Predictions, keys to victory, betting line for Boise State’s game at Air Force
The Boise State football team should be plenty motivated for a Mountain West game Saturday at Air Force (5 p.m., CBSSN).
Revenge will be a factor.
Air Force went into Albertsons Stadium and beat the Broncos 24-17 last year. In 2020, the Broncos earned a win at Falcon Stadium, but it was costly. Running back George Holani and pass rusher Demitri Washington were both lost for the year to injures.
The chance to all but guarantee a shot at the Mountain West championship with a win should be another big motivating factor for the Broncos.
Boise State (4-2, 3-0 MW) is the last remaining undefeated team in conference play. After Air Force (5-2, 2-2), the rest of the Broncos’ schedule is full of winnable games: Colorado State (1-5, 1-1), Nevada (2-5, 0-3), Wyoming (4-3, 2-1) and Utah State (3-4, 2-1).
Boise State is in the driver’s seat to not only play for the Mountain West title, but host the championship game. A win on Saturday would be a giant step in that direction.
“Everything is right in front of us from a goal standpoint,” Boise State coach Andy Avalos said.
Keys to victory
Control the clock: Air Force specializes in hanging on to the ball because the Falcons are really good at picking up just enough yards on first and second down to face a lot of third-and-short situations. They average more than 36 minutes of possession time a game. The Falcons held the ball for more than 43 minutes in a 48-20 win over Nevada in September, and the Wolf Pack ran just 38 plays compared to Air Force’s 78.
Boise State’s defense has to find ways to make some tackles behind the line of scrimmage and get the Falcons off the field on third down. The coaches are going to have to be aggressive on blitzes and stunts on the defensive line, and they’re going to have to trust the secondary in one-on-one situations.
Don’t forget about the pass: Air Force’s rushing attack gets most of the headlines, and rightfully so. The Falcons lead the country with 359.8 rushing yards a game, but they’ve also been pretty efficient the few times they’ve gone to the air.
Air Force quarterback Haaziq Daniels has attempted only 49 passes in seven games, but he has an 80-yard completion and five touchdown passes to his credit. Most of Daniels’ TD passes have come on deep shots. He connected on a 67-yard scoring strike against Navy, and two other scoring passes covered at least 40 yards. Backup QB Ben Brittain threw an 80-yard touchdown pass against Nevada.
The Falcons are going to do their best to lull Boise State’s defenders to sleep with a lot of short runs on Saturday. It’s going to be hard for the Broncos’ defensive backs to avoid creeping toward the line of scrimmage, but they have to keep an eye on Air Force’s receivers and make a play when the ball is in the air.
Make a play on special teams: Much of Boise State’s reputation was built on impressive returns and momentum-seizing blocks from the special teams units. But the Broncos’ special teams haven’t been all that special this year.
Kicker Jonah Dalmas has been a bright spot. He’s 10-of-12 on field goals, and the former walk-on was named Mountain West Special Teams Player of the Week twice. But outside of a blocked punt from reserve linebacker Andrew Simpson and a 36-yard kickoff return from wide receiver Cole Wright, there hasn’t been much else to write home about this fall.
Boise State needs a win on Saturday to stay on track for a shot at the Mountain West title, and a spark from special teams will make a win much easier to secure. Whether it’s Holani taking a punt to the house or a well-timed block of a kick, the Broncos need to find that spark this weekend.
Key matchups
Boise State QB Taylen Green vs. Air Force LB TD Blackmon: Green stepped in as the Broncos’ starter three weeks ago after Hank Bachmeier opted to transfer following a loss to 15-point underdog UTEP. Green posted his second 100-yard rushing performance of the season in his starting debut against San Diego State, and the Broncos have totaled 632 rushing yards with the redshirt freshman taking the snaps in the past two games.
Green and the Broncos are going to face a stiff test on Saturday. Air Force has what may be the best group of linebackers Boise State has faced. It’s led by Blackmon, who leads the Falcons with three sacks and is third on the team with 37 tackles. Senior Vince Sanford, a preseason all-conference pick, is right behind him with 33 stops, and junior Alec Mock ranks No. 2 on the team with 40.
Mock’s status for Saturday’s game is in question after he suffered a hand injury against Utah State two weeks ago and didn’t play last week against UNLV. But his replacement, Jonathan Youngblood, led the team with six tackles and forced a fumble.
Boise State LB DJ Schramm vs. Air Force FB Brad Roberts: Roberts has been all but unstoppable this year. He leads the Mountain West and ranks No. 4 in the country with 853 rushing yards. The senior also tops the conference and is tied for No. 2 in the nation with 12 rushing touchdowns. Roberts is coming off one of his best performances of the season: He racked up 144 yards and a career-high four rushing TDs against UNLV last week.
Schramm is having a career year, too. The redshirt senior leads Boise State and ranks No. 9 in the conference with 49 tackles. He posted a career-high 16 stops in the Broncos’ loss at UTEP and finished with 11 in games against Oregon State and San Diego State.
Predictions
Boise State leads its all-time series against Air Force 6-4, and the Broncos are 14-1 in games following a bye week since joining the Mountain West in 2011. (Some seasons have had more than one bye.)
Air Force is a 2-point favorite, according to Vegas oddsmakers, and the over/under is only 47.5 points. The Broncos are 7-13 in their past 20 regular season games as an underdog on the road and 12-7-1 against the spread. The Falcons are 17-3 in their past 20 regular season games as a favorite at home and 13-7 ATS.
My pick (4-2 straight up, 4-2 ATS): Boise State is giving up the fewest rushing yards in the Mountain West, surrendering 101.8 a game. The Broncos aren’t facing your average rushing attack this week, though. Air Force specializes in chewing up yardage on the ground and dominating time of possession.
The Falcons are going to get their yards and might even hit a couple of long runs, but Boise State’s running game looked unstoppable against San Diego State and Fresno State, and I think that trend continues this week. The Broncos will have two players with more than 100 rushing yards for the third game in a row, and that will be just enough to lift them to a big win. Final score: Boise State 28, Air Force 24
Betting expert Lee Sterling of Paramount Sports, who appears weekly on KTIK (3-2 straight up, 2-3 ATS): I thought Air Force was a team that maybe had a chance to run the table. They’ve had some injuries, especially at the wide receiver position. They lost a kid a lot of people didn’t pay attention to, Micah Davis, in the offseason. ... Then they lost two of the guys that were going to replace them. They’re not real dynamic, but I love their running back. I mean, Brad Roberts is an absolute monster. One of the smaller fullbacks they’ve ever had, but maybe one of the most proficient running backs they’ve ever had at the fullback position. Both teams have not been tested. For Air Force, this is maybe the toughest team they’ve played. For Boise State, it maybe their first game against Oregon State. Alot of unknowns here. Maybe that running game gives Boise State a little problem. Tough game to predict, but I have Air Force winning this game and covering bye a small margin. Final score: Air Force 23, Boise State 20
BOISE STATE AT AIR FORCE
When: 5 p.m. Saturday
Where: Falcon Stadium (46,692), Air Force Academy, Colorado
TV: CBS Sports Network (Rich Waltz, Aaron Taylor, Sherree Burress)
Radio: KBOI 670 AM/93.1 FM (Bob Behler, Pete Cavender)
Records: Boise State 4-2, 3-0 MW; Air Force 5-2, 2-2 MW
Series: Boise State leads all-time series 6-4, but the Falcons beat the Broncos 24-17 at Albertsons Stadium last season.
Vegas line: Air Force by 2
Weather: High of 68 degrees, 0% chance of rain, 17 mph wind
This story was originally published October 20, 2022 at 1:45 PM.
