Keys to victory, matchups and predictions for the Mountain West championship in Las Vegas
The Mountain West football championship game is at a neutral location, but it’s a venue Boise State knows well.
The Broncos hit the road to face No. 25 San Jose State on Saturday (2:40 p.m. MT, Fox) at Sam Boyd Stadium in Las Vegas, which used to be where UNLV called home before Allegiant Stadium opened this year.
Boise State is 7-1 at Sam Boyd Stadium, and the Broncos have played in five Las Vegas Bowls there, going 4-1 in them. Their lone loss was a 38-7 setback against Washington last December in former Boise State coach Chris Petersen’s final game with the Huskies.
At Sam Boyd, the Broncos own four wins over Power Five programs — Utah (2010), Arizona State (2011), Washington (2012) and Oregon (2017) — and three over UNLV.
San Jose State presents a different kind of challenge this week, though. The Spartans are on a historic run — going 6-0 for the first time since 1939 and posting their first winning season since 2012.
The Broncos are 14-0 all-time against San Jose State, but the Spartans have to feel like they’re a team of destiny, and like this is their best shot in years to knock off the perennial powerhouse in the conference.
Boise State and San Jose State were supposed to play Nov. 28 in Boise. The Spartans made the trip, but the game was canceled less than 5 hours before kickoff.
The Broncos say they’re excited about the rematch.
“We’re really locked in and focused and ready to go,” Boise State wide receiver Khalil Shakir said. “That’s a big part of this program, winning games and winning championships.”
San Jose State coach Brent Brennan called it the biggest game in the history of his program.
“We are climbing the mountain, and that’s all I’m worried about right now,” said Brennan, who was named Mountain West Coach of the Year on Tuesday.
The Spartans are in the title game for the first time in program history. Boise State is looking for its fifth championship, which would be the most in conference history.
Keys to victory
When in doubt, give it to Shakir: If there’s one player on the Boise State roster who has been nearly unstoppable this year, it’s wide receiver Khalil Shakir. When a third down needs to be converted, quarterback Hank Bachmeier looks his way first. Whether he is catching a pass, running a jet sweep or being a decoy, Shakir has a knack for when to turn it on, and this weekend would be one of those times. Boise State needs to get the ball in his hands early and often, and when coverage drifts his way in the second half, maybe someone else will be open.
Establish the run: There’s been no official word on if running back George Holani will play, but he did not look healthy in the little he played last week at Wyoming. Andrew Van Buren will probably get the bulk of the carries again, and the Broncos need him to use that 230-pound frame to keep the chains moving. San Jose State has an offense that can rack up points in a hurry, and the best way to keep that from happening is by keeping it on the sideline with sustained drives.
Stay aggressive on defense: There’s a tendency to play it a little safe defensively against a high-powered offense in an effort to not give up big plays, but Boise State can’t afford to do that on Saturday. The Broncos pressured Wyoming’s quarterbacks from the opening whistle last weekend, and their five sacks were a big reason they won that game. San Jose State quarterback Nick Starkel has been around and seen plenty of football, and if the Broncos let him sit in the pocket and go through his progression, he will thrive.
Key matchups
Boise State OT John Ojukwu vs. San Jose State DE Cade Hall: Bachmeier called San Jose State’s defensive front seven one of the best the Broncos will have faced all season. Defensive end Cade Hall has a lot to do with that. He leads the conference with eight sacks and his nine tackles for loss rank No. 2 at San Jose State, and on Tuesday, Hall was named the Mountain West Defensive Player of the Year. The Spartans are sure to move Hall all over the line in search of a matchup to exploit, but this is exactly the type of game where left tackle John Ojukwu has a chance to make a name for himself.
San Jose State WR Tre Walker vs. Boise State CB Jalen Walker: Tre Walker came into the season as a known commodity after he led the Mountain West last year with 1,161 receiving yards, but the surprise on the Spartans’ roster has been sixth-year senior Bailey Gaither. He leads the team with 36 catches for 627 yards and four touchdowns, so he’s sure to demand some attention from the secondary. Walker (31 catches, 409 yards, 3 TDs) also remains a threat, and Boise State’s top cornerback, Jalen Walker, is sure to match up with him.
Predictions
Boise State is a 6.5-point favorite, according to Las Vegas, with an over/under of 56 total points. The Broncos are 15-5 in their last 20 regular- and postseason games as the favorite on the road and 10-9-1 against the spread.
San Jose State is 3-17 in its last 20 regular- and postseason games as an underdog on the road and 11-8-1 ATS.
My pick (6-0 straight up, 4-2 ATS): San Jose State has the offensive firepower to make this a high-scoring game, and on defense, the Spartans are only giving up 17.5 points a game. But the Spartans’ offense is one-dimensional, and without a running game to slow down the pass rush, they could be in trouble, especially if Boise State brings as much pressure as last week (five sacks vs. Wyoming). In the end, this one is going to come down to which offense can stay on the field and who can hit on a big play when it matters most. Andrew Van Buren gives the Broncos just enough in the running game, and who is more of a sure thing than Khalil Shakir when a play needs to be made? Boise State 28, San Jose State 21
Betting expert Lee Sterling of Paramount Sports, who appears weekly on KTIK (6-0 straight up, 4-2 ATS): “(The Spartans) are not road kill anymore. The best defenses this year have held Boise (State) down — BYU and Wyoming. The only thing I’ve found Boise (State) consistently does better (than San Jose State) is in special teams they have five blocked kicks and San Jose State has none. Unless Boise (State’s) special teams are special, unless they can pull off a trick play, unless the quarterback play is incredible, I think they’re going to have a tough time. If this game is in Boise, Boise (State) wins by double digits. Not so fast. I’m taking San Jose State plus the six (points). Boise State 30, San Jose State 27
Ron Counts is the Idaho Statesman’s Boise State football beat writer. Contact him at rcounts@idahostatesman.com and follow @Ron_BroncoBeat on Twitter.
BOISE STATE VS. SAN JOSE STATE
When: 2:40 p.m. MT Saturday
Where: Sam Boyd Stadium, Las Vegas
TV: Fox (Tim Brando, Spencer Tillman).
Radio: KBOI 670 AM/KTIK 93.1 FM (Bob Behler, Pete Cavender)
Records: Boise State 5-1, 5-0 Mountain West; San Jose State 6-0, 6-0
Series: Boise State leads 14-0 (last meeting: Boise State won 52-42 last season in San Jose, California)
Vegas line: Boise State by 6.5
Weather: High of 57 degrees, sunny, 4 mph winds
This story was originally published December 18, 2020 at 4:00 AM.
