Playoff picks: These 4 Boise-area teams will play for state football titles next week
This much we know: Idaho’s 5A championship will include at least one Treasure Valley team. And Albertsons Stadium will host the game.
But will it be an all West Ada School District affair?
Will Bishop Kelly make the 4A championship and give it a Treasure Valley flavor?
How will the region’s smaller schools fare in the 3A and 1A Division II semifinals?
We broke down all seven local teams fighting for a spot in the finals this weekend, sizing up what each team needs to do to advance to the game they’ve dreamed of all season.
MOUNTAIN VIEW (7-4) AT MERIDIAN (10-0)
Kickoff: 7 p.m. Friday
Broadcast: NFHSNetwork.com, IdahoSports.com (audio only)
Key stat: 3-1 — Meridian’s record vs. Mountain View the past three years. It had lost 12 in a row to the Mavericks before that.
Mountain View key to victory: Protect the ball. Mountain View has committed only five turnovers all season, the fewest among 5A teams. But the Mavericks led the state last year before coughing it up six times to hand Meridian a 35-6 upset victory in the quarterfinals.
The No. 1-ranked Warriors have become more dangerous defensively, creating a state-leading 32 takeaways this fall. Mountain View’s offense failed to score a single point in a 13-7 loss at Meridian earlier this year. (The only points come on a defensive touchdown.) So the Mavericks can’t afford any sloppy mistakes.
Meridian key to victory: Regain its edge. Meridian didn’t look like its dominant self while gutting out an 18-6 win over Middleton last week. Coming off a bye week, the Warriors turned the ball over three times, committed nine penalties and struggled to finish drives.
That can’t happen again if Meridian plans on playing in its first state championship game since 2007. A resurgent Mountain View squad has won back-to-back road playoffs games and would love nothing more than to spoil its rival’s perfect season. Meridian needs to start dominating in all three phases again.
Prediction: Meridian 28, Mountain View 22
RIGBY (9-2) AT ROCKY MOUNTAIN (10-1)
Kickoff: 7 p.m. Friday
Broadcast: NFHSNetwork.com, IdahoSports.com (audio only)
Key stat: 4 — State titles won in a row by these two teams. Rocky Mountain won in 2018 and ‘20, and Rigby won in 2019 and ‘21.
Rocky Mountain key to victory: Contain Luke Flowers. Rigby’s junior quarterback has caught fire at the end of the season. In the past three games — all must-wins — he’s completed 76% of his passes for 711 yards and 12 touchdowns.
Rocky Mountain’s defense has not allowed a 200-yard passer all season, giving up 112 yards per game through the air. That’s thanks to a pass rush led by Parker Weatherly (nine sacks) and an athletic secondary. Those units will face their toughest challenge yet.
Prediction: Rocky Mountain 26, Rigby 20
MINICO (10-1) AT BISHOP KELLY (11-0)
Kickoff: 7 p.m. Friday
Broadcast: NFHSNetwork.com, IdahoSports.com (audio only)
Key stat: 1, 2 — Ranks of the defenses for Bishop Kelly (8.5 ppg) and Minico (11.2 ppg) among 4A teams
Bishop Kelly key to victory: Own the line of scrimmage. That’s never been a problem for the Knights this fall. But they face a new monster in Minico and its double-wing offense. Creating havoc and piles of bodies along the front remains the key to stopping its prolific attack, which averages 309 rushing yards per game, second in 4A. But unlike Vallivue’s double wing, Minico can punish teams that overcommit to the run by throwing the ball. So the Knights need to own the line without devoting all their resources to it.
Prediction: Bishop Kelly 28, Minico 13
WEISER (10-1) AT HOMEDALE (9-1)
Kickoff: 1 p.m. Saturday
Broadcast: IdahoSports.com
Key stat: 25 — Straight Homedale wins against 3A SRV opponents, including six in a row vs. Weiser
Weiser key to victory: Turn Andrew Enders loose. Weiser won a state title last year on the back of a swashbuckling quarterback. Enders (1,702 total yards, 21 TDs) has done his best impersonation of one in recent weeks, scrambling and demoralizing defenses with big runs and throws down the field. The Wolverines will need more magic and a couple of back-breaking plays from Enders to defend their title.
Homedale key to victory: Stay disciplined. The Wolverines base their T-offense around myriad ball fakes, confusing defenses and spreading the ball around to a host of weapons. Weiser ran for 165 yards against Homedale in a 21-7 loss earlier this year, only the second team to top 100 yards on the ground against the Trojans, the top defense in 3A (8.3 ppg). Shut down Weiser’s run game, and Homedale rolls into the finals for the fourth time in five years.
Prediction: Homedale 21, Weiser 15
GARDEN VALLEY (9-1) VS. DIETRICH (10-0)
Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. Friday at Holt Arena
Broadcast: NFHSNetwork.com, IdahoSports.com (audio only)
Key stat: 57.6 — Points per game Dietrich averages, the most in Idaho across all classifications
Garden Valley key to victory: Bend, but don’t break. Garden Valley held back-to-back playoff teams to a single touchdown the past two weeks. But the Wolverines face a different beast in Dietrich, which has scored 50 or more points in nine of its 10 games.
The No. 2-ranked Blue Devils will get their explosive plays. But limiting them and forcing a few turnovers — Garden Valley has created 37 this fall — will keep the Wolverines in the game. Garden Valley’s upset odds increase each time it can get off the field and put the ball in the hands of dual-threat QB Tacoma Kelly (1,642 total yards, 24 TDs).
Prediction: Dietrich 40, Garden Valley 29
This story was originally published November 9, 2022 at 3:16 PM.
