Picking the title favorites, top threats at Idaho girls basketball state tourney
Forecasting remains a fool’s errand.
Just ask your local meteorologists. No one remembers all the times they got it right. They only remember that one surprise rainstorm.
But consider us fools, because we are back trying to predict the winners of the Idaho high school girls basketball state tournaments this weekend in the Treasure Valley.
We broke down the favorite, the challenger and the dark horse in all six classifications.
[Related: Scouting reports on all 48 teams | State tournament brackets in every classification]
IDAHO 6A GIRLS BASKETBALL STATE TOURNAMENT
THE FAVORITE: Eagle (22-2) just completed an unheard-of run at its district tournament, winning first- and second-round games via the mercy rule and falling two points shy of triggering the running clock again in the championship. A bounty of shooters makes Eagle a threat to erupt at any moment. But junior guard Berkley Jones remains the true difference maker. The reigning first-team All-Idaho selection holds 13 Division I offers, averaged 33 points at district and enters state putting up 22.8 points while shooting a staggering 60% from the floor.
THE CHALLENGER: Undefeated teams don’t fly under the radar often. Yet Rigby (23-0) finds itself in that exact situation. East Idaho teams rarely get much respect because the region hasn’t won a state title in Idaho’s top classification since 1990. But the Trojans have dominated all season, winning games by 24.5 points per night behind second-team all-state guard Kinzley Larsen (15.7 ppg) and one of 6A’s top defenses (34.8 ppg).
THE DARK HORSE: Middleton (19-4) voluntarily chose to move up to 6A this season, and the Vikings have more than lived up to the challenge. Middleton went undefeated in the 6A SIC this season and sought out the state’s toughest schedule — if you believe MaxPreps rankings — with tournament trips to California and Las Vegas. The Vikings’ pressure defense and depth remain a nightmare for opposing guards to break.
IDAHO 5A GIRLS BASKETBALL STATE TOURNAMENT
THE FAVORITE: Lakeland (18-4) enters the tournament with just one senior. But the Hawks earned the top seed with a resume that includes impressive wins in Spokane and East Idaho. Freshman forward Jaeli Hoffman (16 ppg) headlines 5A’s most prolific offense (59.7 ppg), putting Lakeland in the driver’s seat for its first state title since 2002.
THE CHALLENGER: North Idaho rarely contends at this level, but Sandpoint (19-5) gives the Inland Empire League the top two seeds in the tournament. A young team went two-and-out in last year’s trip to the Treasure Valley. But juniors Brecken Mire, a second-team all-state pick, and Jordyn Tomco, an Alaska Anchorage commit, return looking to prove North Idaho belongs.
THE DARK HORSE: Pocatello (16-7) remains the reigning state champ until someone dethrones the Thunder. Gonzaga signee Abby Lusk is the only returning starter from last year’s title squad. But don’t expect the reigning 5A All-Idaho Player of the Year to go home early.
IDAHO 4A GIRLS BASKETBALL STATE TOURNAMENT
THE FAVORITE: Graduation left Sugar-Salem (23-0) with only three returning players from last year’s championship team. But the Diggers remained untouchable, winning games by an average of 23.3 points to enter the tournament on a 49-game winning streak. Sugar-Salem sought out 4A’s toughest schedule and still went 11-0 vs. 5A to 2A state qualifiers behind junior point guard Andee Petterson (17.1 ppg, 7.1 assists), a first-team All-Idaho pick last year.
THE CHALLENGER: Bear Lake (20-4) returns gunning for its third straight trip to the championship game. The Bears fell to Sugar-Salem last year, and they lost rematches by nine and 21 points to the Diggers this season. Junior post Halle Wells (16.3 ppg, 9.9 rebounds), a two-time all-state pick, and 4A’s top defense (32.8 ppg) give Bear Lake the best weapons to pull the upset.
THE DARK HORSE: Timberlake (14-6) returns to state for the 15th time in 18 years with a well-known reputation as a giant slayer. The Tigers proved it once already this season with a win over 5A’s top seed, Lakeland. A pair of explosive guards in Macy Murphey (19.8 ppg) and Malia Miller (18.6 ppg) give coach Matt Miller all the weapons needed for his fifth state championship.
IDAHO 3A GIRLS BASKETBALL STATE TOURNAMENT
THE FAVORITE: Malad (21-2) returns all but one player from last year’s state runner-up team, including a pair of first-team all-state selections in senior forward Brynnlee Jones and senior guard Izzy Haycock. All that talent built 3A’s top offense (57.8 ppg) and gives the Dragons a shot at their first state title since 1993.
THE CHALLENGER: Firth (21-5) stood as Malad’s top threat most of the season, finishing second in the final state coaches’ poll. Three players average 10 or more points per game, giving the Cougars plenty of scoring options. And a lucky draw puts conference rival Ririe on the opposite side of the bracket, making them Malad’s problem.
THE DARK HORSE: Grangeville (17-6) didn’t receive much respect in the computer rankings, drawing the No. 5 seed thanks to a weak league. But the Bulldogs tip off the tournament with a pair of college commits in senior guard Caryss Barger (Whitworth) and senior forward Addi Vanderwall (Providence). That is more than enough talent to make waves.
IDAHO 2A GIRLS BASKETBALL STATE TOURNAMENT
THE FAVORITE: Reigning state champ Oakley (19-2) brings back a veteran squad to chase another banner. All five starters are seniors, including second-team All-Idaho guard Taylin Beck. All that experience created the state’s top defense (29.1 ppg) across all classifications. The Hornets’ only losses this season came to undefeated Sugar-Salem and 3A state qualifier Ambrose.
THE CHALLENGER: Lapwai (21-1) went home without a trophy last year for just the second time in 19 years. Don’t expect that trend to continue with former Prairie coach Lori Mader building the state’s top offense across all classifications (64.9 ppg). The trio of Madden Bisbee (18.1 ppg), Skylin Picard (15.9 ppg) and Lois Oatman (12.6 ppg) give Lapwai enough weapons to survive an off night from any one of them.
THE DARK HORSE: Butte County (17-5) actually owns the top seed thanks to the classification’s toughest schedule by a wide margin. The Pirates found their stride late in the season behind Brynn Anderson (13.3 ppg) and Cambree Lyon (11.7 ppg), a pair of second-team all-state picks last year, to bring a seven-game winning streak to Boise.
IDAHO 1A GIRLS BASKETBALL STATE TOURNAMENT
THE FAVORITE: Salmon River (23-0) has yet to find its match, winning 15 of its 22 contested games by 20 or more points. (One win came via a forfeit.) It even traveled out of state looking for competition, and the closest anyone came was a five-point game against La Grande, an Oregon school with enough students to play in Idaho’s 4A classification. Two-time all-state selection Rylee Walters (21.3 ppg) headlines a potent offense (60.2 ppg) with enough weapons to bring home the program’s first state title since 1977.
THE CHALLENGER: Mackay (19-2) stands as one of the few teams that can score with Salmon River, putting up 57.3 points a game. The Miners don’t feature quite the same star power, instead relying on three players averaging double figures. But after two-and-out trips to state the past two years, Mackay has the experience needed to make a run.
THE DARK HORSE: Carey (17-3) stands as one of the few teams to hang with Salmon River, suffering a 12-point loss at an Oregon holiday tournament. The Panthers enter state on a 12-game winning streak, and no one will remember that December performance if first-team all-state point guard Andie Simpson can lead the Panthers to an upset.
This story was originally published February 18, 2026 at 11:39 AM.
