Keys to victory, matchups and predictions for Boise State football’s road test at Air Force
Boise State has won three straight games against Air Force, but Falcon Stadium is one of the most intimidating venues in the Mountain West.
From armed guards at the gate to the uniformed cadets in the stands and signs posted around the stadium reminding the visiting team how difficult it can be to breathe at 6,621 feet, it’s unlike any other road trip the Broncos will take.
“You’re going into something that is completely different than any college campus. You’re going onto a military base. Right then and there, it’s a different feeling,” Boise State offensive line coach Brad Bedell told reporters Tuesday. “I think it’s a special part of college football, and it’s always a challenge.”
Two of Boise State’s three losses in the series have come at Air Force: a 28-14 setback in 2014 and a 27-20 loss in 2016. Those were part of three straight losses by the Broncos, who also dropped a 37-30 decision to the Falcons in 2015 at Albertsons Stadium.
In their most recent trip to Falcon Stadium in 2018, the Broncos had to put up the most points they’ve scored in the series, dating back to 2011, to escape with a 48-38 win.
Whether it’s the altitude, the novelty of the Falcons’ option offense or some unforeseen calamity, like the rear end dropping out of the bus before a win over Virginia Tech in 2010, the Broncos know they have their work cut out for them in Saturday’s game at Air Force (4 p.m., CBSSN).
“That’s not an easy place to play for us, and I think our guys understand that,” Boise State coach Bryan Harsin told reporters Monday. “We have tremendous respect for Air Force, their players, their coaches, and we’ve got to make sure that we’re ready to go out there and play our best football because we know what type of team they are.”
Keys to victory
Win on third down: The triple option is designed around short runs up the middle, which lull the defense to sleep and keep the offense in manageable third-down situations. The best way for Boise State to contain such a unique offense is to win on third down and get it off the field.
Conversely, the Broncos’ offense needs to convert its third downs and keep the Falcons’ stable of running backs on the sideline. Last week, Boise State held Utah State to 8-for-20 on third down, while the Broncos went 5-for-11. Air Force is averaging 44% on third-down conversions this season.
Get Shakir vertical early: Option teams can score points in a hurry, but the Falcons tend to struggle when they’re playing from behind and forced to go to the air. The Broncos need to take some shots early and repeat last week’s first-half performance, which sent them into halftime with a 28-0 lead over Utah State.
Wide receiver Khalil Shakir reminded fans last weekend that he’s a deep threat, and he needs some early targets on Saturday. He hauled in a 52-yard touchdown catch from quarterback Hank Bachmeier early in the second quarter and finished with seven catches for a career-high 123 yards.
Disciplined defense: Boise State pressured Utah State quarterback Jason Shelley from the opening whistle last weekend. The Broncos are likely to be aggressive up front again, but they also know they have to stay disciplined or risk giving up a big run. Especially on the edge, where defensive end Demitri Washington and STUD Sam Whitney roam, they can’t over pursue or Air Force quarterback Haaziq Daniels will find running lanes and make it a very long day.
Key matchups
Boise State LB Ezekiel Noa vs. Air Force RB Kadin Remsberg: Collisions are a way of life for linebackers, and that will be especially true on Saturday. Remsberg is going to take plenty of handoffs straight up the gut, and Noa has to be there to meet him. The more he can help clog the middle, the more the Falcons will be forced to string plays out on the perimeter, where Boise State’s athletes will be waiting.
Boise State QB Hank Bachmeier vs. a rebuilt secondary: The Falcons have new starters across the board in the secondary. Veteran safeties Jeremy Fejedelem and Grant Thiel and cornerback Zane Lewis are gone, replaced in part by junior safety Corvan Taylor and senior cornerback Elisha Palm, both of whom have an interception this season.
Whether he’s targeting Shakir deep or tight end John Bates over the middle, look for Bachmeier to find some mismatches in the secondary. Last weekend, he completed 20-of-28 pass attempts for 268 yards and three touchdowns and added a rushing score.
Predictions
Boise State is a 14-point favorite in Las Vegas, with an over/under of 49 total points. The Broncos are 8-2, and 5-4-1 against the spread (ATS), in their past 10 regular-season games as the favorite on the road.
Air Force is 2-8 and 6-4 ATS in its past 10 games as an underdog.
My pick (1-0 straight up, 1-0 ATS): Boise State’s run defense was rock solid last weekend, except for a drive or two in the third quarter, and the Broncos’ skill players showed there wasn’t much rust to knock off. I expect Boise State to come out with an aggressive passing attack, especially against Air Force’s rebuilt secondary, and build another big lead heading into halftime. Boise State 45, Air Force 21
Betting expert Lee Sterling of Paramount Sports, who appears weekly on KTIK (1-0 straight up, 1-0 ATS): “Air Force has got some real problems. Now we know that win over Navy was an absolute mirage. … I think Air Force has problems at quarterback, their line is not getting any push. Boise (State) looked like they picked up right where they left off last year when they were healthy.” Boise State 38, Air Force 13
Ron Counts is the Idaho Statesman’s Boise State football beat writer. Contact him at rcounts@idahostatesman.com and follow @Ron_BroncoBeat on Twitter.
NO. 25 BOISE STATE AT AIR FORCE
When: 4 p.m. Saturday
Where: Falcon Stadium, Air Force Academy, Colorado
TV: CBS Sports Network (Carter Blackburn, Aaron Taylor, Jenny Dell). That’s channel 139 on Sparklight, 221 on DirecTV and 158 on Dish Network.
Radio: KBOI 670 AM/KTIK 93.1 FM (Bob Behler, Pete Cavender)
Records: Boise State 1-0; Air Force 1-1
Series: Boise State leads 5-3 (last meeting: Boise State won 30-19 in 2019 in Albertsons Stadium)
Vegas line: Boise State by 14
Weather: High of 61 degrees, clear skies, 8 mph wind at kickoff
