Playoff picks: These 3 Boise-area teams will play for a state football title next week
The Treasure Valley’s high school football reputation is on the line this weekend.
The Boise area sent only four teams to this week’s semifinal round, with a 4-10 performance in last week’s quarterfinals leaving the region with one of its worst representations in the past 20 years.
The last time it happened, though? Just last year.
You could dismiss that as a weird COVID-19 season, one where many Treasure Valley teams didn’t get to play as many games as their opponents around the state. But two years in a row is a troubling trend.
Of course, last year’s quartet restored some of District Three’s honor, with a 3-1 performance in the semifinals.
Can this year’s group — Meridian (5A), Eagle (5A), Weiser (3A) and Homedale (3A) — do the same?
RIGBY AT MERIDIAN
Kickoff: 7 p.m. Friday
Broadcast: NFHS Network, IdahoSports.com (audio)
Meridian (8-3) continues its underdog run into the 5A semifinals, a stage it hasn’t reached since 2007. And staring across the field is the program the Warriors want to become.
Like Meridian, Rigby (9-1) stood as a long-struggling program and an afterthought at the state level. But the Trojans won a state championship banner in 2019 seemingly out of nowhere, finished second last year, and spent 10 of 11 weeks as the state’s No. 1-ranked team this season.
Consider Rigby the blue blood and the favorite. Its pedigree easily outweighs Meridian’s. And the Trojans field two of the state’s top college-level prospects in three-star quarterback Tiger Adolpho (Weber State commit) and three-star defensive lineman Talin Togiai (BYU commit).
But the underdog role fits Meridian well. The Warriors may have three tallies in the loss column, but those came by a combined five points. A play here or there and the Warriors could be undefeated. And Meridian avenged one of those losses with a 35-6 throttling of No. 1 and undefeated Mountain View last week.
Turnovers stand as the great equalizer. Meridian leads the state in turnovers forced (29) and turnover margin (+24), a key reason it also fields the state’s top defense (10.6 ppg). Teams win state championships every year on lesser numbers.
And while injuries wear on any team late in the season, Meridian is getting stronger with the return of quarterback Malakai Martinez and receiver Davis Thacker, a four-year starter.
Rigby’s only loss this year came at rival Madison (31-28) three weeks ago. Meridian dispatched Madison 47-28 the next week.
Prediction: Meridian 21, Rigby 17
HIGHLAND AT EAGLE
Kickoff: 7 p.m. Friday
Broadcast: NFHS Network, IdahoSports.com (audio)
The Rams and Mustangs enter with similar resumes. Both are 9-2. Both are coming off surprising road wins last week. And both rely on a dual-threat quarterback.
Highland senior Jack Whitmer headlines the Rams’ offense, racking up 2,691 total yards and 27 TDs while leading the team in rushing yards (842).
His counterpart, Eagle senior Jack Benson, has 2,528 total yards and 24 TDs. But the Mustangs count on him as more of a facilitator than a one-man show. As he grew comfortable in that role, the Mustangs took off and won seven straight.
Roy Hull continues to show Eagle has a bounty of talent in the backfield. The third option to start the year ran for 97 yards and two TDs in last week’s 23-14 win at Coeur d’Alene. But Eagle also has an embarrassment of riches for Benson to target as receivers. Junior Ian Duarte stands as a touchdown threat every time he touches the ball, and the senior tight end can go up and get nearly any ball over the middle with his frame (6-4, 205).
It’s scary to think how potent Eagle would be if fully healthy. But even this “reduced” lineup is a dangerous one, and one with home-field advantage — whatever that’s worth in this wild postseason.
Prediction: Eagle 28, Highland 24
WEISER AT GOODING
Kickoff: 7 p.m. Friday
Broadcast: IdahoSports.com
Two of the state’s top college prospects square off in this 3A semifinal.
In one corner is Weiser (10-1) senior Brett Spencer, a three-star quarterback with an offer from Idaho. The 6-foot, 185-pound signal caller spearheads 3A’s top offense (41.9 ppg), has racked up 2,536 total yards and 30 TDs, and has the Wolverines on the precipice of their first trip to the state finals since 2005.
He’s efficient inside the pocket. He’ll lower his shoulder and plow over defenders. But he’s at his most dangerous outside the pocket, where he leaves defenders shaking their heads with his lightning-quick feet and big arm.
But Gooding (9-0) counters with one of the state’s most heralded recruits in years. Four-star tight end Colston Loveland committed to Michigan in July, picking the Wolverines among a sea of offers that included Alabama, Auburn and LSU.
But he’s not merely a tight end. The Senators move him all around the field to find mismatches, which isn’t hard with his frame (6-5, 230). They’ll turn around and hand it off to him, allowing him to rack up 1,207 total yards and 18 TDs. And he’s a nightmare at defensive end, too (6.3 tackles per game, 18 tackles for loss, 5.5 sacks.)
Neither Spencer nor Loveland would be playing for a spot in a state championship without a host of supporting players. But all eyes will turn to those two Friday.
Prediction: Gooding 33, Weiser 29
SUGAR-SALEM AT HOMEDALE
Kickoff: 1 p.m. Saturday
Broadcast: NFHS Network, IdahoSports.com (audio)
The rematch is on. It just comes a round earlier this year.
Sugar-Salem (7-2) topped Homedale (10-0) in the 3A state championship game each of the past three years, including a 34-28 win in overtime last year after trailing 20-0 early. But the Trojans get a shot at revenge this year in the semifinals, on their home turf and as the clear favorite.
No. 1-ranked Homedale returns 17 starters from last year’s runner-up, including reigning 3A All-Idaho Player of the Year Hayden Kincheloe. The senior running back missed two games this season but continues to dominate, entering the week with 1,547 rushing yards, 22 TDs and an average of 9.6 yards per carry.
The cast around him is even stronger this year. Junior quarterback Jaxon Dines (1,737 total yards, 21 TDs) continues to grow and prevents defenses from stacking the box. A bounty of receivers gives Dines plenty of options. And the Trojans field 3A’s toughest defense, at 8.2 points per game.
But write off the three-time defending state champ at your own risk. Many around the state did after the Diggers opened the season with back-to-back losses. But those losses came to Morgan, Utah — which plays for a state title this week — and 4A quarterfinalist Shelley.
Sugar-Salem has won seven in a row. And the formula that hung three straight title banners hasn’t changed much. The Diggers rely on a strong Wing-T running game led by Carson Harris (730 yards, 11 TDs) and an opportunistic passing game headed by Daniel Neal (1,399 pass yards, seven TDs).
Prediction: Homedale 28, Sugar-Salem 24
This story was originally published November 10, 2021 at 6:45 PM.
