Title predictions: The favorites at every Idaho boys basketball state tournament
Forty-eight high school boys basketball teams head to the Treasure Valley this weekend, but only six will leave with an Idaho state championship trophy.
We broke down the upcoming 6A to 1A tournaments, naming the favorite, contender and dark horse in each classification below.
[Related: Scouting reports for every team | State tournament brackets, matchups]
IDAHO 6A BOYS BASKETBALL STATE TOURNAMENT
THE FAVORITE: Owyhee (18-6) may not sport a sparkling record. But the two-time defending state champs hardened themselves with a loaded out-of-state schedule. Utah Valley-bound point guard Logan Haustveit (17.0 ppg, 3.5 assists) leads another deep squad that has dominated Idaho since the school opened five years ago, capturing three titles in four tries and posting a 92-5 record vs. Gem State opponents. The Storm have yet to slow down this year, going 5-0 vs. 6A state qualifiers while winning those contests by 22.6 points per game.
THE CHALLENGER: Centennial (20-3) fields one of the few lineups with enough firepower to contend with Owyhee. Two-time state scoring leader Gabe Eddins (20.7 ppg) and Tobin Knudson (19.0 ppg) headline 6A’s top offense (66.2 ppg), and Henry Johnson provides a versatile slash player that keeps the Patriots connected. He missed the district championship game, resulting in a 23-point loss to Owyhee. But Centennial expects him to return for state.
THE DARK HORSE: North Idaho received only one state tournament berth this year, and Lake City (16-8) navigated that gauntlet to return for a seventh straight season. The defending runner-up also tested itself by going 7-5 against out-of-state opponents behind junior forward Jordan Carlson (17.6 ppg, 6.9 rebounds), a reigning second-team All-Idaho pick.
IDAHO 5A BOYS BASKETBALL STATE TOURNAMENT
THE FAVORITE: Defending champ Preston (20-3) lost three all-state players to graduation, but the perennial power only reloads. Preston drew the No. 2 seed despite receiving 11-of-12 first-place votes in the final state coaches’ poll. The Indians may not dominate like they did a year ago, but they still own 5A’s best defense (44.7 ppg).
THE CHALLENGER: Lewiston (20-3) flamed out as the No. 2 seed last year, going two-and-out. Their reward? The No. 1 seed this week and the easiest path, on paper, to the finals. Senior guard Royce Fisher, a Lewis-Clark State College commit, leads a squad that has won 17 of its past 18 games and looks to make up for last year’s disappointment.
THE DARK HORSE: Bishop Kelly (18-6) and Twin Falls (17-7) stand as two of the state’s hottest teams. BK has won eight in a row, and Twin Falls has won 12 in a row behind reigning first-team all-state forward Trey Billings. Unfortunately, they face each other in the first round, and the winner must beat tournament favorite Preston in the semifinals to make it to the championship.
IDAHO 4A BOYS BASKETBALL STATE TOURNAMENT
THE FAVORITE: Teton (20-5) navigated the toughest road to state across all classifications, beating No. 1-ranked Sugar-Salem twice for its league’s only berth. That earned the Timberwolves the top seed at state, where the path to another tournament title might be easier than its own district tournament. Luke Nelson (16.4 ppg), Cannon Kunz (14.5 ppg) and Bradley Brown (10.6 ppg) form a potent trio as Teton contends for its first championship since 1997.
THE CHALLENGER: Cole Valley Christian (19-4) looms on the opposite of the bracket as a worthy No. 2 seed. The Chargers have won 15 straight behind the classification’s top offense (67.4 ppg), and their only losses came to Capital (6A), Bishop Kelly (5A) and two Alaska teams. Cole Valley also fields a bona fide college prospect in high-flying 6-foot-7 sophomore Soren Fraas (15.5 ppg).
THE DARK HORSE: Bonners Ferry (13-8) may have a new coach, and three of its stars from the past may play in college now. But the Badgers remain the two-time defending champs and sit atop the hill until someone knocks them off. Sulay Abubakari and Peyton Hinthorn played key roles on those title teams, and they’ll look to lead the next generation to Bonners Ferry’s fourth straight championship game.
IDAHO 3A BOYS BASKETBALL STATE TOURNAMENT
THE FAVORITE: The Swainston twins carried Wendell (22-2) to a state title last year, and they return looking for another banner with the state’s top offense (63.7 ppg) and second-best defense (44.1 ppg). Jonathan Swainston (20.3 ppg) stands as the reigning 3A All-Idaho Player of the Year, and Jordon Swainston made the all-state first team a year ago. Both have scored more than 1,000 career points.
THE CHALLENGER: St. Maries (18-3) features a Hollywood-worthy story of its own as veteran coach Bryan Chase battles pancreatic and liver cancer. Despite the emotional obstacle, the Lumberjacks still earned a district title and the tournament’s No. 1 seed. Senior guard JJ Yearout (20.0 ppg, 8.1 rebounds) can change the game by himself, and St. Maries provides him plenty of help with three more players averaging eight or more points.
THE DARK HORSE: Defense wins championships, and Ririe (15-9) brings the best unit in the state to Meridian High. The Bulldogs are holding opponents to just 40.9 points per game a night, nearly three fewer than anyone else in the 3A classification.
IDAHO 2A BOYS BASKETBALL STATE TOURNAMENT
THE FAVORITE: Lakeside (19-2) can light up the gym with anyone at 76 points per game, the most in Idaho across all classifications. Only one team comes within six points of the Knights. All-state guards Tyson Charley (20.1 ppg, 4.2 assists) and Hallah Peone (17.0 ppg, 3.8 assists) fuel that breakneck pace. But Lakeside is efficient, too, shooting 53% from the floor as a team.
THE CHALLENGER: All Kendrick (20-3) does is win state championships, capturing titles in football (twice), boys basketball and baseball in the past 16 months. The Tigers field 2A’s best defense (39.6 ppg) and second-best offense (67.2 ppg), and they bring two returning all-state basketball selections of their own in senior Ralli Roetciscoender and sophomore Hudson Kirkland.
THE DARK HORSE: Prairie (18-6) needed to win a play-in game just to make it to state, but the Pirates feature rare size for 2A. The starting frontcourt of Patrick Schlader, Riley Shears and Nate Forsmann all stand 6-foot-5, giving Prairie an edge every night. The Pirates are also battle tested, with their only losses coming to Lakeside, Kendrick and Orofino, the No. 3 seed in 2A.
IDAHO 1A BOYS BASKETBALL STATE TOURNAMENT
THE FAVORITE: Rockland (22-2) brings the state’s best defense across all classifications (35.4 ppg) to the Treasure Valley for the third year in a row. That suffocating unit made the top-seeded Bulldogs 17-0 vs. 1A competition this year, including a pair of double-digit wins over the No. 2 seed, Watersprings.
THE CHALLENGER: Watersprings (22-3) captured its first trophy in program history last year with the consolation title. Now the Warriors return looking for a banner. Korban Nelson (22.6 ppg, 5.2 assists) and Ryan Demkowicz (16.7 ppg, 9.7 rebounds) lead a dynamic squad that will need to solve the Rockland puzzle in a third meeting.
THE DARK HORSE: The only losses for Garden Valley (20-2) came against Rockland (21 points) and Watersprings (six points). The Wolverines look to avenge those blemishes behind 1A’s top offense (70.6 ppg) and one of its most dynamic players in Madix Miller (15.1 ppg, 7.7 rebounds. 7.4 assists).
This story was originally published March 4, 2026 at 2:07 PM.
