Boise State at Nevada men’s basketball series: How to watch, prediction and odds
Aside from in-state foes Idaho and Idaho State, there are few teams Boise State has played more over the years than Nevada.
The Wolf Pack own the edge in the all-time series, 48-28, including a 26-11 record against the Broncos inside Lawlor Events Center in Reno, Nevada.
According to KenPom.com, Lawlor Events Center ranks No. 36 among Division I arenas for home-court advantage, and the Broncos have not won in Reno since 2016.
With only band members and cheerleaders allowed at games this season, the Broncos hope to neutralize Nevada’s home-court advantage during their two-game Mountain West series set for 7 p.m. Friday and 2 p.m. Sunday. Both games will be televised on Fox Sports 1.
But even in a relatively empty arena, Boise State coach Leon Rice sees Nevada as a dangerous team on the rise. The Wolf Pack are coming off a sweep of UNLV, which was their first series at full strength this season.
“They’ve got a good plan, and they’re settling into that plan,” Rice said during a Zoom interview on Thursday. “They know where their shots are coming from. They’ve got guys that can put it on the floor. They’ve got big guys now that are scoring on the block . They’ve kind of got all the pieces, and what I see is a team that’s coming together.”
Key to Nevada’s offensive attack is the backcourt duo of sophomore point guard Grant Sherfield and junior guard Desmond Cambridge Jr. The Wolf Pack rank No. 11 in the nation with 411 free-throw attempts. Sherfield leads the way in that category, ranking sixth nationally in free throws made (97) and 12th in free-throw attempts (111). His 108 assists rank No. 6.
Cambridge is the league’s top 3-point shooter with 49 made triples, which are tied for the 21st-most in the country this season. Sherfield and Cambridge average a combined 33.2 points per game.
Nevada power forward Zane Meeks missed multiple games this season with a sore knee, but he returned to the lineup against UNLV and scored in double figures in both wins.
“I thought they played some of their best ball, especially that first game against their rival,” Rice said. “... They looked spectacular. They hit 14 threes. They took great shots, they guard. I mean, I couldn’t find anything they did wrong.
“They went down to one possession both games with San Diego State. This is a really, really good team, and (Nevada coach Steve) Alford’s a great coach. This is gonna be a huge, huge challenge, and I think our guys know that.”
Update: Nevada defeated Boise State 74-72 in Game 1.
NOTABLES
▪ After a split at Colorado State, the Broncos lost ground in both Top 25 polls. In The Associated Press poll, Boise State received 23 points, down from a high of 108 points the previous week. In the USA Today Coaches poll, BSU dropped from 60 points last week to seven points this week.
“It’s a tough thing when you’re just outside the Top 25. They expect you to be perfect,” Rice told Bob Behler on 670 AM. “Well, I guarantee, you take most of those, maybe outside of the top five, take most of those teams and have them go play a two-game series at Colorado State, and I think a lot of them would be pretty darn happy to get a split.”
▪ Boise State announced on Monday that a limited number of immediate family members of student-athletes and coaches can begin attending games at ExtraMile Arena. The men next play at home on Feb. 11 and Feb. 13 against UNLV. Fans will be required to test negative for COVID-19 in order to attend. Boise-based Central District Health still has a limit on gatherings of more than 50 people that is more restrictive than the Stage 3 order put in place by Idaho Gov. Brad Little on Tuesday. CDH said in an email to the Idaho Statesman that the governor’s “attestation option” would not apply in Ada County. Boise State said it would admit family members on a “case by case” basis.
▪ Rice can match Bobby Dye’s program-record 213 victories by defeating Nevada on Friday. He can become the winningest coach in program history with a sweep of Nevada. Dye reached 213 wins in 12 seasons at Boise State. Rice is in his 11th season with the Broncos and currently has 212 wins.
▪ Boise State redshirt junior Mladen Armus’ extra effort on the offensive boards has moved him into a tie for No. 45 in the nation with 3.06 offensive rebounds per game. Armus averages a team-best 7.4 rebounds per game.
“He puts in the time, and he’s a worker,” Rice said. “He’s just going to continue to get better, and the sky’s the limit. That’s what I’m excited about. I can’t wait to see how great he becomes.”
BOISE STATE AT NEVADA
When: 2 p.m. MT Sunday
Where: Lawlor Events Center in Reno, Nevada
TV: Fox Sports 1 (Tim Neverett and Doug Gottlieb)
Radio: KBOI 670 AM (Bob Behler, Abe Jackson)
Records: Boise State 14-3, 10-2 MW; Nevada 13-7, 8-5 MW
Series: Nevada 49-28
Last meeting: Boise State won 73-64 on Feb. 1, 2020, in Boise
Vegas line: Boise State by 3.5
KenPom rating: Boise State 60; Nevada 97
KenPom & ESPN predictions
Ken Pomeroy, who created the popular college basketball statistical website KenPom.com, ranks every Division I team using an adjusted efficiency margin, which Pomeroy defines as the difference between a team’s offensive and defensive efficiency.
According to Pomeroy’s detailed statistical analysis, Boise State has a 59% chance of beating Nevada. His score prediction is a 74-71 BSU victory.
ESPN’s College Basketball Power Index: Boise State has a 68.4% chance of winning with a predicted point differential of 5.1.
Note: All rankings and stats through Wednesday’s games.
Women’s basketball: Broncos host Wolf Pack
Perhaps some authentic cheers will give Boise State the energy it needs to stop a four-game losing streak.
For the first time this season, immediate family members of players and coaches will be able to attend the Broncos’ two-game series against Nevada at 2 p.m. Friday and noon Sunday at ExtraMile Arena. Boise State (8-5, 5-5 MW) has won seven in a row over Nevada (8-7, 4-6) and leads the all-time series 44-17.
The sound of real fans will no doubt be a welcome change from the pumped-in crowd noise that’s been playing over the speakers inside the empty arena all season. The Broncos have been swept in back-to-back conference series against Fresno State and Colorado State and are hoping to avoid the program’s first five-game losing streak since the 2012-13 season.
“I’ve really, really appreciated our kids’ attitude these last few practices on Monday and Tuesday,” Boise State coach Gordy Presnell said. “They’ve gone after it really hard and hopefully we can take the positive and learn from the negatives and be ready for this weekend.”
Presnell can reach 700 career wins with his next Boise State victory.
Both games against the Wolf Pack will be streamed live at BroncoSports.com/mwn, or listen on the radio on 1350 AM.
Update: Boise State defeated Nevada 73-63 in Game 1.
This story was originally published February 4, 2021 at 3:44 PM.
