Bowl projections: Boise State could end up facing an AAC team in a recruiting hotbed
The Boise State football team has qualified for a bowl game for the 24th straight season, but the Broncos’ destination likely won’t be announced until Sunday.
Boise State qualified for a bowl game last season, but the players voted to skip the postseason after a tumultuous year full of canceled games and COVID-19 problems. In 2019, the Broncos played in the Las Vegas Bowl in its final year as the destination for the Mountain West champion. They lost to former Boise State coach Chris Petersen in his final game at Washington before he retired.
This year, the conference champ will head to the new Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl. It will be No. 19 San Diego State or Utah State, which face off in the title game in Carson, California, on Saturday.
Bowl-eligible teams from the Mountain West are guaranteed spots in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl, New Mexico Bowl, Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl and Hawaii Bowl. The conference also has agreements to fill openings in the Frisco Bowl and Cheez-It Bowl.
Here’s where the Broncos likely will end up and how I see the Mountain West’s bowl bids shaking out.
Tropical Smoothie Cafe Frisco Bowl, Tuesday, Dec. 21, 5:30 p.m. Mountain time, Toyota Stadium, Frisco, Texas, ESPN
Boise State (7-5) vs SMU (8-4): After their loss to San Diego State last weekend, the Broncos really could end up anywhere from the Arizona Bowl to the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl, or in one of the many bowl games ESPN operates across the country. From a financial standpoint, maybe this is the year for Boise State to save a little money by staying home and playing in the Potato Bowl. But its national brand means BSU is going to have options. Why not pick a game against a team from the American Athletic Conference, which has pitted itself against the Mountain West as the top Group of Five conference in the country? As a bonus, the game is in Texas, which Boise State recruits heavily. A win over a program from Texas could carry a lot of weight for future recruits. It would also basically be a home game for SMU, which would only have to make a short trip from Dallas to Frisco, helping to ensure a good crowd.
Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl, Dec. 18, 5:30 p.m., SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles, California, ABC
San Diego State (11-1) vs. UCLA (8-4): The Mountain West champion is scheduled to face the No. 5 or 6 team in the Pac-12, which could be Washington State or Oregon State, but what better way to debut the LA Bowl than with hometown UCLA taking the field? The game was supposed to make its debut last year, but it was canceled because of COVID-19. San Diego State has the rushing attack and defense to compete with just about any team in the country. The Aztecs already have wins over Pac-12 programs Utah and Arizona this season, and UCLA has a loss to Fresno State on its resume.
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl, Dec. 21, 1:30 p.m., Albertsons Stadium, ESPN
Utah State (9-3) vs. Northern Illinois (8-4): With Utah State’s record, maybe it deserves to be in a higher-profile game. But the Aggies are going to find themselves between a rock and a hard place if they lose to the Aztecs. There really aren’t many great options for Mountain West teams beyond the LA Bowl. This has the potential to be a fun game between two high-scoring offenses, though. Utah State is averaging 32.2 points a game, and quarterback Logan Bonner is tied for No. 2 in the Mountain West with 32 touchdown passes. Northern Illinois is averaging 30.8 points a game, and the Huskies rank No. 2 in the MAC with 231.6 rushing yards a game.
Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl, Dec. 31, 2:30 p.m., Arizona Stadium, Tuscon, Arizona, Barstool stream
Fresno State (9-3) vs. Central Michigan (8-4): This is another case where it feels like the Mountain West team deserves a better game. The Bulldogs gave Oregon all it could handle, beat UCLA, San Diego State and Nevada, and earned a spot in the AP Top 25 at one point. But after not earning a spot in the championship game, Fresno State is in an even tougher position than Utah State. Central Michigan would be a tough test for the Bulldogs. The Chippewas are led by the top running back in the MAC — Lew Nichols III, who leads the country with 1,710 yards rushing yards and leads the MAC with 15 rushing TDs. The question for Fresno State is at quarterback, after Jake Haener announced on Tuesday that he’s transferring.
Easypost Hawaii Bowl, Dec. 24, 6 p.m., Clarence T.C. Ching Athletic Complex, ESPN
Nevada (8-4) vs. Memphis (6-6): Memphis accepted an invitation to the Hawaii Bowl on Monday. Hawaii is bowl-eligible with a 6-7 record, so there’s a chance the Rainbow Warriors will stay home and play the Tigers, but Nevada seems like a much better option. The Wolf Pack average 36.7 points a game, which leads the Mountain West and ranks No. 15 nationally. Quarterback Carson Strong ranks No. 6 in the country with 36 touchdown passes, and he could be a first-round pick in the NFL Draft. He’s also throwing to one of the top deep threats in the country. Nevada wide receiver Romeo Doubs is tied for No. 1 in the conference with 11 receiving touchdowns, and he leads the Wolf Pack with 80 catches and 1,109 yards. Memphis is averaging 435.8 yards a game, and the Tigers are led by wide receiver Calvin Austin III, who has posted 74 catches, 1,149 yards and 10 touchdowns this season.
New Mexico Bowl, Dec. 18, 12:15 p.m., University Stadium, Albuquerque, New Mexico, ESPN
Wyoming (6-6) vs. UTEP (7-5): In terms of style of play, it would be hard to find a better matchup this bowl season. Neither team throws the ball very much. Both rely on physical rushing attacks and stifling defense to win games, which is something both teams struggled to do late in the season. UTEP was 6-1 in early October — its only loss coming against Boise State — but the Miners lost four of their last five games, including a 42-25 setback against UAB in the regular-season finale. Similarly, Wyoming opened the season 4-0 but lost its first four Mountain West games. The Cowboys are led by running back Xazavian Valladay, who ranks No. 3 in the conference with 984 rushing yards. UTEP’s backfield is led by Ronald Awatt, who has 804 yards and five touchdowns on the ground.
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl, Dec. 22, TBD, Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, Texas, ESPN
Air Force (9-3) vs. UTSA (11-1): Air Force was in the race for a Mountain West title, but a loss to Utah State meant the Falcons lost the tiebreaker atop the Mountain Division standings. It was still a strong season for the service academy, though, and what better way to end the year than in the Armed Forces Bowl against what may be the surprise team of the year. UTSA was ranked in the AP Top 25 until a loss to North Texas in its regular-season finale, and the Roadrunners will face Western Kentucky in the Conference USA championship game on Friday. UTSA is averaging 36.9 points and 433.5 yards a game, and it’s led by running back Sincere McCormick, who has posted 1,275 yards and 12 touchdowns on the ground this season. Air Force leads the country with 342 rushing yards a game, and fullback Brad Roberts leads the Mountain West with 1,279 yards on the ground.
This story was originally published December 1, 2021 at 3:59 PM.
