Take it to the bank. Here’s who will win every girls basketball state championship
The high school girls basketball state tournaments return to the Treasure Valley this week, with the first round tipping off Thursday and champions earning their crowns Saturday at Nampa’s Ford Idaho Center.
And what’s a tournament without predictions?
So I dug through all 48 teams in six classifications to handicap the race for state.
CLASS 5A
THE FAVORITE: Riding a 16-game winning streak, Mountain View (21-2) enters as the front-runner for the second year in a row.
The No. 1-ranked Mavericks own the state’s top offense (57.7 ppg) and second-toughest defense (39.4 ppg). And they have the backcourt needed to make a deep tournament run, a group led by junior Trinity Slocum (13.6 ppg, 5.8 rebounds, 3.9 assists, 3.9 steals).
But Mountain View was also the clear favorite last year only to get upset in the state finals. And reigning first-team All-Idaho post Naya Ojukwu (1.4 ppg, 6.3 rebounds, 1.8 blocks) missed the last two games with a sprained ankle.
The Mavericks rallied without her to handle the dominant posts of Timberline. But Ojukwu’s long-term absence or limited athleticism will pose challenges against dominant posts like Boise’s Peyton McFarland in the first round.
THE CONTENDER: Timberline (21-3) is the only team in the state with two Division I signees in Ava Ranson (Montana State) and Emma Ellinghouse (Santa Clara). And few teams can match the size the Wolves put on the floor.
The 6-3 Ellinghouse (9.7 ppg, 8.5 rebounds) combines with 6-2 sophomore Sophie Glancey (11.8 ppg, 6.3 rebounds) and 6-1 senior Katie Walsh. All that size allows Timberline to average a rebounding margin of plus-13.
Combine that with a dominant scorer in Ranson (18.0 ppg) and a championship-laden coach in Andy Jones (six titles), and Timberline has all the weapons to hang its first title banner since 2003.
THE DARK HORSE: Coeur d’Alene (18-4) returns to state for the first time since 2014. Vikings coach Nicole Symons has turned around the program behind a youth movement.
Coeur d’Alene won’t start any seniors. But it has plenty of experience with five juniors in their third season on the varsity team. How they handle their first state tournament experience will determine how far they go.
CLASS 4A
THE FAVORITE: Bonneville (24-0) posted an undefeated regular season last year only to go two-and-out at its district tournament. But the Bees mounted another undefeated campaign in dominating fashion, winning every game by an average margin of 21.1 points.
That includes three wins over 5A SIC teams in a holiday tournament. And only one opponent has kept the game within single digits.
Led by senior point guard Sadie Lott (16.7 ppg) and senior forward Makayla Sorensen, the state’s all-class volleyball player of the year, the Bees have the weapons to make a run in any classification.
THE CONTENDER: Speaking of undefeated, Century (19-3) returns as 4A’s reigning undefeated state champ.
Century hasn’t lost to an Idaho team since the 2018 state championship game, instead seeking competition outside the state’s boundaries. The Diamondbacks’ only losses this season came in the top division at the elite Tarkanian Classic in Las Vegas.
Century has the experience (three titles in five years) and one of the state’s top players (Wyoming signee Lexi Bull) to take offense to any second-tier status.
THE DARK HORSE: Bonneville and Century have drawn the headlines all season long. But Caldwell (21-3), the defending state runner-up, lurks ready to make another run to the Idaho Center.
The Cougars return three starters from last year’s run. Their lockdown defense remains a threat night in and night out. And after winning 18 of the last 19 games, and the first district title in program history, their confidence is sky high.
CLASS 3A
THE FAVORITE: Until someone dethrones the two-time defending state champion, Sugar-Salem (21-1) remains the team to beat.
The Diggers haven’t lost to a 3A team since the 2017 state championship. And they’ve split with 2A powerhouse Soda Springs, snapping the Cardinals’ 54-game winning streak in November.
The formula remains the same — suffocate opponents into submission. Sugar-Salem’s defense tops 3A by allowing just 32.9 ppg, and Diggers coach Crystal Dayley told the Post Register this could be her best defensive team yet.
THE CONTENDER: The last 3A team to beat Sugar-Salem? Its first-round opponent, Timberlake (16-4).
Unfortunately, Idaho’s predetermined bracket pits the state’s two perennial powers against each other in the first round. But the Tigers have the lock-down defense (35.0 ppg), firepower and big-game experience to give Sugar-Salem all it can handle.
THE DARK HORSE: Parma (19-2), the state’s second-ranked team and defending state runner-up, looms on the same side of the bracket as Sugar-Salem and Timberlake.
The Panthers field 3A’s top offense at 58.9 ppg with Adyson Harris (15.8 ppg, 8.1 rebounds) leading the way. They have inched closer to the first title in program history each year. But their toughest test may come in the semifinal round.
CLASS 2A
THE FAVORITE: Don’t let classification fool you. Soda Springs (22-2) stands as one of Idaho’s top teams regardless of size.
The two-time defending state champion enters the tournament with wins over state qualifiers at the 4A and 3A level. It even routed 5A Highland by 31 points.
And with two-time, first-team All-Idaho guard Sadie Grinning back for another run, the Cardinals are the lock of the week to hang another banner.
THE CONTENDER: Height remains a rare commodity at the 2A level. But Cole Valley Christian (19-4) has it in spades with eight players standing 5-10 or taller.
The Chargers have used all that size to field 2A’s top defense (31.6 ppg), score a 15-point win over a 5A opponent (Centennial) and reach the state tournament for the sixth straight year.
THE DARK HORSE: Defending state runner-up Melba (19-3) can give Soda Springs a run for its money in staying power, posting an 89-9 record in the last four seasons.
Most expected a fall after big-name graduation losses. But Melba is back at state, and it brings 2A’s top offense (59.6 ppg) and the dominant Clark sisters (Kate and Kendall) with it as the Mustangs search for that elusive first championship.
CLASS 1A DIVISION I
THE FAVORITE: Few programs can match the pedigree of Lapwai (22-1). And the unanimously No. 1-ranked Wildcats bring another loaded squad to state.
Lapwai leads all classifications with 64.5 points per game, winning 11 games by 30 or more points and seven by 50 or more points. Glory and Grace Sobotta lead the way, and Lapwai’s only loss this season came to 5A state qualifier Post Falls.
THE CONTENDER: The only team to keep it somewhat close against Lapwai is district rival Prairie (17-4). Three of its four losses came to Lapwai, but the second-ranked Pirates could get another shot in the state finals.
THE DARK HORSE: No current 1A Division I Western Idaho Conference team has won a first-round state tournament game since 2012. But No. 3 Rimrock (23-1) stands poised to break that streak and make some noise with the top defense in any classification at 27.6 ppg.
CLASS 1A DIVISION II
THE FAVORITE: An upset kept Carey (18-2) from a district championship. But the defending state champ and the No. 1-ranked team the majority of the season still has the experience and explosive weapons (like Kylie Wood, who scored 40 points in a game in January) to defend its title.
THE CONTENDER: Tri-Valley (18-2) emerged from the always tough Long Pin Conference with the classification’s top defense (28.6 ppg). It can hold opponents scoreless for long stretches, a skill that comes in handy at tournament time.
THE DARK HORSE: Lighthouse Christian (19-3) may not have the pedigree or experience, last making it to state in 2014. But its upset of Carey for the district championship shows it can play with anyone.
