Expect ‘tension’ as Boise State, Wyoming clash. And a closer score than Vegas predicts.
It’s tempting to pick the Boise State football team to roll to victory Saturday at Wyoming.
The Broncos (2-1) are coming off a humbling loss at Oklahoma State and a bye week, a recipe for a focused approach and improved play. They also remember their last trip to Laramie, a heartbreaking loss that ended their quest for an undefeated season in 2016. Boise State led that game 21-7 and lost 30-28 on, of all things, a safety.
Those are among the reasons — along with the red-hot play of quarterback Brett Rypien — that Vegas has installed Boise State as a 17-point favorite (47 over/under).
“It’s a little tension between Boise State and Wyoming,” Boise State senior wide receiver A.J. Richardson said. “... Coming back to their house, definitely seeking revenge.”
Wyoming (2-2) is gritty, particularly at home (13-4 in past 17 games; two wins vs. ranked teams), and has a defense that can exploit what appears to be Boise State’s one offensive question mark: the offensive line.
In the last three meetings, the Broncos have won by 10 and 20 at home and lost by two on the road. They haven’t scored more than 34 points in those encounters, and they actually trailed 14-10 in the fourth quarter last year in Boise.
The Cowboys have built confidence they can beat the Broncos — adding competitive fire to a once-lopsided series.
“There’s a different belief even by me,” coach Craig Bohl said, according to WyoSports.net. “It has gone from let’s not just look to go out and compete, let’s go out to win. That comes from a deep belief in the players, not only their level of commitment, but their deep belief in one another that we can win.”
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This is the conference opener for both teams — and that brings in one of Boise State’s longest-running streaks. The Broncos have won 18 straight conference openers. They never lost one in 10 years in the WAC and they are 7-0 so far in the Mountain West.
Like many of Boise State’s impressive streaks already have, that one will end. Eventually.
But this isn’t the week anyone would want to confront Boise State, motivated by that 44-21 loss two weeks ago in Stillwater.
My pick (2-1 overall, 1-2 ATS): Boise State got beaten by a more athletic, better-prepared opponent at Oklahoma State. Neither of those factors should be an issue at Wyoming, where the Broncos suffered one of the most painful losses in recent program history two years ago and will be hungry for redemption. For Boise State to win big, the Broncos need to get running back Alexander Mattison rolling and warm up the Turnover Throne (they have one takeaway over the past two games). Wyoming will make those tasks difficult and keep the score respectable — but its offense (19.5 points per game) makes the upset unlikely. Boise State 31, Wyoming 17
Wyoming perspective, from Robert Gagliardi of WyoSports.net (opposing view is 3-0, 1-2): The Cowboys must be balanced on offense and do a much better job of moving the chains as they’ve converted only 34 percent of their third downs through the first four games. Defensively, Wyoming must get a push up front. It can’t allow Boise State to run the ball well, and it must make senior quarterback Brett Rypien — at the very least — uncomfortable. The last two games between these two teams have been good and competitive. This one should be as well, but Boise State has a little more experience and firepower. Boise State 27, Wyoming 17
Betting expert Lee Sterling of Paramount Sports, who appears Thursdays on KTIK (2-1, 2-1): “(The Cowboys) have got some real problems on the offensive side of the ball. ... It’s a bad time for the Cowboys to catch a real angry Bronco bunch here.” Boise State 38, Wyoming 14
College football spotlight
National game of the week — No. 4 Ohio State (-3) at No. 9 Penn State, 5:30 p.m. Saturday, ABC: This has been a fun game in recent years — and will be again. But the Buckeyes have too many weapons. Ohio State 37, Penn State 30
Mountain West game of the week — Toledo at Fresno State (-8), 8:30 p.m. Saturday, ESPNU: A contrast of styles in a meaningful game for the MW because Toledo looks like a 10-game winner. The Rockets are scoring 51 points per game; the Bulldogs are allowing 16 points per game. Defense wins. Fresno State 38, Toledo 35
Pac-12 game of the week — No. 20 BYU at No. 11 Washington (-17): The Huskies haven’t played up to the hype so far this season. The Cougars are one of the nation’s surprise teams. Washington is better, but not blowout-win better. Washington 24, BYU 17
Chadd Cripe is the Idaho Statesman’s sports columnist. Contact him at ccripe@idahostatesman.com and follow @chaddcripe on Twitter.