oklahoma State. And I’m watching Khalil Shakir and he’s unguardable right now. I don’t think Oklahoma State has the guys who can stop him. I just think this is a punchless Cowboy team, and I like Boise State by double digits. Final score: Boise State 30, Oklahoma State 20
THIS WEEK’S COVERAGE
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OKLAHOMA STATE AT BOISE STATE
When: 7 p.m. Saturday
Where: Albertsons Stadium
TV: FS1 (Aaron Goldsmith, Mark Helfrich). That’s channel 146 on Sparklight, 219 on DirecTV and 150 on Dish Network.
Radio: KBOI 670 AM/KTIK 93.1 FM (Bob Behler, Pete Cavender)
Records: Boise State 1-1; Oklahoma State 2-0
Series: This is the second meeting between the programs. Oklahoma State won the first, 44-21, in Stillwater, Oklahoma, in 2018.
Vegas line: Boise State by 3.5
Weather: 68 degrees at kickoff, 10% chance of rain, 17 mph winds
Ron Counts is the Idaho Statesman’s Boise State football beat writer. Contact him at rcounts@idahostatesman.com and follow @Ron_BroncoBeat on Twitter.
This story was originally published September 17, 2021 at 5:00 PM.
