Keys to victory, matchups and predictions for Boise State’s home game vs. San Jose State
The Boise State football team’s success in the red zone this season comes down to mindset.
“It’s been made a priority to kind of be a shark and smell blood,” Boise State quarterback Hank Bachmeier told the media on Wednesday.
The Broncos have turned all 16 of their trips to the red zone into points this season, and they’ve scored touchdowns on 15 of them.
“This particular group on offense, when they get down to the red zone, they want to finish,” Boise State coach Bryan Harsin said. “Guys understand we need to score and we need touchdowns when we get down there.”
Boise State offensive coordinator Eric Kiesau said Wednesday that the Broncos need touchdowns, not field goals, on Saturday against San Jose State (2 p.m., Fox) if they’re going to continue their 13-game conference winning streak, which is the second-longest in the country behind only Ohio State (19).
The Broncos (4-1, 4-0 MW) will have their work cut out for them against the Spartans (4-0, 4-0), who are in search of their first 5-0 start since 1939.
Former Texas A&M and Arkansas quarterback Nick Starkel leads San Jose State into Albertsons Stadium for a game that will go a long way toward deciding who plays in the Mountain West championship game on Dec. 19.
Boise State and San Jose State are two of three remaining teams that are undefeated in Mountain West play. Nevada (5-0, 5-0) leads the conference.
Keys to victory
Keep the intensity: Aside from its loss to BYU, Boise State has dominated the first half of games this season. The Broncos have outscored their opponents 120-43 before halftime, but that hasn’t been the case in the second half. They’ve given up at least 13 points after halftime in every game this season. Last week, Boise State led Hawaii 33-9 early in the third quarter. The Rainbow Warriors scored 29 points in the second half and cut it to a one-score game. The Broncos won 40-32.
Harsin blamed last week’s second-half struggles on poor tackling. If the same is true Saturday, the Broncos’ Mountain West winning streak will come to an end.
Get John Bates involved: Boise State tight end John Bates caught a career-high five passes in each of the Broncos’ first two games of the season, but he has only caught two since then and has gone without a reception in the past two games.
Bates said Wednesday that he suffered a hamstring injury against BYU that has hampered him the past few weeks. He appeared in the Broncos’ wins over Colorado State and Hawaii, but mostly as a blocker. Bates also said Wednesday that he’s feeling healthy, so the Broncos need to get him involved this weekend against the Mountain West’s top scoring defense. San Jose State is giving up just 15.3 points a game.
Win on third down: Boise State is converting 47.7% of its third-down attempts this season, while allowing opponents to do the same just 29.7% of the time. Last week, the Broncos held Hawaii to 7-of-19 on third down. That trend needs to continue Saturday against an offense with enough weapons to score points in a hurry if it’s on the field long enough. San Jose State ranks No. 1 in the Mountain West in pass efficiency (164.1) and No. 3 in passing offense (292.5 yards a game).
Key matchups
San Jose State’s WRs vs. Boise State’s DBs: San Jose State wide receiver Tre Walker was expected to have another big season after leading the Mountain West with 1,161 receiving yards last season. He’s putting up solid numbers again this fall (22 catches, 265 yards, 2 TDs) but sixth-year senior Bailey Gaither has emerged as another threat with a team-high 27 receptions for 432 yards and four touchdowns, both of which rank No. 3 in the conference.
Boise State cornerbacks Jalen Walker and Avery Williams are part of a secondary that shut out Hawaii’s leading receiver Jared Smart until the fourth quarter last week. But that same secondary is going to have its hands full Saturday.
Boise State RB Andrew Van Buren vs. San Jose State LB Kyle Harmon: Van Buren has carried the load since starting running back George Holani left in the first half of the Air Force game with an apparent knee injury. There’s been no indication Holani will suit up this week, but Van Buren is coming off a career-high 113 rushing yards against Hawaii, and his seven rushing touchdowns are tied with Fresno State’s Ronnie Rivers for the most in the Mountain West.
