Prediction: The Idaho state football playoffs are here. Here’s who’s moving on, going home
The road to an Idaho state football championship enters its second phase this week.
Gone are all the jockeying for position and the myriad regular-season tiebreakers. Idaho has set the playoff brackets from 5A to 1A Division II. All that’s left is to play it out on the field.
After going 157-18 (.897) during the regular season, I broke down all the first-round matchups for 5A and 4A SIC teams below, handicapping each game and predicting a winner.
BORAH AT EAGLE
Kickoff: 7 p.m. Friday
Broadcast: NFHS Network, IdahoSports.com (audio only)
As longtime members of the 5A SIC, Borah (5-4) and Eagle (7-2) have plenty of history. But the two haven’t faced each other since 2019 thanks to the SIC’s split-division format.
Borah has gone through wild swings all season. The Lions started 0-3, then won five straight, only to lose their 5A SIC cross-division game last week to Skyview. That forced the Lions to back into the playoffs as the single at-large team, a bid they clinched only Monday after North Idaho’s Inland Empire League broke a three-way tie.
Borah junior running back Parker Rushton carries the load offensively, ranking second in 5A with 1,165 rushing yards and 15 TDs. And Bradly Toth provides an explosive option on the edge as 5A’s leading receiver (55 catches, 794 yards, eight TDs).
Meanwhile, Eagle enters its 14th straight playoff appearance as the winner of five in a row, including the last four by an average of 39.7 points. It quietly climbed to No. 5 in the final state media poll.
The Mustangs have offensive weapons all over the field, including running back Deeghan Martinho, wide receiver Ian Duarte and tight end Donovan Jones. That forces defenses to pick their poison, a choice few have made correctly — Eagle fields the state’s second-highest scoring offense (38.6 ppg).
Prediction: Eagle 35, Borah 20
MADISON AT MERIDIAN
Kickoff: 7 p.m. Friday
Broadcast: NFHS Network, IdahoSports.com (audio only)
The year 2007 continues to loom over Meridian (6-3). It was the last time the Warriors did a host of things, as they went undefeated en route to the 5A state title.
Meridian has crossed several milestones off its list. But the largest one still remains: the Warriors’ first playoff victory since that 2007 season.
Meridian is 0-7 in the playoffs since winning it all, including losses to Madison in 2016, ‘17 and ‘18. But the Warriors host the Bobcats (6-3) this time. Senior quarterback Malakai Martinez appears to have returned to full health. And Meridian sports the state’s top defense in points allowed (9.2 per game) and turnovers forced (20).
Madison remains dangerous, though. Just ask No. 2-ranked Rigby, which saw its undefeated season go up in smoke after the Bobcats rallied from a 21-point first-half deficit last week in a rivalry matchup.
Prediction: Meridian 26, Madison 21
CAPITAL AT LEWISTON
Kickoff: 8 p.m. Mountain Time Friday
Broadcast: IdahoSports.com
After announcing he would resign at the end of the season, Capital coach Todd Simis’ farewell tour continues with a trip to Lewiston (7-2), a place the Eagles (6-3) haven’t played since 2008.
Strap in for an offensive shootout. Lewiston tops the 5A ranks with 41 points per game. Running back Cruz Hepburn leads the state in rushing yards. And quarterback Jace McKarcher isn’t far behind as a two-way threat.
But Capital can rack up points with the best of them (32.7 ppg) on the arm of senior quarterback Max Clark, the state’s leading passer. So expect a contrast of style and plenty of fireworks.
Prediction: Lewiston 42, Capital 38
SKYVIEW AT HIGHLAND
Kickoff: 5:30 p.m. Friday
Broadcast: NFHS Network, IdahoSports.com (audio only)
In its final season in Idaho’s largest classification, Skyview (5-4) is still searching for its first 5A playoff win. It heads into one of the state’s largest home-field advantages looking for that historic victory.
