Analysis: Boise State will play for a Mountain West championship this year. Here’s why
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Your 2022 Boise State football guide
The Broncos open the 2022 football season at Oregon State on Sept. 3, and we’ve got all the info you need to get up to speed before kickoff — from potential storylines to bold predictions.
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Analysis: Boise State will play for a Mountain West championship this year. Here’s why
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Motivation comes in many forms.
For Boise State tight end Kurt Rafdal, it’s finally playing in a bowl game in the sixth and final year of his college career. He never made the postseason in four seasons at Nebraska and has yet to experience a bowl as a Bronco.
Edge rusher Demitri Washington and cornerback Markel Reed have a chance to prove they’re still the athletes they were before injuries complicated their careers.
Running back George Holani, who has NFL dreams, wants to show he can stay healthy for a full season.
Of course, there’s also Boise State’s company line, which players have toed with expert precision so far in 2022: They want to win a Mountain West championship, which the Broncos haven’t done since 2019.
If there’s one thing that motivates every player and coach wearing the Broncos’ blue and orange this year, it’s ending the season on a high note, after the last two ended in disappointing fashion.
Boise State’s players voted not to play in a bowl game in 2020 after navigating COVID-19 protocols during a shortened season and losing to San Jose State in the Mountain West title game. That snapped the Broncos’ streak of 18 straight bowl appearances.
After missing out on the conference title game last year and going 7-5, the Broncos accepted an invitation to the Arizona Bowl, only to be forced to pull out of the game because of a surge of COVID-19 cases.
“The last couple years have left a really sour taste in our mouths, and we’re going to do everything we can to change that,” said left tackle John Ojukwu, who is entering his fifth season as a starter on the Broncos’ offensive line and third at left tackle. “We know the standard. Now we just have to protect it.”
Boise State lost three straight games at Albertons Stadium in 2021 — the first time that had happened since 1996 — and finished with its most losses since 2013. Another season like that isn’t going to cut it for a fan base that was regularly treated to seasons with 10 or more wins and conference championships under former head coaches Chris Petersen and Bryan Harsin.
Coach Andy Avalos said he isn’t feeling any added pressure to deliver in his second season since taking over at his alma mater, but that doesn’t mean the pressure isn’t there.
Boise State needs to deliver a lot of wins and even a league championship to its fans this year, and I think the Broncos have the pieces to do it.
Here are my bold predictions for the 2022 season.
Holani ends the season as the Mountain West’s rushing leader
Holani has missed time with injuries the past two seasons, but he’s healthy this year, and he seems primed for a monster season. He cleaned up his diet in the spring and, judging by his chiseled physique, spent the bulk of the summer in the weight room.
He won’t have to shoulder the load alone this season after freshman Ashton Jeanty and former Utah State running Elelyon Noa joined the program. Jeanty looks as physically impressive as Holani, and Noa is an experienced third-down back who catches the ball well out of the backfield.
A healthy, rested Holani is dangerous in his own right. But he’s going to be even more motivated to put some impressive highlights on tape because it’s probably the last season of his college career. Running backs don’t generally have a long shelf life, and Holani already has dealt with multiple injuries.
Holani wants to prove that he can be in the NFL. Buckle up, Boise State fans. It should be a fun ride.
The defense rivals the best in program history
If you ask former players and coaches about the best defense in Boise State history, most will point to the 2010 team. The unit allowed just 12.7 points a game, and it was led by future NFL players Jeron Johnson, George Iloka, Tyrone Crawford, Shea McClellin and Jamar Taylor.
Boise State’s defense was solid last year, allowing just 19 points a game and forcing the most turnovers since 2018. This year’s unit has the talent, experience and depth to be even better.
The secondary is one of the best in the Mountain West. Safety JL Skinner is a future draft pick, and Tyreque Jones is going to have a huge impact at nickel, where he’ll play closer to the line of scrimmage. Reed and Caleb Biggers are both long, athletic cornerbacks who already caught the eye of Senior Bowl scouts.
The depth at linebacker and on the defensive line is much improved, and Weber State transfer George Tarlas has a chance to make an immediate impact as a pass rusher.
Riley Smith throws a TD pass to Scott Matlock
I know it sounds crazy. Why would a tight end throw a touchdown pass to a defensive tackle, and why those two in particular?
The answer is simple. This is Boise State — a program built on the Hook-and-Ladder and Statue of Liberty plays of the past. Not to mention, both players have done it before.
Smith came to Boise State as a quarterback. He moved to tight end in 2019, but even former quarterbacks dream of throwing a touchdown pass in college. Matlock, who joins the offense as an extra tight end in goal line situations, caught the first touchdown pass of his career just last year.
Part of Boise State’s mystique has always been the unpredictable nature of its play callers, and the Broncos might need to reach into their bag of tricks to pull out a win or two this year.
Boise State makes it back to the Mountain West title game
This season is shaping up to be a big one for the Broncos. They have experience and potential NFL Draft picks on both sides of the ball, and there aren’t many teams in the country that have a four-year starter at quarterback and a five-year starter on the offensive line.
The Broncos aren’t exactly facing a murderer’s row in their nonconference schedule, which includes Oregon State (Sept. 3), Tennessee-Martin (Sept. 17), UTEP (Sept. 23) and BYU (Nov. 5). Boise State also gets to face its toughest Mountain West opponents at home, which could be a blessing when San Diego State (Sept. 30) and Fresno State (Oct. 8) come to town in back-to-back weeks.
My prediction: Boise State goes 9-3 and plays Fresno State in the Mountain West championship game.
This story was originally published August 27, 2022 at 4:00 AM.
