Predictions, keys to victory, betting line for Boise State vs. North Texas in Frisco Bowl
The Boise State football team is no stranger to bowl games.
The Broncos played in 18 straight bowl games before their streak was snapped in 2020. They’ve been eligible for a bowl 25 years in a row, which is the third-longest active streak in the country. Ohio State (34 years) and Georgia (26) are the only programs with longer streaks.
Winning a bowl game is foreign to many of the players in Boise State’s locker room, though. Only a handful of them were even on the roster in 2017 when the Broncos beat Oregon, 38-28, in the Las Vegas Bowl. They haven’t won a bowl game since.
In 2018, the First Responder Bowl was declared a no contest after it was stopped in the first quarter because of a severe thunderstorm. The 2019 Las Vegas Bowl ended with the Broncos falling 38-7 to Washington in what was former Boise State coach Chris Petersen’s final game with the Huskies.
The Broncos haven’t gone to a bowl game the past two years because of COVID-19. The players voted to skip the postseason following a shortened 2020 season. Boise State accepted an invitation to the Arizona Bowl last year, but it was forced to pull out after a spike in positive cases.
Ending the year with a loss isn’t easy to get over, Boise State linebacker DJ Schramm said.
“It stings a lot because you have that taste in your mouth for eight months or whatever it is before you start playing again,” Schramm said.
Boise State (9-4) needs a win over North Texas (7-6) in the Frisco Bowl on Saturday (7:15 p.m., ESPN) to catapult itself into next season, head coach Andy Avalos said.
“It’s an opportunity to finish strong,” Avalos said. “How we finish this season is everything.”
Keys to victory
Make North Texas one-dimensional: Boise State’s defense is facing a pick-your-poison situation against North Texas. The Mean Green average 201.7 rushing yards a game while splitting carries among three dangerous running backs. Quarterback Austin Aune has thrown for 3,309 yards and 32 touchdowns, and he has plenty of receivers to choose from, including 5-foot-9, 200-pound junior Roderick Burns, who leads the team with 37 catches for 650 yards.
Boise State got to this point on the back of a run defense that smothered teams for most of the season. The Broncos are giving up 120.8 rushing yards a game, which ranks No. 2 in the Mountain West. But that suffocating run defense looked rather pedestrian at times in the latter half of the season, especially when it gave up 278 yards on the ground at Wyoming. Boise State is going to have to find a way to shut North Texas’ backfield down if it’s going to leave Frisco, Texas, with a win.
Lean on what got you here: Sticking with the theme of dancing with the girl you came with, Boise State has to commit to its running game. The Broncos did not do that in a 28-16 loss to Fresno State in the Mountain West championship game even though they racked up 316 rushing yards in a regular-season win over the Bulldogs. Boise State averaged 5.3 yards a carry in the first half of the title game, but quarterback Taylen Green ended up throwing a career-high 38 passes, even though it was a one-possession game until early in the fourth quarter.
The Broncos have their own three-headed monster in the backfield: Green and running backs George Holani and Ashton Jeanty. Boise State rushed for more than 300 yards in back-to-back wins over San Diego State and Fresno State earlier this season, and the Broncos have rushed for at least 200 yards in four of their past six games.
Holani is having a career year. His 1,133 rushing yards are the most he’s posted in a season since finishing with 1,014 as a freshman in 2019. He’s a next-level talent who may be taking the field for the final time in his college career Saturday. Jeanty (643 yards, 6 TDs) and Green (467 yards, 8 TDs) are the future of the backfield. The Broncos need to lean on the running game Saturday and then capitalize on what that opens up in the passing game.
Finish drives with touchdowns: Boise State kicker Jonah Dalmas is having another solid year. He’s 21-of-25 on field goals and needs to make just six more to break the Broncos’ single-season record, which he set last year. But the Broncos don’t need Dalmas to show off his leg on Saturday. They need to keep him on the sideline as much as possible. The way they do that is by finishing drives with touchdowns, not field goals.
Struggling to finish drives with seven points has been a reoccurring theme for the Broncos this year. Dalmas has attempted at least three field goals in a game six times this season, and he went 4-for-4 in back-to-back wins over Fresno State and Air Force. That’s fine when the defense shuts down opponents on a weekly basis. Not so much when it struggles.
Boise State needs to make every possession count in the Frisco Bowl, especially early in the game. A two-possession lead in the second half will help eliminate some of the threat posed by the Mean Green’s rushing attack.
