Keys to victory, betting line, predictions for Boise State’s home game vs. New Mexico
There isn’t much wide receiver Khalil Shakir hasn’t experienced during a four-year career at Boise State, but he’ll have a first when the Broncos host New Mexico on Saturday (7 p.m., FS1).
Shakir’s older brother, Attiyah, will be in the stands at Albertsons Stadium to see him play for the first time in his college career. That’s huge for Shakir because his older brother has always been someone he can turn to, no matter the situation.
“I was that annoying little brother that always wanted to hang out with big bro and his friends, whether he wanted me to or not,” Khalil Shakir said. “I was able to cling to him, and we went through a lot together.”
Shakir is one of 24 seniors Boise State plans to recognize before Saturday’s game. He leads the Broncos with 64 receptions for 927 yards and five receiving touchdowns. He also ranks No. 6 all-time at Boise State with 195 catches and No. 7 with 2,688 receiving yards.
The 6-foot, 190-pound native of Murrieta, California, said Wednesday that he’s 99.9% sure the Broncos’ game against New Mexico will be the last home game of his college career. He’ll likely hear his name called in the 2022 NFL Draft, and he plans to take a few moments to himself after the game to soak in the Albertsons Stadium atmosphere one last time.
“I think every moment on The Blue is my favorite,” Shakir said. “I’m greatly honored to be able to play this game in such a great stadium on a great field.”
Shakir also got some big news on Thursday. He was called into Boise State football coach Andy Avalos’ office and was presented with a letter inviting him to the 2022 Senior Bowl. He’ll spend the first week of February training with some of the top seniors in the country in Mobile, Alabama. The annual Senior Bowl game is scheduled for Feb. 5 at the University of South Alabama.
He wasn’t the only Boise State senior who got good news on Thursday. Nickel Kekaula Kaniho picked up an invite to the annual NFLPA Bowl, which is scheduled for Jan. 29 at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, California.
Kaniho has appeared in a program-record 58 games and started 44 since joining the program in 2017. He has racked up 209 tackles, five sacks and six interceptions during his career, and he’s No. 5 on the team with 44 tackles this season.
Keys to victory
Finish drives with TDs: Boise State struggled to finish drives in the red zone against Wyoming last week, a continuing problem this season. The Broncos have racked up 855 yards of offense the past two weeks, but kicker Jonah Dalmas has been called on to kick eight field goals — seven of which counted, after one was taken off the board because of a penalty by Wyoming. The Broncos need to keep up the offensive production against New Mexico, but they need to end more drives in the end zone. The Lobos run a tricky option offense, and anything can happen if Boise State lets them hang around in a close game.
Run the ball: Boise State is 6-0 in games that running back George Holani has rushed for at least 100 yards. After he was limited by injury in the first eight games of this season, Holani has carried the ball at least 20 times and cracked 100 yards in each of the Broncos’ past two games. The equation is simple: When Holani has a good day, Boise State wins.
The Broncos need to put the ball in his hands early and often against New Mexico on Saturday. That not only keeps the Broncos’ most explosive offensive player involved, but keeps the Lobos’ clock-consuming rushing attack on the sideline. Holani had 166 rushing yards on the season heading into the Broncos’ win at Fresno State on Nov. 6. He has 219 yards on the ground the past two weeks.
No turnovers: Boise State’s only turnover the past three weeks was an interception on a pass thrown by Shakir against Colorado State on Oct. 30. Another game with no turnovers will help keep Boise State’s slim hopes of a fifth straight appearance in the Mountain West championship game alive. The Broncos need to beat New Mexico and then San Diego State on Nov. 27. They also need Utah State to lose one of its final regular-season games, against Wyoming or New Mexico.
Key matchups
Boise State OL vs. New Mexico DE Joey Noble: The Lobos have a playmaker in the trenches in defensive end Joey Noble. He leads the team with 4.5 sacks this season and he leads the Mountain West with 15.5 tackles for loss. Noble posted an eye-popping 18 tackles in a loss to Air Force earlier this season, and he posted a sack in three straight games against Texas A&M, UTEP and Air Force. Boise State offensive tackles John Ojukwu and Uzo Osuji are going to have to keep him out of the Broncos’ backfield.
