Early loss, early bye, early playoff peek: Boise State has to play catch-up
AI-generated summary reviewed by our newsroom.
- Boise State faces uphill climb after early loss to ranked South Florida team.
- UNLV, led by new coach Dan Mullen, emerges as top challenger in Mountain West.
- AAC powers like South Florida and Tulane threaten Group of Five playoff spot.
For the second straight season, Boise State has a 1-1 record.
Last year, there was cause for excitement regardless. Not only did the Broncos have all-world running back and eventual Heisman Trophy runner-up Ashton Jeanty in the backfield, but the loss had come on the road to then-No. 7 Oregon on a last-second field goal — in a game where BSU actually outplayed the Ducks in many aspects.
So despite the loss, Boise State had announced that it was a front-runner to be the Group of Five representative — out of the Mountain West, Sun Belt, American Athletic, Mid-American and Conference USA — in the expanded 12-team College Football Playoff.
Things are a little different this year.
There’s no Jeanty to carry the Broncos across the line, sure, but a season-opening 34-7 loss to South Florida put the team in catch-up mode. The Bulls, for one thing, are now No. 18 in The Associated Press Top 25 and could stage their own run to make the field. Even if they don’t, they are an AAC team that thoroughly beat a Mountain West squad, something that could make a difference to the CFP committee when comparing those league champs for the one spot the non-power conferences get.
Boise State beat Eastern Washington 51-14 last Friday, but a win over an FCS opponent doesn’t move the needle, no matter how impressive. With a lot of football left, including a tough game at Notre Dame in early October, there’s still time for BSU to reappear atop the playoff picture, but this time the Broncos are chasing.
Here’s the landscape among the Group of Five entering only week 3 of the season, which will see Boise State watching from home during its first bye week.
Good news, the Mountain West probably ain’t great
Forgive that English, but similar to last year, it’s likely the Broncos will have just one serious competitor in the Mountain West: UNLV.
The conference doesn’t have too much to hang its hat on through two weeks. Three teams have not lost yet, but one of those, Air Force, has played only one game. Wyoming has won twice — against Akron and FCS Northern Iowa.
UNLV, which Boise State has defeated in the past two conference championship games, is 3-0 and improving. The Rebels looked shaky in their opener, giving up 555 yards of offense in a 38-31 win over FCS opponent Idaho State. Since then, UNLV has defeated Sam Houston 38-21 and enjoyed a 30-23 upset win over the Big Ten’s UCLA.
Although there were plenty of questions around the Rebels — a new coach is in place, Dan Mullen, and there’s a starting lineup composed mainly of transfers — they’ve answered the call so far.
There doesn’t seem to be an immediate threat from elsewhere in the conference, but there have been a few games indicative of what the future Pac-12 could look like. The two leftovers, Washington State and Oregon State, have both looked shaky through two games.
Oregon State has started 0-2, including a 36-27 loss to future Pac-12 foe Fresno State and a 34-15 loss to Cal. Washington State is 2-0 moving on from quarterback John Mateer, who transferred to Oklahoma, but those wins were 13-10 over FCS opponent Idaho and 36-13 over a San Diego State team picked to finish eighth in the MW. The Aztecs also will join the Pac-12 in 2026.
Fresno State, which lost 31-7 to Kansas to open the season, visits Albertsons Stadium on Nov. 1, two weeks after UNLV plays on the blue turf. Those stand out as the league games that could determine the Mountain West regular season champion, and that team will get to host the title game.
Conference games against any foe on the road are seldom a cakewalk, so it’s to Boise State’s benefit that those two teams have to visit here.
What does the rest of the field look like?
South Florida has started off really well, with the win over the Broncos and an 18-16 upset of then-No. 13 Florida on Saturday. The Bulls’ defense is giving up 11.5 points per game, and QB Byrum Brown has one passing and two rushing TDs through two games, with no turnovers, and he has accounted for over 580 yards of offense.
HERO Sports and Group of Five Guys, outlets dedicated to covering the G5 leagues, both have South Florida ranked No. 1 in their Group of Five media rankings. The Bulls, who were picked to finish fifth in the AAC, next face No. 5 Miami on Saturday, so even a loss there would not be detrimental. A win obviously would be enormous.
Elsewhere, there aren’t really any earth-shattering results. Tulane, also of the AAC, looks to build off a 9-5 season and has started the year 2-0, including a 23-3 win over the Big Ten’s Northwestern. Memphis, 11-2 in 2024, has also started undefeated, but those wins are over Chattanooga and Georgia State. Navy, 10-3 last season, is 2-0, including a 38-24 win over UAB.
The AAC’s Army, which was in the playoff picture last year during a 12-2 season, could be back in the picture by the end of 2025, but the Black Knights are off to a weird start. They defeated Kansas State 24-21 last weekend — after a puzzling 30-27 loss in the season opener to FCS school Tarleton State.
The good news for the Broncos and UNLV is that South Florida, Tulane, Memphis, Navy and Army all will take each other down as they play AAC games. Unless one of them emerges largely unscathed, the winner of the Mountain West could be right at the top of the Group of Five pecking order.
This story was originally published September 10, 2025 at 1:27 PM.
