Keys to victory, betting line, predictions for Boise State’s game at San Diego State
The Boise State football team kicked off the holiday season by serving Thanksgiving dinner to community members at the Cathedral of the Rockies in Boise on Wednesday.
The event has been a tradition for years, but it was canceled last year because of the COVID-19 pandemic. Even though they’re busy preparing for a big regular-season finale at No. 22 San Diego State on Friday (10 a.m., CBS), Boise State’s players were happy to take some time to give back.
“My freshman year, it was one of my favorite things we did,” Boise State tight end Riley Smith said. “Bringing the freshmen out here is a morale booster, and it’s awesome to give back to the community since they support us so much on the field.”
Most of the Broncos in attendance were freshmen and sophomores who got their first chance to serve their fans a meal, mingle with the many children in attendance and pose for pictures. Several even got on stage to lead a song.
Several veterans were in attendance, too, including quarterback Hank Bachmeier, who was busy dishing out heaping portions of mashed potatoes but took the time to sign a football for a young fan.
“I think it puts a lot into perspective that there’s more than football in life,” Bachmeier said. “It makes me grateful for where I’m from and to be able to give back any way I can.”
Boise State (7-4, 5-2 Mountain West) has an appetite this week to cap its regular season with a fifth straight victory and earn a fifth straight appearance in the league championship game, but it needs some help. The Broncos need to beat San Diego State (10-1, 6-1) in Carson, California, and have Air Force lose to UNLV later in the day Friday. If that happens, it will be a happy holiday all around for BSU.
Keys to victory
Win on third down: Third down is called the money down for a reason. If Boise State is going to keep its winning streak alive, it’s going to have to win on third down on both offense and defense. The Broncos move the chains well on third down, ranking No. 2 in the Mountain West at 44.8%. But they are facing the conference’s top third-down defense: San Diego State is allowing opponents to convert just 30.7% of the time. Defensively, Boise State has given up third-down conversions 39.5% of the time.
Reach deep in the bag of tricks: Boise State offensive coordinator Tim Plough said he held a few things back in the Broncos’ 37-0 win over New Mexico last weekend. This is the game to pull out every trick in the bag — not only because a win keeps conference hopes alive, but also because a loss likely drops the Broncos to a weaker bowl game. San Diego State’s 3-3-5 defense is deceptive, and the Aztecs are stout against the run, giving up just 77.5 yards a game. They’re also No. 3 in the conference with 32 sacks this season. Whether it’s reverses, old-school flea flickers or another pass to defensive tackle Scott Matlock, the Broncos need to catch San Diego State off-guard.
No turnovers: An improved running game has played a role in Boise State’s four-game winning streak since its bye week in mid-October, but so has the Broncos’ attention to cleaning up turnovers. BSU turned the ball over nine times (five interceptions, four fumbles) through the first seven games. The Broncos have coughed it up just twice in the past four — and one of those was an interception thrown by wide receiver Khalil Shakir on a trick play. Boise State’s trend of not turning the ball over must continue, because recovering from giveaways won’t be easy against a team in the Top 25 that is also playing for a league title shot.
Key matchups
Boise State LB Ezekiel Noa vs. San Diego State RB Greg Bell: Noa played one of his best games of the season against New Mexico last week, posting six tackles, three tackles for loss and a career-high two sacks. He’s going to have to be on his toes against one of the top running backs in the Mountain West. Bell ranks No. 4 in the conference with 907 rushing yards and leads the Aztecs with seven rushing touchdowns. He’s averaging 4.7 yards a carry and 17.6 carries a game.
Boise State’s offensive line vs. San Diego State’s defensive line: Boise State’s coaches said this week that San Diego State’s offensive and defensive lines will be the best the Broncos have faced this season. The Broncos head into the game with a rushing attack that has been revitalized since the bye week, averaging 190.7 yards a game, and a quarterback who has seen some of the best protection of his career in the past month. Boise State’s offensive line is going to have to find a way to continue that success against a defensive front led by end Cameron Thomas, who leads the conference with 18 tackles for loss. And the Broncos’ line might have to do so without center Jake Stetz, whose status remains unclear after he left last week’s game with a leg injury. Plough said Monday that he was hopeful to have Stetz on the field.
Predictions
San Diego State is the only team in the Mountain West that Boise State doesn’t have a winning record against. The Broncos and Aztecs have split six games in a series that dates back to 2011, and San Diego State won the most recent meeting, though that was in 2018 at Albertsons Stadium.
Even though San Diego State is ranked No. 22 in the AP poll, Boise State is a 2.5-point favorite, according to Las Vegas, with an over/under of 44.5 points. Boise State is 16-4 in its past 20 regular-season games as a favorite on the road and 11-8-1 against the spread. San Diego State is 8-12 in its past 20 regular-season games as an underdog at home and 12-8 ATS.
My pick (6-5 straight up, 6-5 ATS): This game truly could go either way, especially with the way Boise State has defended the run in recent weeks. The Broncos are giving up just 99.5 yards on the ground over their four-game winning streak. Boise State is going to face the best offensive and defensive lines it has seen all season, though. The coaches said as much this week, and that’s saying something after the Broncos tangled with Oklahoma State, now ranked No. 7, earlier this year.
Greg Bell is the real deal at running back for the Aztecs, but I’m not sure San Diego State’s offense is explosive enough to get back in the game if Boise State builds a lead. I think wide receiver Khalil Shakir ends the regular season with a couple more mind-boggling catches, running back George Holani cracks 100 yards for the fourth straight week and the Broncos win a close one to keep their title hopes alive. Final score: Boise State 21, San Diego State 17
THIS WEEK’S COVERAGE
Birthday surprise: Boise State tight end’s brother, who plays at UNC, comes to The Blue
After committing to ground game, Boise State is in the running for Mountain West title
Idaho ties in the NFL: Highland High grad inks contract extension worth up to $95M
Boise State adds JUCO defensive lineman to 2022 class; offensive lineman leaves team
BOISE STATE AT NO. 22 SAN DIEGO STATE
When: 10 a.m. Friday
Where: Dignity Health Sports Park (27,000, grass), Carson, California
TV: CBS (Rich Waltz, Aaron Taylor, Sherree Burruss)
Radio: KBOI 670 AM/KTIK 93.1 FM (Bob Behler, Pete Cavender)
Records: Boise State 7-4, 5-2 MW; San Diego 10-1, 6-1 MW
Series: Boise State is 3-3 against San Diego State. The Aztecs scored a 19-13 win in the most recent meeting, at Albertsons Stadium in 2018.
Vegas line: Boise State by 2.5
Weather: High of 73 degrees, 2% chance of rain, 7 mph winds
This story was originally published November 24, 2021 at 3:09 PM.
