Playoff picks: These 7 Boise-area football teams will advance to Idaho state semifinals
With the opening round of the playoffs in the books, the real show gets started this weekend as the heavyweights return to the field for the state quarterfinals.
Fourteen Treasure Valley teams enter the weekend with their state championship dreams still alive, including Eagle, Meridian and Homedale after their first-round byes. The quarterfinals will winnow the field. But how far?
We examined the 5A, 4A and 3A matchups in the Treasure Valley below and made our predictions, including one veteran coach’s shot at his 300th career victory.
MOUNTAIN VIEW (7-3) AT MERIDIAN (6-3)
Kickoff: 7 p.m. Friday
Broadcast: NFHSNetwork.com
Key stat: 2 — Straight years Meridian has beaten Mountain View in the playoffs
Mountain View key to victory: Win on first down. Meridian is more than happy to grind out 3 or 4 yards at a time and drain the clock with its Wing-T offense. The Mavericks learned that in last year’s semifinals, when the Warriors ate up 35 minutes, 10 seconds in their victory. But get a few stops on first downs and force Meridian into obvious passing situations, and the game turns in Mountain View’s favor.
Meridian key to victory: Cut Zeke Martinez loose. Meridian remains loaded in the backfield with Rylie Byington, Marco Del Rio and Cole Jones all serving as home-run threats. But the Warriors are their most dangerous with the ball in Martinez’s hands. The three-year starting quarterback nearly single-handedly led a comeback at Rocky Mountain, breaking the pocket and picking apart a scrambling defense. The Warriors will need more of his magic to get back to the state championship game.
Prediction: Meridian 28, Mountain View 24
RIGBY (6-4) AT EAGLE (9-0)
Kickoff: 7 p.m. Friday
Broadcast: NFHSNetwork.com, IdahoSports.com (audio)
Key stat: 5-0 — Rigby’s record in playoff games in the Treasure Valley since 2019.
Eagle key to victory: Contain Luke Flowers. The Montana commit torched the Mustangs’ defense in a 37-6 win at Eagle in the same round last year, throwing for 254 yards and four touchdowns. Eagle’s pass rush remains one of the state’s best and a chief reason it enters the playoff as the unanimous No. 1 team. But Rigby remains the two-time defending state champ, and the reigning 5A All-Idaho Player of the Year can make anything happen.
Prediction: Eagle 34, Rigby 28
OWYHEE (8-2) VS. HIGHLAND (8-1)
Kickoff: 5:30 p.m. Friday at Holt Arena
Broadcast: NFHSNetwork.com, IdahoSports.com (audio)
Key stat: 34 — Straight years Highland has made the state playoffs, the longest streak in 5A.
Owyhee key to victory: Bend, but don’t break — again. A stout defense (15 ppg) led the Storm to new heights, including the first playoff win in program history. Owyhee kept Boise’s explosive offense in check, and it will have to do it again against Highland. The Rams are the second-highest scoring team in 5A (34.7 ppg) and are used to playing in November. Quarterback Drew Hymas sat out the Rams’ regular-season finale for “precautionary reasons,” the Idaho State Journal reported. If he returns, the Storm face their toughest challenge yet.
Prediction: Highland 21, Owyhee 17
ROCKY MOUNTAIN (7-3) AT COEUR D’ALENE (7-2)
Kickoff: 8 p.m. MT Friday
Broadcast: NFHSNetwork.com, IdahoSports.com (audio)
Key stat: 38 — Turnovers forced by the Coeur d’Alene defense, 18 more than Rocky Mountain among 5A leaders
Rocky Mountain key to victory: Hang on to the ball. The Grizzlies scored a 16-0 win in Coeur d’Alene on Aug. 25 thanks to their defense, which racked up seven sacks and forced five turnovers. But Rocky Mountain committed five turnovers of its own, a feat it can’t expect to repeat and come home with another win. Not with quarterback Caden Symons (1,550 yards, 13 TDs) making the Vikings much more dangerous offensively than they were in August.
Prediction: Rocky Mountain 22, Coeur d’Alene 15
EMMETT (7-3) AT BISHOP KELLY (10-0)
Kickoff: 7 p.m. Friday
Broadcast: NFHSNetwork.com
Key stat: 1 — Number of teams to come within 24 points of Bishop Kelly this season. It was Emmett in a 42-35 loss Oct. 6.
Emmett key to victory: Control the clock. No one has stopped Bishop Kelly’s explosive offense, which leads 4A with 47.3 points per game. That’s where a powerful running game and a cold night come into play. The Knights can’t score if they don’t have the ball.
Bishop Kelly key to victory: Stop the run. Injuries have forced Emmett to rotate through several quarterbacks. But no matter who’s under center, the Huskies are built around a running game that hearkens back to the single-wing days. Emmett runs for 288 of its 384 yards per game. Stop that, and you stop the Huskies.
Prediction: Bishop Kelly 38, Emmett 22
SKYVIEW (7-3) VS. HILLCREST (10-0)
Kickoff: 7 p.m. Friday at Bonneville
Broadcast: NFHSNetwork.com, IdahoSports.com (audio)
Key stat: 2016 — Last time Skyview won a road playoff game
Skyview key to victory: Force turnovers. The Hawks have created only eight takeaways this season. They’ll need a lot more to pull the upset. Top-seeded Hillcrest has averaged 392 yards per game on its way to an undefeated season, and it has too many weapons for the Hawks to completely shut down the Knights. Skyview will need to steal a few extra possessions to hand Hillcrest its first loss.
Prediction: Hillcrest 35, Skyview 21
WEISER (9-1) AT KIMBERLY (10-0)
Kickoff: 7 p.m. Friday
Broadcast: NFHSNetwork.com, IdahoSports.com (audio)
Key stat: 299-87 — Career record for Weiser coach Tom Harrison entering the game
Weiser key to victory: Set up play action. Harrison’s teams have a long-earned reputation for their physical running games. But the Wolverines are their most dangerous when they can soften up defenses and then hit them over the top with big plays. Kolin Cook showed that last week when he completed only five passes — which went for 222 yards and three touchdowns.
Prediction: Weiser 29, Kimberly 20
SNAKE RIVER (6-4) AT HOMEDALE (9-0)
Kickoff: 6 p.m. Friday
Broadcast: IdahoSports.com, NFHSNetwork.com
Key stat: 30:1 — Touchdown-to-interception ratio for Homedale quarterback Dillon Fine
Homedale key to victory: Attack light boxes. Fine’s jaw-dropping numbers (2,279 total yards) force every defense to commit resources to slowing the passing attack. That means removing defenders from the box, opening up loads of room for running back Andrew Marston (679 rushing yards, nine TDs) to slice through defensive backs.
Prediction: Homedale 42, Snake River 13
This story was originally published November 1, 2023 at 6:28 PM.