This week, the Broncos are facing a defensive front seven that quarterback Hank Bachmeier said is one of the best they’ll see all season. That front seven is led by junior linebacker Kyle Harmon, who ranks No. 2 in the Mountain West with 52 tackles and averages a conference-high 13 tackles a game.
Predictions
Boise State is an 11.5-point favorite, according to Las Vegas, with an over/under of 58 total points. The Broncos are 14-0 all-time against the Spartans, and Boise State is 17-3 in its past 20 regular-season games as the favorite and 12-8 against the spread (ATS).
Last season, the Broncos had to overcome a first-half deficit in a 52-42 win at San Jose State, and they got some help from Avery Williams, who returned a punt 66 yards for a touchdown. Williams has returned two kickoffs for touchdowns this season and covered 72 yards on three punt returns in last weekend’s win at Hawaii.
The Spartans are 3-17 in their past 20 regular-season games as an underdog on the road but 11-8-1 ATS.
My pick (5-0 straight up, 4-1 ATS): San Jose State has the playmakers on offense to make this a high-scoring affair, but if Boise State can carry the defensive effort it opens games with into the second half, this has the potential to be a blowout. The success of the Broncos’ running game may decide this one, and I think Andrew Van Buren is starting to run with enough confidence to carry Boise State to a close win, but I don’t think the Broncos cover. Boise State 35, San Jose State 28
Betting expert Lee Sterling of Paramount Sports, who appears weekly on KTIK (5-0 straight up, 4-1 ATS): “I think that (San Jose State is) improving. I think that the offense is better. Obviously, they have a high-level quarterback now in Nick Starkel. … He’s going to keep them in it, but I just think that big plays and also special teams will be the difference here.” Boise State 41, San Jose State 27
Ron Counts is the Idaho Statesman’s Boise State football beat writer. Contact him at rcounts@idahostatesman.com and follow @Ron_BroncoBeat on Twitter.
SAN JOSE STATE AT BOISE STATE
When: 2 p.m. Saturday
Where: Albertsons Stadium
TV: Fox (Tim Brando, Spencer Tillman)
Radio: KBOI 670 AM/KTIK 93.1 FM (Bob Behler, Pete Cavender)
Records: Boise State 4-1, 4-0 Mountain West; San Jose State 4-0, 4-0
Series: Boise State leads 13-0 (last meeting: Boise State won 52-42 in 2019 in San Jose, California)
Vegas line: Boise State by 11.5
Weather: High of 40 degrees, partly cloudy, 5 mph wind
Men’s basketball: BSU begins season at Houston
Boise State’s season opener could end up being a launching pad for one of the most touted teams in program history.
The Broncos take on No. 17 Houston (1-0) at 1 p.m. MT on Friday at the Fertitta Center in Houston. The game will be broadcast on ESPN+.
Friday’s matchup will serve as a homecoming for Boise State redshirt senior Derrick Alston Jr., who attended Strake Jesuit High in Houston.
“I wanted to get Derrick Alston back to Houston,” Boise State coach Leon Rice said earlier this week. “He’s been with this program five years, he chose to come back and all the important things that he’s done here. I wanted him to have a chance to play in front of his parents.”
Alston was voted the Mountain West Preseason Player of the Year, and the Broncos were picked second in a preseason poll. But the ceiling is high for the 2020-21 Broncos with Alston back for his senior season after testing the NBA waters, and a quintet of Division I transfers ready to make their mark.
“I think obviously the talent speaks for itself,” Alston said. “… Even coming off last year, our team was really strong and I think that with the returners that we have plus these new guys … once we get our chemistry and really get clicking on all cylinders, we’re gonna be really dangerous.”
Boise State will remain in the Lone Star State for the Southwest Showcase on Sunday at Dickies Arena in Fort Worth, where the Broncos take on Sam Houston State at noon.
— Rachel Roberts
This story was originally published November 26, 2020 at 4:00 AM.