Highland (7-2) may have gone three straight seasons without a league title, but the Rams are in the playoffs for an unheard of 32 consecutive years. And they get to host inside Idaho State’s Holt Arena, where they are 52-7 since 2013, including 9-1 in the playoffs.
Skyview started the season 4-0, only to lose its next four games. But the Hawks responded with a 41-14 upset of Borah last week in a win-or-go-home game for a surprise playoff berth.
Skyview forced six turnovers and quarterback Max Cutforth threw for 269 yards and five TDs, performances they will need to get close to for another upset.
Prediction: Highland 35, Skyview 21
NAMPA AT EMMETT
Kickoff: 7 p.m. Friday
Broadcast: None
Nampa (5-4) fell 40-30 to the Huskies (7-2) five weeks ago. Since then, it has won four in a row to storm back into the playoffs and earn a rematch with the 4A SIC champ.
The Bulldogs’ turnaround has come with plenty of dramatics. They beat Vallivue by one point on a two-point conversion with 23 seconds left. Then Lance Hanna booted a 49-yard field goal as time expired for a two-point win over Middleton.
But those last-second wins obscure an offense that has caught fire in the past month, averaging 53.8 points behind Trais Higgins (4A’s leading receiver) and a resurgent run game led by Daniel Carrillo.
Emmett comes off a surprising 8-7 home loss to Vallivue. The Huskies had already clinched the 4A SIC title and had little to play for but seeding. But any time an offense led by reigning 4A All-Idaho Player of the Year Caden Young gets only a single touchdown, questions linger.
Young (2,478 total yards, 32 TDs) has carried the Huskies all year alongside running back Jeff Lockett (687 yards, four TDs). But if the Huskies want to make another deep postseason run, Young will need more help.
Prediction: Emmett 35, Nampa 31
TWIN FALLS AT BISHOP KELLY
Kickoff: 7 p.m. Friday
Broadcast: NFHS Network
Bishop Kelly (7-2) and Twin Falls (7-2) enter with identical records. But their pedigrees are anything but identical.
Bishop Kelly has won seven state titles and reached the quarterfinals every year since 2012. Twin Falls won a single state title in 2004 and hasn’t won a playoff game since 2009.
Running back Seth Knothe continues to carry BK, leading the state with 1,612 rushing yards and 28 TDs. His explosive runs are the chief reason the Knights have won six in a row to climb to No. 2 in the final state media poll.
Twin Falls’ only losses this season came to Minico (9-0) and Pocatello (7-2). But other than Minico, teams from District Four are 2-20 in the playoffs since 2010.
Prediction: Bishop Kelly 36, Twin Falls 20
MIDDLETON AT BLACKFOOT
Kickoff: 7 p.m. Friday
Broadcast: NFHS Network
Even with a losing record, Blackfoot (4-5) hosts the first-round matchup after winning the High Country Conference.
That leaves Middleton (5-4) to take its high-flying offense on the road. The Vikings top the 4A classification with 42.6 points per game. Most of those came via the arm of senior quarterback Ky McClure, who stands as 4A’s leading passer for the second year in a row, with 2,715 yards and 25 TDs with seven interceptions.
The Vikings have lost four games, but none by double digits, and they had a one-point loss to Emmett and a two-point loss to Nampa.
Prediction: Middleton 34, Blackfoot 28
VALLIVUE AT MINICO
Kickoff: 7 p.m. Friday
Broadcast: IdahoSports.com
Vallivue (5-4) upset then second-ranked Emmett 8-7 on the road last week to clinch a playoff spot. Now the Falcons get a shot at Minico (9-0), the No. 1-ranked team in the state media poll the past six weeks.
Vallivue thrives on turnovers, leading the 4A ranks with 24 of them forced and a +12 margin. But so does Minico, which ranks just behind the Falcons with 21 turnovers forced and a +11 margin.
Prediction: Minico 27, Vallivue 13
This story was originally published October 27, 2021 at 7:37 PM.
