Idaho Republicans benefit from a ‘Trump bump’ in the election
If there’s any indication of why Republican politicians, particularly in Idaho, stick with their main man, Donald Trump, through thick and thin, Tuesday’s election is it.
Idaho appears to have experienced a “Trump bump,” sending Republicans to victories in state legislative and county commission races.
Nearly 150,000 more Idahoans voted for Donald Trump this year than did in 2016.
As of Thursday’s unofficial tally from the Idaho Secretary of State’s Office, 554,019 Idahoans voted for Trump. Compare that to 2016, when Trump received 409,055 votes in Idaho.
Some would-be Trump voters in 2016 may have voted for Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson or independent candidate Evan McMullin. Still, those two candidates combined accounted for only 74,807 votes, or about 11% of the total.
Even taking that into consideration, it’s clear that tens of thousands of Idahoans who did not vote for Trump or didn’t vote at all in 2016 showed up to vote for Trump this time around.
That jibes with national numbers, as Trump has gained an estimated 5 million to 6 million additional votes this year compared with 2016.
For sure, there was also a “Biden bump,” although it was smaller in Idaho.
In 2016, Hillary Clinton received 189,765 votes in Idaho. This year, Biden received 286,994 votes, a 97,229-vote increase.
Trump was also able to increase his share of Idaho voters, taking 64% of the Idaho vote, compared with his 59.2% showing in 2016 in Idaho.
The increased Trump turnout this year may also explain why so many Republicans took previously held Democratic seats.
Most notably on the local front, Republican Ryan Davidson unseated incumbent Democrat Diana Lachiondo from the Ada County Commission by more than 6,000 votes. In the other Ada County Commission race, Republican Rod Beck defeated Democrat Bill Rutherford by nearly 20,000 votes.
When Idaho Press reporter Betsy Russell asked Davidson on Wednesday during a Republican Party press conference to what he attributes his win, Davidson was unequivocal.
“Well, I think one of the biggest factors was President Trump,” he said, then pointed to a bystander holding a giant Trump flag. “We got a Trump supporter right here with the flag, and I think that’s great evidence that our president inspired a lot more people to go to the polls who otherwise maybe wouldn’t have.”
Trump won Ada County, 130,699 votes, or 50.3%, to Biden’s 120,539, or 46.4%.
That closely matches Davidson’s 128,121 votes, or 51.2%, to Lachiondo’s 121,963 votes, or 48.8%.
In the state Legislature, incumbent Democratic Rep. Jake Ellis in Boise’s District 15 lost to Republican challenger Codi Galloway by a little over 1,000 votes.
In Bannock County’s District 29, Democratic incumbent Rep. Chris Abernathy lost to Republican challenger Dustin Manwaring by nearly 1,500 votes.
Those wins now give the Republicans 58 seats in the House, while Democrats drop to 12 seats in the House, heading into a session that likely will feature legislation about executive power, the authority of public health districts and school choice.
In the Senate, Democrats were able to hang on to their seven seats, as Latah County’s District 5 incumbent Democrat Sen. David Nelson appears to have held off a challenge from Republican Dan Foreman by a mere 185 votes. With all Senate seats unchanged by party, Republicans have an advantage of 28-7 in the Senate.
Overall, the number of people voting in Ada County increased by 60,000 this year compared with 2016, from 202,971 to 262,808.
In 2016, Trump carried Ada County with 93,752 votes, or 47.9%, compared with Hillary Clinton’s 75,677 votes, or 38.7%.
Trump increased his vote total in Ada County by nearly 37,000 votes, while Biden added 44,862 votes over Clinton’s total in 2016.
With less impact from third-party candidates, both candidates increased their shares of the vote in Ada County, Trump to 50.3%, and Biden to 46.4%.
“As I thought specifically about Ada County a little bit,” state Sen. Chuck Winder, R-Boise, said during Wednesday’s Republican Party press conference, “to take back the two county commissioner seats, is really amazing, and it was because of the red wave that occurred in Ada County. I’ve always known that there were more Republicans, more conservatives in Ada County than were voting, and this election got them out, got them motivated.”
This story was originally published November 6, 2020 at 4:00 AM.
CORRECTION: Editor’s note: This article has been updated to correct President Donald Trump increased his vote total by 150,000 in the Gem State.
BEHIND THE STORY
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