Keys to victory, betting line and prediction for Boise State’s home opener against UTEP
Boise State offensive coordinator Tim Plough said it was hard not to get emotional during the national anthem on Thursday at the Bounce House in Orlando, Florida.
The Broncos’ season opener at UCF was the first game he coached in almost two years because COVID-19 forced the postponement of the 2020 season at the FCS level. It was also the debut of the Broncos’ new coaching staff, under the direction of former Boise State player Andy Avalos.
A 36-31 loss probably wasn’t the debut most of them envisioned, but it was educational. Plough said it showed just how important the running game and winning on first down are to his offense.
“Anytime you want to win football games as a team, you need to run the football and stop the run,” Plough said. “Knowing our style of offense, we have to do a better job on first down, whether it’s run or pass, so we can get into our tempo and wear teams out.”
Plough said the season opener was also a reminder that, while coaches have to be flexible and adjust to what their opponent does during a game, there’s nothing wrong with sticking with what works, either.
Boise State had some success early against UCF by playing fast and spreading the ball out to multiple receivers. That went away in the third quarter as what Plough said were many of the same run-pass-option (RPO) calls that worked in the first half turned into run after run that went nowhere. The Broncos finished with 20 rushing yards.
“I’m definitely not a conservative guy,” Plough said. “Trust me, if I walk down the street right now, that’s what people are going to yell at me. But that’s definitely not who I am. I’m an aggressive play caller. We’re going to take plenty of shots down the field. But every game is going to be unique, and we have to do what we need to do to win that game.”
For co-defensive coordinator Spencer Danielson, watching his defense give up 255 rushing yards against UCF was a reminder that it’s never too late to get back to basics.
“We break tackling down into three phases: tracking, punch and finish,” Danielson said. “We’re going to get it fixed, and a lot of it starts with fundamentals and techniques and playing those better and not guessing.”
Boise State is going to have to be prepared to defend the run again on Friday (7:30 p.m., FS1) in its home opener against UTEP. The Miners (2-0) come to town averaging more than 250 rushing yards a game.
More importantly, Boise State needs to work the kinks out of its new offense before Oklahoma State comes to town next weekend.
Note: Boise State defensive line coach Frank Maile said Tuesday that redshirt junior Jackson Cravens is the starter at nose tackle, instead of senior Scale Igiehon.
Cravens — who joined the program in 2019 after transferring from Utah — started at UCF and finished the game with one tackle. Igiehon didn’t play until the second half, and he also finished with one tackle.
Keys to victory
Tackle better: If there’s one thing UTEP has made perfectly clear this fall, it’s that the Miners are going to run the ball. They’ve done so a combined 93 times in their first two games. That means priority No. 1 for Boise State this week has to be tackling better than it did in the season opener at UCF.
Danielson said his guys made the correct reads and hit the right gap most of the time against UCF. Their struggles against the run came down to the simple fundamentals of tackling, he said.
“If our eyes aren’t right and our angles aren’t right, we’re going to miss,” Danielson said. “That showed up a lot (against UCF), and we’re going to get it fixed.”
UTEP has three running backs who average more than 6 yards a carry, and former wide receiver Ray Flores has moved to tailback. If the Broncos don’t tackle better on Friday, the Miners are going to spoil their home opener.
Keep spreading the ball around: It’s easy to look at the impact wide receiver Khalil Shakir made on the season opener, despite a limited number of touches, and want the Broncos to get him the ball on every play. While he may be dynamic enough to make most of those plays, that’s not what’s going to help the team achieve Plough’s goal of “half-a-hundred” points in every game.
The Broncos need to look at what was working in the first half last week at UCF and keep getting as many players involved in the passing game as possible. Quarterback Hank Bachmeier completed passes to eight different receivers in the first quarter alone, and 10 Boise State players finished the game with at least one catch.
“If you watch that first half and see us get into our rhythm and get into our tempo and distribute the ball to a lot of people, that’s really what we want to do,” Plough said. “That’s what we want our identity to be, and there were some times where we were doing it at a pretty high level.”
Make a play on special teams: Part of Boise State’s reputation has been built over the years on big plays on special teams. To be fair, that had a lot to do with two-time Mountain West Special Teams Player of the Year Avery Williams in recent years, but the Broncos are no strangers to the momentum swings that follow a big return or blocked kick. This feels like the game that Boise Sate breaks through with another monumental play on special teams.