Boise State LBs vs. New Mexico’s backfield: New Mexico is coming to Albertsons Stadium with three legitimate rushing threats. The Lobos run a pistol-option attack, which creates plenty of rushing lanes, especially against aggressive defenses. Freshman running back Aaron Dumas is coming off the first 100-yard game of his career. New Mexico’s No. 2 running back, Bobby Cole, is averaging 4.1 yards a carry and scored on a 75-yard touchdown run against UNLV.
Redshirt freshman quarterback Isaiah Chavez is also a threat with his legs, especially in an option offense. One of Boise State’s top linebackers, fifth-year senior Riley Whimpey, will play his last regular-season game at Albertsons Stadium. It might be fellow fifth-year senior Ezekiel Noa’s last game at home, too, and they both need to play their best games of the season to shut down the Lobos’ rushing attack.
Predictions
Boise State and New Mexico didn’t play because of COVID-19 last season, but the Broncos are 10-1 against the Lobos and they’ve won four straight in the series. Boise State’s only loss to New Mexico was in Albertsons Stadium in 2015. The Broncos are 2-3 at home this season, so with a win, they’ll avoid their first losing record on The Blue since 1997.
Boise State is a 27.5-point favorite, according to Las Vegas, with an over/under of 48 points. The Broncos are 15-5 in their past 20 regular-season games as a favorite at home and 11-9 against the spread. The Lobos are 3-17 in their past 20 regular-season games as an underdog on the road and 7-13 ATS.
My pick (5-5 straight up, 5-5 ATS): Boise State is one of the few college football teams in the country that has been getting healthier as the season has gone on. Whether it’s improved depth on the defensive line or getting running back George Holani back to full health, the Broncos have set themselves up to end the season on a big winning streak. They’re not just winning because players are getting healthy, though. Boise State has figured out its winning equation: run the ball and play great defense. That’s what the Broncos are going to do again on Saturday. Holani is going to get at least 20 touches, and if he gets anywhere near 100 yards on the ground, Boise State will win running away. Final score: Boise State 45, New Mexico 14
Betting expert Lee Sterling of Paramount Sports, who appears weekly on KTIK (8-2 straight up, 6-4 ATS): (New Mexico’s offense is) funky but maybe we should call it junky. It’s terrible. They just can’t find a quarterback. They keep rotating quarterbacks. No running backs that can do anything. They haven’t had a receiver in the last eight or 10 years. They attempted just 35 passes the last three weeks. When they fall behind, they just want to get home. They want to get out of the game. They can’t stop decent offenses. I think Holani will have another big game. Bachmeier, no interceptions the last three games. Sometimes you have to lay it if you want to play it. Broncos win big. Final score: Boise State 48, New Mexico 7
THIS WEEK’S COVERAGE
Ask a New Mexico writer: Lobos’ unique defense, tricky rushing game next for Boise State
Fans guide: How to watch, attend the Boise State football game vs. New Mexico
‘It’s not about me’: This Boise State running back embraces his role, excels in red zone
Boise State will honor 24 seniors on Saturday — many of whom might return next season
A former Boise State assistant is out at Washington. Another will serve as interim coach
Idaho ties in the NFL: Boise State grad enjoys career day; Highland High alum makes debut
NEW MEXICO AT BOISE STATE
When: 7 p.m. Saturday
Where: Albertsons Stadium
TV: FS1 (Alex Faust, Petros Papadakis). That’s channel 146 on Sparklight, 219 on DirecTV and 150 on Dish Network.
Radio: KBOI 670 AM/KTIK 93.1 FM (Bob Behler, Pete Cavender)
Records: Boise State 6-4, 4-2 MW; New Mexico 3-7, 1-5 MW
Series: Boise State is 10-1 against New Mexico, and the Broncos have won four straight in the series. The Broncos and Lobos didn’t play last season because of COVID-19.
Vegas line: Boise State by 27.5
Weather: 39 degrees at kickoff, 5% chance of rain, 4 mph winds
This story was originally published November 19, 2021 at 2:30 PM.
