Three keys — and three score predictions — for Boise State’s showdown with Hawaii
The Boise State football team still is searching for the elusive complete game — one where the Broncos perform well in all three phases, and in both halves.
And the No. 14 Broncos (5-0 overall, 2-0 Mountain West) might need it Saturday night at Albertsons Stadium against talented, experienced, tested Hawaii (4-1, 1-0).
The Rainbow Warriors have the offensive playmakers and strong pass defense to give the Broncos trouble on both sides of the ball. They also have some swagger after beating Pac-12 opponents Arizona and Oregon State and absolutely demolishing Nevada, which was considered a possible contender in the West Division.
This team is not even related to the Hawaii squads that Boise State dismantled in 2015 and 2016 by a combined score of 107-16 — the last times the former WAC rivals met.
“(We learned at Nevada) that they’re not scared of ghosts,” Hawaii coach Nick Rolovich said of his team, according to the Honolulu Star-Advertiser. “They’re not scared of Christmas past. They’re very now, here and now, and they’ve really taken that approach all offseason.”
Boise State coach Bryan Harsin recognized the challenge his team will face — he referenced the Warriors as the best team the Broncos will have faced immediately after the UNLV win last week.
His players have embraced that idea, too. They know the extended lulls that have hampered the offense all season and the sloppy second-half defense of the past two games won’t be good enough.
“Last week we didn’t finish how we wanted to, and there was little mistakes throughout the game,” Boise State senior defensive end Chase Hatada said. “... This week, that’s a big focus for us, being able to finish, because these Hawaii guys, they are going to finish and they’re going to be going for four quarters, so we’ve got to do the same.”
Three Keys
1. Run the ball: We’ll keep this here until the Broncos actually do it. In the past four games, starting tailback Robert Mahone has 35 carries for 159 yards (4.54 yards per carry) — decent efficiency but a stunningly low number of attempts.
The Broncos have faced defenses that focus on the run, so offensive coordinator Zak Hill says he has called fewer run plays. The Broncos have averaged 33.8 rushing attempts over the past four games; they averaged about 40 last year.
They likely will run it more against Hawaii because of the Warriors’ style of defense. They allow 5.3 yards per carry, which ranks 120th in the nation.
“We want to get our run game going,” Hill said. “And that helps everything else.”
2. Tackle in space: The Warriors’ run-and-shoot attack is designed to get the ball in the hands of the receivers quickly — and, with four or five receivers running routes most of the time, the defense is spread thin. That makes open-field tackling critical on defense.
That was a significant problem for the Broncos in the first half of the Florida State game, when they allowed 31 points.
“We always hear guys say, ‘You touch the ball, you catch it,’ well we think if you get your hands on a guy, you better get him down,” Boise State defensive coordinator Jeff Schmedding said. “And we’re emphasizing that as much as we possibly can.”
3. Turnovers and red zone: The run-and-shoot usually is going to produce yards. The key to beating a team that plays that way is to force turnovers and get stops in the red zone.
As good as the Broncos have been at preventing points this season, they have been bad in the turnover column. They are tied for 89th nationally with six takeaways. Considering the goal is three per game, they’re already nine behind schedule. Hawaii has lost 15, the third-most in the nation — so opportunities will be there.
Conversely, the Broncos have been among the nation’s best at keeping opponents out of the end zone. They are tied for 20th in red-zone defense, allowing touchdowns on just 5-of-11 drives (45.5 percent). Hawaii’s offense excels here, scoring touchdowns on 15-of-20 drives.
Three Predictions
Boise State is a 13-point favorite in Las Vegas with an over/under of 60 1/2 total points. The Broncos are 19-9 against the spread in their past 28 games, including three straight covers.
Hawaii is 7-21-2 ATS in its past 30 games but 4-3 in its past seven.
My pick (4-1 straight up, 3-2 ATS): Hawaii will test Boise State’s secondary in a way it hasn’t been so far this season. That group was a bit of a question mark coming into the season but has performed well since that ugly first half in Tallahassee. On the other side, the Warriors have the best pass defense true freshman quarterback Hank Bachmeier has seen and the Broncos are going to need to find a spark in the run game to offset that. Boise State will win — but this will be an edgier contest than some expect. Boise State 31, Hawaii 24
Hawaii perspective, from Ferd Lewis of the Honolulu Star-Advertiser (opponent view is 2-2, 2-2): “The Rainbow Warriors are coming off their most complete, all-around (offense, defense, special teams) victory in at least five years and with the benefit of an open week. So, if there is ever going to be a breakthrough win in Boise, where they are 0-6, this sets up as their best shot since 2006. Hawaii 31, Boise State 28
Betting expert Lee Sterling of Paramount Sports, who appears weekly on KTIK (3-1, 2-2): “Even though (quarterback Cole) McDonald has some moments, it’s tough to trust the Hawaii quarterback here against top competition. ... Boise has some guys who can put pressure on the quarterback.” Boise State 37, Hawaii 20
Chadd Cripe is the Idaho Statesman’s assistant editor and sports columnist. Contact him at ccripe@idahostatesman.com and follow @chaddcripe on Twitter.
This story was originally published October 10, 2019 at 11:04 PM.
