As Idaho’s population moves from rural to urban, so, too, will the state Legislature
Idaho, like much of the United States, shifted to become more urban and less rural, according to the newest U.S. Census numbers, released last week.
A look at the growth of Idaho’s legislative districts shows that population shift will have an impact on the state Legislature.
“It’s not going to be this massive shift and suddenly there are a lot fewer rural districts,” Matthew May, senior research associate at the Idaho Policy Institute and the School of Public Service at Boise State University, told me in a video interview. “It’s just the rural districts are going to get bigger (geographically), and they’ll get bigger so that you can add more districts to where the population centers are.”
Those population centers — Boise, Coeur d’Alene, Twin Falls and Idaho Falls — stand to gain legislative seats at the expense of rural counties.
Members of the Idaho redistricting commission, scheduled to begin meeting next month, will use population figures from the 2020 Census to draw new district lines, dividing the districts as evenly as possible.
Based on Idaho’s population of 1,839,106, the target population for each Idaho legislative district will be 52,546 people. That’s up from the previous legislative district size of 44,788 people.
Under the redistricting process, legislative districts are allowed to vary by 5% from the ideal. So this year, as redistricting commission members are drawing the maps, any one district could be as small as 49,918 people or as large as 55,173.
Four districts in Ada County, two districts in both Kootenai County and Bonneville County, and at least one district in Canyon County would need to be split up because they’re too large for the target district size.
In particular, commission members should take into account how quickly the Treasure Valley is growing and how quickly it likely will grow in the next 10 years. Ten of the top 15 fastest-growing legislative districts over the past 10 years are in the Treasure Valley, according to the Census data.
More than half of Idaho’s growth from 2010 to 2020 occurred in Ada and Canyon counties, which now account for 39% of the state’s population.
The starkest example is Idaho’s District 14, in western Ada County, which has grown to more than 71,000 people, meaning new lines will need to be drawn to carve nearly 19,000 people out of that district.
Districts 20, 21 and 22, all in the southern parts of Ada County, including parts of Meridian, Kuna and unincorporated Ada County, are also over the limit.
Ada County currently has nine legislative districts: 14 through 22. At a current population of 494,967, Ada County could have 10 legislative districts, averaging 49,497 people per district. That’s less than the ideal size of 52,546, and it falls just below the lower range of acceptable district size. But it makes sense to leave a little wiggle room, anticipating Ada County’s continued fast growth.
In Canyon County, District 12 would need to be split up, and the three other districts 10, 11 and 13, are just barely within the top edge of the acceptable range.
With a population of 231,105, Canyon County doesn’t have quite enough for a fifth legislative district, but it is enough to add a significant number of rural Canyon County voters into a mixed-county legislative district, such as District 9.
“There’s going to be a lot of challenge for this commission to get the districts back into conformity, and the challenge includes this issue of maintaining county boundaries,” said Gary Moncrief, professor emeritus at Boise State University and Idaho’s foremost expert on redistricting. “I don’t see any way that Ada County does not gain at least one seat out of this new redistricting.”
It may not be a huge political shift, but as Idaho’s population slowly becomes more urban, so, too, will its Legislature.
BEHIND THE STORY
MOREWhat is this column all about?
This column shares the personal opinions of Idaho Statesman opinion editor Scott McIntosh on current issues in the Treasure Valley, in Idaho and nationally. It represents one person’s opinion and is intended to spur a conversation and solicit others’ opinions. It is intended to be part of an ongoing civil discussion with the ultimate goal of providing solutions to community problems and making this a better place to live, work and play.
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