Key matchups
Boise State LB DJ Schramm vs. North Texas RB Ikaika Ragsdale: Schramm’s story is what sports are all about. He overcame injuries and bided his time behind a lot of veterans and finally earned a starting role as a fifth-year senior. And he’s been the most valuable player on the Broncos’ defense this fall. Schramm leads the team with 99 tackles and 11.5 tackles for loss. He posted double-digit tackles in five games this season, including a career-high 16 in a loss at UTEP and 15 in the regular-season finale against Utah State.
Ragsdale leads a crowded backfield. The 6-foot, 216-pound sophomore was named honorable mention All-Conference USA by Pro Football Focus last season. He leads North Texas with 121 carries this season, and his five rushing touchdowns are tied for most on the team. He’s No. 2 on the team with 661 rushing yards. Ayo Adeyi leads the Mean Green with 740 rushing yards, and Oscar Adaway III has added 583 yards and five touchdowns.
Boise State S JL Skinner vs North Texas WR Jyaire Shorter: Skinner had a relatively quiet season compared to the gaudy numbers he put up last year, but the senior stepped up in critical moments late in the season. He snagged two of his team-high four interceptions in the fourth quarter of Boise State’s 20-17 win at Wyoming on Nov. 19. Skinner also ranks No. 2 on the team with 65 tackles. He’s the most likely player on the Broncos’ roster to hear his name called in the 2023 NFL Draft, which means the Frisco Bowl will probably be the final game of his college career.
Shorter missed most of last season with an injury, but he leads the Mean Green and is tied for No. 2 in Conference USA with 10 receiving touchdowns this year. The 6-2, 218-pound junior ranks No. 5 on the team with 22 catches for 598 yards. He’s a proven deep threat, averaging more than 27 yards a catch, and North Texas is not shy about taking shots downfield. Skinner and his fellow safeties are going to have to help the cornerbacks keep him in check.
Predictions
Boise State is a 10.5-point favorite, according to Las Vegas, and the over/under is 59 points. The all-time series between the Broncos and North Texas is tied, 3-3. The former Big West Conference rivals last met in 2000, and Boise State cruised to a 59-0 win at Albertsons Stadium.
Boise State hasn’t played in a bowl game since 2019. The Broncos are 12-7-1 in bowls since 1999.
North Texas is playing in its third straight bowl game, and the Mean Green have played in five since 2016. The only season they missed a bowl under former coach Seth Littrell was 2019. North Texas fired Littrell following the Mean Green’s loss to UTSA in the Conference USA championship game.
The Mean Green are 2-8 in bowl games since 2001, and they’ve lost five in a row.
My pick (9-4 straight up, 8-5 ATS): To put it bluntly, Boise State was outplayed and out-coached in the Mountain West championship game. The offense looked unstoppable at times this season, but in the title game, the Broncos neglected the very thing that got them there — the running game. Offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter out-smarted himself with his pass-heavy game plan in the title game, and I don’t think that’s a mistake he’ll make again. North Texas has some studs on offense, and it’s going to score some points, but Boise State gets back to its bread and butter and chews the Mean Green up on the ground. Final score: Boise State 31, North Texas 17
Betting expert Lee Sterling of Paramount Sports, who appears weekly on KTIK (8-4 straight up, 5-7 ATS): Seth Littrell every single bowl season used to go out and apply for all kinds of jobs. It was no secret among the head coaching ranks, and he wasn’t able to get anything. Well, he gets to the Conference USA championship game, loses it and they ax him. Who’s left behind? Phil Bennett, age 67. He was brought out of retirement to be the defensive coordinator. This staff is all looking for jobs. They’re not excited, even though it’s a 40-minute drive from campus for this game. Meanwhile, Boise State has 13 players from the area, which it heavily recruits, playing in this game, including their quarterback, and a couple key players on offense and defense. I just think the Broncos’ run defense is going to be able to shut down and slow down this North Texas running attack. Aune just has not had success throwing the football. Blowout special. Boise State win big here. Final score: Boise State 53, North Texas 24.
FRISCO BOWL: BOISE STATE VS. NORTH TEXAS
When: Dec. 17, 7:15 p.m. MT
Where: Toyota Stadium, Frisco, Texas
TV: ESPN (Dave Neal, Deuce McAllister, Andraya Carter)
Records: Boise State 9-4, 8-0 MW; North Texas 7-6, 6-2 C-USA
Series: Boise State is 3-3 all-time against North Texas, but the programs haven’t played since 2000.
Vegas line: Boise State by 10.5
Weather: High of 50 degrees, 12% chance of rain, 7 mph wind
This story was originally published December 15, 2022 at 4:00 AM.
