Predictions, keys to victory, betting line for Boise State’s rivalry game vs. BYU
Boise State’s rivalry series with BYU dates back to 2003, and it has included plenty of memorable moments.
One the Broncos would like to forget is BYU’s last trip to Albertsons Stadium.
It was 2020, which meant both teams were missing players because of COVID-19, and there were only about 1,100 spectators in the stadium because of restrictions on the size of crowds.
Boise State was missing former starting quarterback Hank Bachmeier, who had tested positive for the virus the week before, and running back George Holani and pass rusher Demitri Washington — both of whom suffered season-ending injuries the previous week against Air Force.
Things went from bad to worse on the Broncos’ first series when backup quarterback Jack Sears went down with a concussion. That left freshmen Cade Fennegan and Andy Peters, both of whom joined the team as walk-ons, to take the snaps for the rest of the game.
The result wasn’t pretty. BYU rolled to a 51-17 win. It was the most points the Broncos had surrendered in the series and the first time the Cougars beat Boise State at Albertsons Stadium. It also snapped the Broncos’ three-game winning streak in the series.
A repeat performance Saturday (5 p.m., FS2) on The Blue is not how the Broncos — who got a big victory at BYU last season — want the final chapter of this series to end.
The rivals don’t have any future games scheduled. The Cougars will join the Big 12 next season, and they’ve been adjusting their nonconference schedule accordingly.
The Broncos want the lasting image of the rivalry to be of them making their traditional victory lap around the stadium, high-fiving their faithful fans after a win.
“It’s always exciting for us when Bronco Nation gets to come out and see that game,” Holani said. “It’s always a big game, and we look forward to playing these guys.”
Interestingly enough, all four Boise State quarterbacks from that 2020 game are gone.
Fennegan left in July 2021 — and landed at BYU. Sears entered the portal in December 2021 and has yet to sign with another team, and Bachmeier left following the Broncos’ loss to 15-point underdog UTEP on Sept. 23.
Peters transferred in April and joined the team at The College of Idaho, where he leads the NAIA program with 1,349 passing yards and 10 touchdowns. The Yotes are 7-1 this season, and they travel to Eastern Oregon on Saturday.
Keys to victory
Make Hall uncomfortable: BYU’s Jaren Hall is the best quarterback Boise State has faced this season. Head coach Andy Avalos, defensive coordinator Spencer Danielson and even safety JL Skinner said as much in interviews this week. Hall has an NFL-caliber arm, and he’s athletic enough to get out of the pocket to find open receivers. The 6-foot-1, 205-pound junior has thrown for 2,245 yards, 21 touchdowns and just three interceptions this season.
He also has some weapons at his disposal, so what Boise State can’t afford to do Saturday is let him get comfortable in the pocket and pick the defense apart.
The Broncos’ pass rushers have to get in Hall’s face and force him to make quick decisions. The less time he has to react, the more likely he is to make a mistake. Boise State’s 21 sacks rank No. 2 in the Mountain West, trailing only Wyoming, which has 26. The Broncos could use a few more on Saturday.
Make BYU one-dimensional: Those sacks will be easier to come by if Hall has to drop back and throw the ball 40 times. The Broncos can make that happen if they shut down the running game. The Cougars average 150 rushing yards per game, but they haven’t found a replacement for workhorse running back Tyler Allgeier, who is in the NFL with the Atlanta Falcons.
BYU’s leading rusher, Cal transfer Chris Brooks, missed last week’s game against East Carolina with a hamstring injury. Whether or not he plays on Saturday will be a game-time decision, BYU coach Kalani Sitake said earlier this week.
If Brooks doesn’t play, BYU will turn to senior Lopini Katoa, who posted a season-high 116 yards and a touchdown on the ground against ECU. Whoever carries the ball for the Cougars is going to have their work cut out for them against Boise State’s defense. The Broncos are giving up just 98.6 rushing yards a game, which leads the Mountain West and ranks No. 13 in the country.
Keep slinging it around: Boise State quarterback Taylen Green has proved the past two weeks that he’s more than a running quarterback. He’s a quarterback who can run. The redshirt freshman posted a career-high 227 passing yards two weeks ago against Air Force, and he broke that mark with 305 last week against Colorado State. Green completed passes to nine different receivers last week, including two that went for touchdowns.
