How can Boise State make it back to Mountain West championship? Win out, win tiebreakers
The Boise State football team has a long road ahead of it if it’s going to play in the Mountain West championship game for the fifth year in a row, but the Broncos aren’t out of the race.
What do they have to do to make it to the title game on Dec. 4? That begins with beating Wyoming on Friday (7 p.m., FS1) and winning their final two regular-season games, at home against New Mexico (Saturday, Nov. 20) and on the road against San Diego State (Friday, Nov. 26.)
Boise State (5-4, 3-2) also needs some help to win the Mountain Division. Utah State (7-2, 4-1) leads the division and Air Force (6-3, 3-2) is in second place. The Broncos need them both to lose at least one of their final three games to avoid a tiebreaker scenario that involves more than head-to-head play.
Utah State has the clearest path to the title game: win out. The Aggies next play at defending champion San Jose State (5-5, 3-3), which is coming off a 27-24 loss to Nevada. Utah State then hosts Wyoming (5-4, 1-4) on Nov. 20 and ends the season at New Mexico (3-6, 1-4).
Air Force has back-to-back road games against Colorado State (3-6, 2-3) and Nevada (7-2, 4-1) the next two weeks. The Falcons end the regular season at home against UNLV (1-8, 1-4), which just recorded its first win of the season against New Mexico on Saturday.
If there’s a tie between two teams at the end of the regular season, the tiebreaker procedure is easy: The team that won the head-to-head meeting is the champion. Boise State wins the division if it is tied with Utah State, because of its 27-3 win over the Aggies on Sept. 25. Boise State would lose the tiebreaker if it finished in a two-way tie with Air Force, because of the Falcons’ 24-17 win in Boise.
If Boise State, Utah State and Air Force end up in a three-way tie, deciding a division champion will get complicated. That’s because Utah State defeated Air Force 49-45 in September, so the three teams are all 1-1 in their head-to-head matchups.
In a three-way tie, the league tiebreakers then go to winning percentage in games played against opponents in the division; winning percentage against the next-highest-ranked team in the division, proceeding through the division; and winning percentage against common conference opponents. If there is still a tie, the team with the highest College Football Playoff ranking following the final week of the regular season wins.
If no team is ranked in the CFP standings — and that likely is to be the case, because none of the three is ranked now — then a composite of selected computer rankings is used.
Throughout the three-way tiebreaker process, if a single team is eliminated and it becomes a two-way tie, then it reverts to whoever won head-to-head.
With each team still having three games to play, the myriad scenarios are nearly impossible to decipher. But Boise State coach Andy Avalos know what his team’s focus has to be.
“I apologize that I’m not going to feed in to next week, the week after, three months from now or whatever it is,” he said. “I’m focusing on today, but I know our guys are excited to grow off of what we’ve done in the past three weeks.”
Boise State has to defeat Wyoming on Friday to keep its title shot alive, and a third straight victory also would check off an item that’s near the top of the Broncos’ to-do list every season: qualifying for a bowl game. It would be the 24th straight season that the Broncos have qualified for a bowl — something they did last year before the players voted not to play after a shortened season full of COVID-19 restrictions.
“Being able to go to a bowl game is always a big deal,” Avalos said. “Being able to be our best every single week is the focus of what we’re talking about right now.”
Players of week set to meet
Two of the Mountain West’s players of the week will be on opposing sidelines when Wyoming takes the field at Albertsons Stadium on Friday.
Boise State kicker Jonah Dalmas was named the conference’s Special Teams Player of the Week on Monday after going 4-for-4 on field goals at Fresno State on Saturday, including a season-long 47-yard kick. It was the third time that he went 4-for-4 in a game this season after also achieving the feat in the Broncos’ home opener against UTEP and a win at then-No. 10 BYU.
Dalmas was also named a Lou Groza Award “Star of the Week” for the second time this season after his performance on Saturday. The committee that chooses the Lou Groza Award winner at the end of the season — an honor Dalmas is a semifinalist for — recognizes the top three FBS kickers each week.
Dalmas, a former standout at Rocky Mountain High in Meridian, is 19-of-21 on field goals this season, which ties him for No. 2 in the Mountain West for kicks made with Nevada’s Brandon Talton, who is 19-of-26. Colorado State’s Cayden Camper leads the conference with 23 made field goals in 29 attempts.
Wyoming linebacker Chad Muma was named the Mountain West Defensive Player of the Week. The senior led the Cowboys with 11 tackles and an interception in a win over Colorado State in their annual rivalry game, known as the Border War, on Saturday.
Muma leads Wyoming with 89 tackles, seven tackles for loss and three interceptions this season.
WYOMING AT BOISE STATE
When: 7 p.m. Friday
Where: Albertsons Stadium
TV: FS1 (Dan Hellie, Petros Papadakis). That’s channel 146 on Sparklight, 219 on DirecTV and 150 on Dish Network.
Radio: KBOI 670 AM/KTIK 93.1 FM (Bob Behler, Pete Cavender)
Records: Boise State 5-4, 3-2 MW; Wyoming 5-4, 1-4 MW
Series: Boise State is 14-1 against Wyoming. The Broncos’ only loss in the series, dating back to 2002, was a 30-28 setback in Laramie in 2016. Boise State has won four straight in the series, including a 17-9 victory in the 2020 regular-season finale.
Vegas line: Boise State by 14
Weather: High of 57 degrees, 18% chance of rain, 6 mph winds
This story was originally published November 8, 2021 at 5:18 PM.
