The safest prediction for Boise State-San Diego State: Something strange will happen

Making a prediction for a Boise State-San Diego State football game is almost pointless.

When the Broncos and Aztecs get together, weird things happen. So do upsets.

These are two quality programs with terrific talent, outstanding coaches and extreme motivation to beat each other. If they played every year, it would be a heck of a rivalry. As it is, it’s the best matchup the Mountain West has — even if, somehow, the conference’s top two programs of this decade never have met in the conference championship game.

The only Boise State-San Diego State game that went remotely according to expectation was the first one, in 2011. Boise State QB Kellen Moore lit up the Aztecs for 366 yards and four touchdowns to lead a 52-35 victory. But even that was weird — the over/under that night was 55.5 points and the teams scored 87.

The Aztecs avenged that loss in a stunner in 2012, winning 21-19 at Albertsons Stadium. Boise State was favored by 16 points but allowed a kickoff return for a TD, allowed a blocked punt that set up a TD and botched a snap on a swinging gate two-point conversion.

[Related: How to watch, attend Boise State-San Diego State]

Underdog San Diego State was victorious again in 2013 — prevailing 34-31 in overtime in San Diego. The Aztecs erased fourth-quarter deficits with an interception return and a punt return for touchdowns and Boise State’s Dan Goodale missed a potential game-winning field goal at the end of regulation.

Boise State broke the San Diego State hex in 2014, but not before falling behind 20-0 on a 9-degree night at Albertsons Stadium. Jay Ajayi rushed for three touchdowns in the second half as the Broncos rallied for a 38-29 win as 14-point favorites.

And then there was last year — the first time that San Diego State met Boise State as the favorite (4.5 points). The Aztecs were rolling at 6-0 and ranked No. 19, and Boise State was in a fog. But the Broncos flipped the script on the Aztecs — scoring first-quarter touchdowns on a punt return and a fumble return to fuel a 31-14 upset.

[Related: Sports Pass subscription offers a year of sports coverage for $30; The 208 Podcast features Dave Southorn]

All told, the underdog has won three of the five meetings between the Broncos and Aztecs. And the favorite is 0-5 against the spread.

Those aren’t good trends for Boise State, which enters Saturday’s game at Albertsons Stadium (1:30 p.m., ESPNU) as a 14-point favorite (over/under of 52). Both teams are 3-1 this season.

My pick (3-1 straight up, 1-3 ATS): There’s every reason to pick against the Aztecs, who will be starting backups at quarterback and running back and have made too many mistakes in pass defense this season (10 pass plays of 30 yards or more allowed). But this is Boise State-San Diego State, so I’m not falling for that. San Diego State coach Rocky Long’s defense is tricky, which is going to put a heavy mental load on Boise State’s offensive line, and he’s going to focus on limiting Boise State quarterback Brett Rypien. That means the Broncos must run the ball, which they did last year in San Diego but have struggled to do with any consistency this year. Boise State will win, barring another special teams gaffe or a pick six, but it won’t be easy. Boise State 27, San Diego State 20

San Diego State perspective, from Kirk Kenney of the San Diego Union-Tribune (opposing view is 4-0, 1-3): The Aztecs face the biggest challenge on the conference schedule, and they do so with all backups in the backfield. Injuries have sidelined quarterback Christian Chapman (sprained knee), tailback Juwan Washington (fractured clavicle) and fullback Isaac Lessard (neck). They have been replaced by quarterback Ryan Agnew, tailback Chase Jasmin and fullback Chad Woolsey. Agnew, whose running ability makes him a dual threat, and Jasmin, who has averaged more than 100 rushing yards the past two games, have performed ably in the starters’ absence. Woolsey is more of an unknown, which is a concern in SDSU’s run-heavy offense. The Aztecs’ biggest challenge on defense will, of course, be stopping Boise State quarterback Brett Rypien. SDSU’s secondary has had its struggles so far this season. That was due mostly to outstanding wide receivers in games against Stanford and Arizona State. This time it’s because of the best quarterback they’re likely to see this season. They could be helped with an improved rush up front with the return of defensive tackle Noble Hall Jr. (dislocated wrist). Boise State 35, San Diego State 24

Betting expert Lee Sterling of Paramount Sports, who appears Thursdays on KTIK (3-1, 3-1): “No one is running on the San Diego State defense. ... Whatever is put in front of them, they keep staying in these games.” Boise State 27, San Diego State 20

College football spotlight

National game of the week — No. 19 Texas vs. No. 7 Oklahoma (-7.5), 10 a.m. Saturday, FOX: The Longhorns are ... back? Not yet. Oklahoma 34, Texas 24

Mountain West game of the week — Navy (-3) at Air Force, 1:30 p.m. Saturday, CBSSN: A chance for the Mountain West to grab another win in its battle with the American. Air Force 31, Navy 28

Pac-12 game of the week — Arizona State at No. 21 Colorado (-2.5), 2 p.m. Saturday, PAC12: Two of the more surprising teams in college football clash in Boulder. Buffaloes show they’re for real in Pac-12 South. Colorado 23, Arizona State 17

Chadd Cripe is the Idaho Statesman’s sports columnist. Contact him at ccripe@idahostatesman.com and follow @chaddcripe on Twitter.

This story was originally published October 4, 2018 at 11:53 AM.