Green’s freakish athleticism adds another dimension to the offense, but the Broncos are unstoppable when that’s combined with what Holani and freshman running back Ashton Jeanty bring to the table, and a productive passing attack.
Boise State’s coaches can’t afford to ignore how much of a threat Green is when he runs the ball. His awe-inspiring 10-yard touchdown run last week is proof of that, but the Broncos need to keep airing the ball out, too. The more game reps Green gets in the pocket, the more confident and comfortable he’ll be in the long run.
Key matchups
Boise State N Tyreque Jones vs. BYU WR Puka Nacua: Nacua may be the most dynamic player on BYU’s offense. The 6-2, 205-pound junior has missed three games with injuries, but he’s third on the team with 382 receiving yards and three touchdowns. He has also carried the ball 18 times for 156 yards and four touchdowns.
The Cougars are going to get Nacua the ball on Saturday, even with jet sweeps and maybe even a little wildcat quarterback. Who better to cover BYU’s most explosive player than one of Boise State’s most versatile defenders?
Jones is an ideal fit at nickel because he can defend the run, rush the passer and drop back in coverage with ease, Danielson has said. He’s also one of the Broncos’ top defensive backs in man-to-man coverage, according to Avalos. Jones is one of the Broncos’ surest tacklers, and the sixth-year senior is going to have to rely on every bit of his experience to slow Nacua.
Boise State Edge Demitri Washington vs. BYU RT Kingsley Suamataia: Washington is tied with linebacker Ezekiel Noa with a team-high 4.5 sacks. Washington got to the quarterback twice in Boise State’s win at Air Force two weeks ago. With fellow pass rushers George Tarlas (injury) and Isaiah Bagnah (transfer) out of the picture, the Broncos are going to need another big performance out of him. That is going to be easier said than done, though. BYU has given up just 11 sacks this fall — the 9th fewest of any team in the country.
Predictions
Boise State is 8-4 overall and 5-1 at Albertsons Stadium in its all-time series with BYU. The Broncos went to Provo, Utah, and knocked off the then-No. 10 Cougars last season, snapping BYU’s two-game winning streak in the series.
The Broncos are 8-point favorites, according to Las Vegas, and the over/under is 54.5 points. Boise State is 16-4 in its past 20 regular-season games as a favorite at home and 13-7 against the spread. BYU is 7-13 in its past 20 regular-season games as an underdog on the road and 13-7 ATS.
My pick (6-2 straight up, 6-2 ATS): If we’ve learned one thing about the rivalry between Boise State and BYU, it’s that the games are unpredictable. Five of them have been decided by three points or less, and two were decided by one point. There have been game-clinching pick sixes, blocked field goals and goal line stands. The favorite isn’t always safe. Just look at lest season, when there weren’t many people who expected the Broncos to go into Provo, Utah, and win.
But Boise State has two things going for it: a dominant defense and a multifaceted running game that has looked unstoppable in recent weeks. BYU QB Jaren Hall is going to have to put the team on his back Saturday if the Cougars are going to find a way to win. Final score: Boise State 28, BYU 17
Betting expert Lee Sterling of Paramount Sports, who appears weekly on KTIK (4-3 straight up, 2-5 ATS): I just think that this is a great setup for Boise State. This BYU team, they can’t tackle on defense. They’re slow to process what they see. When you’re slow to process and can’t make tackles, it spells trouble. I think this Boise State team is a different team right now. If they played early in the year, look out, but since the change, I think they’re going to run all over BYU. This team has looked horrific. They’re 4-5 straight up. I think this team is a fraud and I think Boise State is going to lay it on them. Final score: Boise State 38, BYU 23
BYU AT BOISE STATE
When: 5 p.m. Saturday
Where: Albertsons Stadium
TV: FS2 (Dan Hellie, Petro Papadakis)
Radio: KBOI 670 AM/93.1 FM (Bob Behler, Pete Cavender)
Records: Boise State 6-2, 5-0 MW; BYU 4-5
Series: Boise State is 8-4 in its all-time series with BYU, which dates back to 2003. The rivals have played one another every season since 2012.
Vegas line: Boise State by 8
Weather: High of 49 degrees, 78% chance of rain, 10 mph wind
This story was originally published November 3, 2022 at 2:59 PM.
