Prediction: These three Treasure Valley teams will win basketball state titles this week
The winter sports season comes to an end with a bang this weekend as the boys basketball state tournaments tip off around the Treasure Valley.
The first rounds start Thursday with the championship games running all day Saturday at the Ford Idaho Center in Nampa.
I examined all 48 state qualifiers to handicap the race for state in all six classifications below.
CLASS 5A
THE FAVORITE: Rocky Mountain (23-1) brings one of the most impressive resumes in recent history to the state tournament. The Grizzlies have won 20 straight games, and their only loss came in double overtime to Utah’s Wasatch Academy, the No. 4-ranked team in the country in the MaxPreps Xcellent 25.
A stacked roster puts up 70.8 points per game, the most in 5A by a wide margin. And don’t think you can lock down one or two players. Rocky Mountain has so many offensive weapons that Briggs Ranstrom, the only Division I signee in the state thus far, is the Grizzlies’ fourth-leading scorer (10.6 ppg). He has signed with Idaho State.
Anything less than a state title would be a major upset.
THE CONTENDER: Of course, Rocky Mountain entered last year’s tournament as the state’s No. 1 team only to get upset by Post Falls (20-3) in the first round. The Trojans return four starters from that team and loom in a possible semifinal matchup.
Post Falls already owns road victories over Gonzaga Prep, a two-time defending Washington state champ, and Rigby (23-1), handing the Trojans their only loss. And four-year starting forward Colby Gennett (13.8 ppg, 6.8 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 2.0 steals) remains one of the state’s top players.
THE DARK HORSE: Rigby’s sparkling record and returning talent make it a threat. But the top contender from the bottom side of the bracket stands as Borah (19-5).
Boise State football signee Austin Bolt has willed the Lions to impressive heights, averaging a double-double (19.7 ppg, 12.7 rebounds) for the third straight season. Borah has enough talent around him to make a run and defend its state title.
CLASS 4A
THE FAVORITE: Middleton may come in as the state’s No. 2 team. But the Vikings (21-3) have posted a 6-1 record against this year’s state qualifiers. That includes a nine-point win at No. 1 Preston, the Indians’ only loss this year.
Between the 6-7 Tyler Robinett, a College of Idaho signee, and the 6-6 Tyler Medaris, Middleton has the size to dominate inside. And the athletic pair will rattle the rim at Borah High if given any space.
THE CONTENDER: Preston (23-1) looms in a potential semifinal matchup, itching to avenge its only loss and get back to the state finals for the fifth straight year.
The Indians have won 19 straight since that December loss to Middleton. They’ve looked unbeatable since then, winning 15 of those games by double digits behind 4A’s top offense (69.8 ppg). And returning All-Idaho center Ty Hyde gives Preston the size to battle Middleton inside.
THE DARK HORSE: The bottom half of the bracket is wide open with one surprise district champ (Blackfoot) and another district champ with just seven games against 4A competition (Moscow).
But watch for Minico to emerge. The Spartans (17-7) have three players scoring 10 or more points per game, including Kasen Carpenter, who has signed to play at the College of Southern Idaho, a national junior college power.
CLASS 3A
THE FAVORITE: Homedale upset Fruitland for the district title a week ago. But I’m willing to chalk that up as an off night for the Grizzlies (22-2), who have spent the entire season as 3A’s No. 1 team.
They’ve earned that respect, suffocating opponents to just 42.3 points per game, the lowest in their classification. That upset may be just what Fruitland needed, delivering a wakeup call right before the state tournament.
THE CONTENDER: Kimberly (21-1) has remained hot on Fruitland’s heels in the state rankings, spending the entire season at No. 2. They could finally settle the debate on who’s No. 1 in a state semifinal matchup.
Reigning 3A All-Idaho Player of the Year Dawson Cummins headlines the Bulldogs, whose only loss came to a 4A opponent, Canyon Ridge. No one can argue Kimberly has played a soft schedule. It is 8-0 vs. 3A state tournament qualifiers, including 2-0 vs. defending state champ Sugar-Salem.
THE DARK HORSE: Sugar-Salem (17-5) benefited from the luck of the draw with Idaho’s predrawn state brackets. After a first-round game against Kellogg (16-6), it would face a team at or below .500 in the semifinals.
The Diggers have plenty of returning experience from last year’s championship team, including three starters and first-team All-Idaho point guard Hadley Miller, to make another run.
CLASS 2A
THE FAVORITE: West Side (21-4) has the firepower needed to end its 40-year state championship drought, scoring a classification-high 59.0 points a night. And it tested itself in the preseason, going 2-1 at a Wyoming tournament against much larger schools.
A hiccup at district forced it to play an if-necessary game for the title. But it responded with a 16-point win the next night.
THE CONTENDER: The graduation of 2A All-Idaho Player of the Year Garrett Hawkes hasn’t slowed North Fremont (19-2) much. The Huskies return fresh off their first state title in program history hunting for another one.
A more balanced, and potentially dangerous, team leads the charge this time with three players averaging 10 or more points per game.
THE DARK HORSE: A rimmed-out layup at the end of regulation kept St. Maries (17-5) from a state title last year. The Lumberjacks return just one starter from that team, but they’ve won 10 of their last 11 games and are coming together at the right time.
CLASS 1A DIVISION I
THE FAVORITE: Potlatch (20-2) has finished second at state eight times, including last year, but it has never won a title. That ends now.
Ten seniors make up the entire Loggers roster, and they have a bounty of size for a 1A team with seven players standing 6-foot or taller. Potlatch has already proven itself against the top contenders, going 2-1 vs. Lapwai and scoring a 13-point win over Ambrose four weeks ago on a neutral floor.
THE CONTENDER: Perennial power Lapwai (20-3) looms on the opposite side of the bracket, setting up a potential district championship rematch in the state finals.
The run-and-gun Wildcats can shoot anyone out of the gym, racking up 68.6 points a night, the most in 1A Division I. And with sophomore Titus Yearout (29 ppg), they have someone who can take over the game when needed.
THE DARK HORSE: Ambrose (21-2) has run roughshod over its Treasure Valley opponents, posting the classification’s top defense at 36.5 points per game. The Archers will get a chance to show they can hang with the North Idaho powers and avenge their loss to Potlatch in a potential semifinal.
CLASS 1A DIVISION II
THE FAVORITE: Lakeside (21-0) stands as Idaho’s only undefeated team in any classification. And it has dominated everyone it has faced, posting the highest scoring average in all of Idaho (75.0 ppg) while allowing just 39.1 points a night.
The 6-foot-8 Day Day Higgins gives the Knights a true mismatch inside. But he’s just one of six players averaging eight or more points.
THE CONTENDER: Garden Valley (16-3) returns all five starters from last year’s state runner-up. That includes reigning 1A Division II All-Idaho Player of the Year Covy Kelly, who broke a host of current Dallas Cowboys linebacker Leighton Vander Esch’s records last year.
Unfortunately, the Wolverines drew Lakeside in the first round.
THE DARK HORSE: Cascade (18-4) sits on the opposite side of the bracket from Lakeside and Garden Valley. The trio of Blake Thurston (21.7 ppg), Michael Onaindia (15.4 ppg, 16.2 rebounds) and Cody Moosman (16.3 ppg) give the Ramblers all the firepower they need to make it to the Idaho Center.
This story was originally published March 4, 2020 at 2:48 PM.