The Broncos are in search of Williams’ replacement in the return game, and they have a couple of playmakers leading the way. Shakir and fellow wide receiver Stefan Cobbs are the top options at punt and kick returner. Shakir has shown time and time again what he can do with the ball in his hands. Cobbs is the player everyone around the program expects to have a breakout season, and he was close to breaking a long kick return last week at UCF, but it was negated by a penalty.
Key matchups
UTEP’s Praise Amaewhule vs. Boise State’s offensive tackles: Amaewhule is a two-time All-Conference USA selection, and he led the Miners last season in tackles for loss (8), sacks (7) and pass breakups (9). He’ll be matched up against either right tackle Ben Dooley, who made his first career start at UCF, or left tackle John Ojukwu, who is a four-year starter. Either way, Boise State needs a performance similar to last week from the offensive line, which didn’t give up a sack against UCF.
“The quarterback got hit a little too much, but our big emphasis was trying to neutralize the edge pressure at UCF, and I felt like we accomplished that,” Boise State offensive line coach Tim Keane said, adding that the Broncos will face a defensive line similar to UCF’s on Friday. “They’re big and get off the ball extremely well. They’re going to do a good job of getting on the edge or penetrating in a gap, so we’re going to have to neutralize that.”
Boise State WR Khalil Shakir vs. UTEP’s secondary: Shakir was on a snap count last week because of a nagging leg injury, and he still managed to lead the team in receptions (5), receiving yards (91) and receiving touchdowns (2). He wasn’t on the field for the Broncos’ first possession, but he made an impact as soon as he went into the game. He caught an 18-yard pass on his first series, converted a third down with a jet sweep on his second and finished that drive with back-to-back catches — the second of which went for a 19-yard touchdown.
On Tuesday, Shakir said he was dealing with a leg injury that he suffered about two weeks ago, but he felt like he could have played a larger role in the game. Avalos said on Sunday that Shakir is expected to be at full-go this week, and UTEP is going to have to know where he is on every snap.
Predictions
Boise State is 5-0 all-time against UTEP, but the programs haven’t played since 2004, when they were rivals in the Western Athletic Conference. The Broncos scored an average of 47.2 points in those games, and Boise State is 9-2 all-time against teams from the Miners’ current conference — Conference USA.
Boise State is a 26-point favorite in Friday’s home opener, according to Las Vegas, with an over/under of 57 points. The Broncos are 17-3 in their last 20 games as a favorite in Albertsons Stadium, and they’re 12-8 against the spread. UTEP is 1-19 in its last 20 games as an underdog on the road and 9-9-2 ATS.
My pick (1-0 straight up, 0-1 ATS): Boise State is a dangerous team to face this week. It’s coming off a big letdown against UCF — which, like the Broncos, wants to lay claim to the title of king of the Group of Five. At least until the Knights’ expected move to the Big 12, according to reports. The Broncos are going to have something to prove this week, and the 26 points they’re favored by might not be enough. Look for them to try once again to establish the running game, even if starting running back George Holani doesn’t play, but I would expect Boise State to throw it around a bit more this week and light up the scoreboard the way Plough promised he would. Final score: Boise State 45, UTEP 14
Ron Counts is the Idaho Statesman’s Boise State football beat writer. Contact him at rcounts@idahostatesman.com and follow @Ron_BroncoBeat on Twitter.
UTEP AT BOISE STATE
When: 7:30 p.m. Friday
Where: Albertsons Stadium
TV: FS1 (Alex Faust, Petros Papadakis). That’s channel 146 on Sparklight, 219 on DirecTV and 150 on Dish Network.
Radio: KBOI 670 AM/KTIK 93.1 FM (Bob Behler, Pete Cavender)
Records: Boise State 0-1; UTEP 2-0
Series: Boise State leads the all-time series 5-0, with three wins in Albertsons Stadium. The former WAC rivals haven’t played since 2004.
Vegas line: Boise State by 26
Weather: 55 degrees at game time with scattered thunderstorms, 43% chance of rain, 8 mph winds.
This story was originally published September 8, 2021 at 4:00 AM.
