Keys to victory, betting line, predictions for Boise State’s game at Oregon State
The Boise State football team is 7-7 against teams from Power Five conferences since 2014, and the Broncos own five wins over Pac-12 teams during that span.
The Broncos beat Arizona in the 2014 Fiesta Bowl and Oregon in the 2017 Las Vegas Bowl. Boise State opened the 2015 season with a 16-13 win over Washington. It also knocked off Washington State and Oregon State in 2016.
Boise State will open this season Saturday at Oregon State (8:30 p.m. Mountain time, ESPN), but defensive tackle Scott Matlock said the Broncos are going to prepare the same way, no matter the opponent.
“It doesn’t really matter who we play, where we play or when we play,” Matlock told reporters on Wednesday. “We’re going to prepare like we’re playing for a national championship every week.”
Saturday’s game will be held in a construction zone as Oregon State is in the middle of a $161 million renovation to Reser Stadium. Luckily for Boise State, its sideline is on the west side of the field, where there will be no screaming fans.
Boise State head coach Andy Avalos knows how far a win over Oregon State can take his team, especially with the Broncos coming off one of their worst seasons in more than a decade. Boise State went 7-5 last season and lost three straight home games for the first time since 1996.
“I think the special thing about the first game is you get to play somebody else,” Avalos said. “Obviously, having a huge challenge like we do in the first week on the road, that puts a lot into it, but at the end of the day, it’s always about us.”
NOTES
▪ Oregon State head coach Jonathan Smith coached quarterbacks at Boise State under Chris Petersen in 2012-13. In 2014, he followed Petersen to Washington, where he was offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach, before taking over at Oregon State in 2017.
▪ Boise State is one of four teams nationally that has posted a winning record on the road in each of the past eight seasons, joining Alabama, Georgia and Ohio State. The Broncos went 4-2 away from home last season, including wins over then-No. 10 BYU, then-No. 25 Fresno State and Mountain West champion Utah State.
▪ Boise State safeties coach and co-defensive coordinator Kane Ioane said safeties Rodney Robinson and Seyi Oladipo will both play on Saturday. They’re replacing Tyreque Jones at field safety after he moved to nickel, and Ioane said they could switch as often as every series.
Keys to victory
Get Holani involved early and often: Boise State running back George Holani has posted seven 100-yard rushing games in his career, and the Broncos are 7-0 in those contests. Holani has been banged up the past two seasons, but he’s healthy this year and his chiseled frame suggests he’s in the best shape of his life. He has to be a huge part of Boise State’s game plan. Whether they’re handing him the ball or throwing it his way, the Broncos’ coaches need to make sure he gets at least 25 touches on Saturday.
Make Nolan play from the pocket: Oregon State quarterback Chance Nolan can make things happen with his legs as well as his arm, but he doesn’t specialize in standing tall in the pocket to find an open receiver. Boise State defenders have to play disciplined and set the edge to keep him from getting outside the pocket. They need to focus on keeping him between the tackles, where he’s the least comfortable.
Keep an eye on Colletto: Oregon State’s secret weapon is linebacker Jack Colletto, who also takes the field as a wildcat quarterback in goal line and short-yardage situations. The Beavers recruited Colletto as a quarterback, and his instincts as a runner make him almost automatic on third-and-two or less, Oregon State beat writer Nick Daschel said. Colletto may also line up at running back, h-back or wide receiver this year.
Key matchups
Boise State N Tyreque Jones vs. Nolan: A former safety, Jones replaced five-year starter Kekaula Kaniho at nickel this year, and he’s going to play huge role in Saturday’s season opener. Playing closer to the line of scrimmage, Jones will be able to use his size, instincts and aggression to pressure Nolan and help keep him in the pocket. Jones, who tied for No. 4 on the team with 52 tackles last season, will find himself matched up with both wide receivers and tight ends. Don’t be surprised to see Jones key on Nolan, especially if the Beavers’ quarterback has success running early in the game.
Boise State LB Ezekiel Noa vs. Oregon State RB Deshaun Fenwick: Fenwick is the bruiser in Oregon State’s three-headed monster of a backfield. Trey Lowe is the speedster, and talented freshman Damien Martinez is a wildcard. Fenwick is 6-foot-1 and 220 pounds, and he’d rather run through defenders than around them. That’s where Noa is going to have to meet him and come out on the winning side of those collisions. Noa (5-11, 240) is a five-year starter, and he finished third on the team last season with 66 tackles.
Predictions
Boise State has won six of its past seven season openers, and the Broncos led at halftime in last season’s loss at UCF. Oregon State and Boise State have played nine times, with the Beavers holding a 5-4 edge in the series.
Oregon State is a 2.5-point favorite on Saturday, according to Las Vegas, with an over/under of 57 points. The Beavers are 13-7 in their past 20 regular season games as a favorite at home and 9-11 against the spread. Boise State is 7-13 in its past 20 regular season games as an underdog on the road and 13-6-1 ATS.
My pick : Neither team can afford a loss on Saturday. Oregon State has Pac-12 championship game aspirations, and Boise State has a lot to prove after a disappointing 2021 season. Both teams have experienced quarterbacks and talent in the backfield, but I think Boise State’s defense is going to be the difference. The Broncos have experience at all three levels, the secondary is one of the best in the Mountain West and the coaches say they have more confidence than ever in their depth on the defensive line. I think JL Skinner lays a highlight-reel hit on somebody, the Broncos force a couple of turnovers and Boise State wins a close game. Final score: Boise State 27, Oregon State 20
Betting expert Lee Sterling of Paramount Sports, who appears weekly on KTIK : The Beavers, I believe, need to run to be successful. (They averaged) 5.3 yards per carry last year en route to what was, for them, a pretty good season, going 7-6. But they lost their star running back, BJ Baylor. ... I doubt that quarterback Chance Nolan can carry this team for (Oregon State). It’s time for Bachmeier ro step up and deliver, take this team and put it on his back. I think they give George Holani the ball 20-25 times and let him do his thing. Here’s something crazy. We used to always talk about the home edge the Broncos had. But the visiting team is 42-15 the past 56 games when the Broncos take the field. That can’t be ignored, and (Boise State) is 6-0 against te spread in openers. The Beaver are 0-6 in their first game of the season. Give me Boise State. Final score: Boise State 30, Oregon State 24
This story was originally published September 1, 2022 at 12:52 PM.
