Three keys — and three score predictions — as Boise State tries to win its division
There’s a troubling theme to the Boise State football team’s four road trips so far this season.
In three of those games, the Broncos fell behind by at least 14 points.
They overcame a 31-13 first-half deficit at Florida State, couldn’t quite dig out of a 28-10 hole in a loss at BYU and spent most of the night fighting back from an early 14-0 deficit in a win at San Jose State.
This has been a comeback team — the Broncos also have trailed in the second half of home games against Air Force and Wyoming — but they likely can’t afford another ugly start Saturday at Utah State (8:30 p.m., CBS Sports Network). A win would clinch the Mountain Division title for the Broncos; a loss would create a three-team race with one week left.
The Aggies’ 6-4 record is a bit misleading, with losses at Wake Forest, LSU and Air Force and a home loss to BYU. They’re 5-1 in the Mountain West with wins at San Diego State and Fresno State and 12-2 in conference games since the start of last season, when Boise State beat Utah State at the end of the regular season in the game that decided the Mountain Division title.
This will be a hungry, energized — probably even peeved — Utah State that Boise State meets at Maverik Stadium.
“You just have to be ready to play the entire game,” Boise State coach Bryan Harsin said. “It’s not going to go perfectly. You need to know that there’s opportunities that are going to be presented to you. Take advantage of it.”
Three Keys
1. Who are the quarterbacks? Utah State starter Jordan Love was knocked out of last week’s game against Wyoming, and Boise State starter Hank Bachmeier and backup Chase Cord sat last week against New Mexico. Bachmeier has missed three of the past four games.
So it’s possible one of the marquee games of the Mountain West season will come down to a showdown between Utah State backup Henry Colombi and Boise State third-stringer Jaylon Henderson. Boise State already has played in two games like that this year — the Broncos lost to BYU third-stringer Baylor Romney and they beat Wyoming backup Tyler Vander Waal in overtime in the two games started by Cord.
Bachmeier is the Mountain West’s most efficient quarterback. If he can’t go, that’s advantage Utah State, no matter who plays for the Aggies.
2. Which run game delivers? With quarterback issues, there will be more pressure on both offenses to run the ball effectively.
Boise State ranks 65th nationally at 4.48 yards per carry; Utah State is 72nd at 4.26. Boise State is 22nd in rushing defense at 3.44; Utah State is 53rd at 3.96.
With neither rushing attack producing consistently this season, and with both defenses likely to provide significant resistance, it’ll come down to which running back can make something happen and which offensive line can exert its will in the second half. Last year, running back Alexander Mattison carried the Broncos past the Aggies with 200 rushing yards and three touchdowns on 37 carries — an effort that helped land him in the NFL.
3. Can Utah State stop John Hightower? Boise State’s senior wide receiver has built a case for Mountain West Offensive Player of the Year. He has 754 receiving yards and six touchdowns on just 37 catches, which is at least 15 fewer than the four MW receivers who have more yards than he does. Hightower also has rushed for 141 yards, has taken snaps as a wildcat quarterback and is used as a decoy in the run game. He has completed one pass, too. More and more, it appears the Broncos’ offense runs through him — and that’s an unusual thing to say about a wide receiver.
Three Predictions
Boise State is a 9-point favorite in Las Vegas with an over/under of 53 total points. The Broncos are 21-12 against the spread in their past 33 games.
Utah State is 16-7 ATS in its past 23 games but 3-4 in its past seven.
My pick (8-2 straight up, 4-6 ATS): If Bachmeier starts, I might take a different approach. But the Broncos’ road struggles hint at trouble — and you can bet the Aggies have been looking forward to this game for a year, since their dream season evaporated at Albertsons Stadium in the 2018 regular-season finale. The quarterback uncertainty on both sides makes predictions tricky. Go with the theme of the season — Boise State falls behind and battles back, but this time comes up just short. Utah State 27, Boise State 24
Utah State perspective, from Jason Turner of The Herald Journal in Logan, Utah (opponent view is 4-4, 4-4): “A couple of weeks ago, I was convinced Utah State had no chance of upsetting Boise State. However, the Aggies were resilient in back-to-back wins over Fresno State and Wyoming. Jordan Love got back on track and played like the dynamic quarterback from last year’s record-setting team. USU’s defense seemingly figured out how to adjust to life without All-American linebacker David Woodward. This Aggies team is pretty tough, battle tested and difficult to beat at home. Nevertheless, USU has too many deficiencies to knock off a seasoned BSU team, especially if Love is unable to play. The Aggies have been anemic in the red zone, and that will loom large Saturday.” Boise State 31, Utah State 23
Betting expert Lee Sterling of Paramount Sports, who appears weekly on KTIK (7-2, 4-5): “This is the toughest game I’ve ever seen to try to handicap. We don’t know the status of either starter, and without them it’s a serious downgrade. ... Last couple games, I’m seeing some growth (from Utah State). I have Utah State pulling the upset if Love plays.” Utah State 31, Boise State 24
Chadd Cripe is the Idaho Statesman’s assistant editor and sports columnist. Contact him at ccripe@idahostatesman.com and follow @chaddcripe on Twitter.
