Keys to victory, matchups and predictions for Boise State football’s opener vs. Utah State
Having faced Utah State every year since 2014, the Aggies are no strangers to the Boise State football team, but the Broncos have had to do a little extra homework to prepare for Saturday’s season opener (5:10 p.m., FS1).
The Aggies are breaking in new offensive and defensive coordinators and have a host of coaches filling new roles this season. Bodie Reeder left North Texas to replace Mike Sanford as offensive coordinator, and assistant coaches Stacy Collins and Frank Maile are working in tandem to replace defensive coordinator Justin Ena.
Ena is still on staff as the inside linebackers coach. Roc Bellantoni replaced Collins as special teams coordinator and took over Maile’s duties as tight ends coach.
The Aggies also padded their roster with plenty of transfers, including quarterback Jason Shelley and running back Devonta’e Henry-Cole — both from Utah — and 6-foot-6 wide receiver Justin McGriff, a former Nebraska commit who spent last season at ASA College of Miami.
Boise State is 5-1 against Utah State since 2014, and the Broncos have outscored the Aggies 227-140 during that span. The Broncos lead the all-time series 19-5.
Keys to victory
Run the ball: Boise State hasn’t played a football game since Dec. 21, 2019, in the Las Vegas Bowl. Utah State’s players haven’t experienced live game speed since Dec. 20, 2019, in the Frisco Bowl. Both teams are going to have plenty of rust to knock off, and the best way for the Broncos to do that is to lean on sophomore running back George Holani, who posted 1,014 yards on the ground last season. Giving the ball to Holani and top backup Andrew Van Buren early and often will allow Boise State to control the tempo of the game and open things up in the passing game.
Keep Bachmeier upright: Whether he was getting blitzed, holding the ball too long or taking off on a run, Boise State quarterback Hank Bachmeier took too many hits last season. He went 7-1 as the starter, but he also missed six games. He’s playing behind an offensive line that is replacing four starters, so the coaches may have to use tight ends and running backs in pass protection. He also has to do a better job of understanding when to slide or get out of bounds. However it’s accomplished, the fewer hits Bachmeier takes on Saturday, the better Boise State’s chances will be to get the win.
Force Shelley to make decisions on the run: Shelley is athletic and can do some damage with his legs, but struggles with turnovers kept him from establishing himself as Utah’s starter. In 2018, he started five games and finished with six interceptions and five touchdown passes. Last season, he attempted just six passes despite appearing in 10 games. Boise State’s defenders are going to have to be disciplined and not give him open running lanes, but the more they can get pressure in his face and force him to make throws on the run, the better the chance that he makes a mistake.
Key matchups
Avery Williams vs. Savon Scarver: Saturday’s season opener will feature two of the best return specialists not just in the Mountain West but in the country. Last fall, Utah State’s Scarver led the Mountain West and ranked No. 12 in the country with 27.9 yards per kickoff return, and he returned two for touchdowns. Boise State’s Williams was named the conference’s Special Teams Player of the Year after ranking No. 1 in the conference and No. 9 in the nation with 13.2 yards per punt return. He also returned two for touchdowns.
John Ojukwu vs. Justus Te’i: Boise State’s offensive line and Utah State’s defensive line are breaking in plenty of new starters this season. Ojukwu, who moved from right tackle to left, is the only starter back on the Broncos’ offensive line. Defensive end Te’i is Utah State’s only starting defensive lineman back after posting 51 tackles, 5.5 tackles for loss and 1.5 sacks a year ago.
Khalil Shakir vs. Shaq Bond: Utah State is replacing both of its starting cornerbacks, which means veteran safeties Bond and Troy Lefeged Jr. are likely to spend plenty of time helping in pass coverage. That will be especially true when it comes to covering Boise State’s top receiver, Shakir, who contributed 10 touchdowns last season: six receiving, three rushing and one passing. Shakir will line up at multiple spots, and the Broncos are sure to find ways to get him matched up one-on-one with a defensive back. After snagging a team-high three interceptions to go along with five pass breakups last fall, Bond may end up drawing that assignment.
Predictions
Boise State is a 16.5-point favorite in Las Vegas with an over/under of 53 points. Boise State is 6-4 against the spread in its past 10 games as the favorite, and 7-3 against the spread in its past 10 games against Utah State.
Utah State is 6-4 ATS in its past 10 games.
My pick: Boise State and Utah State are both likely to be in the running to be in the Mountain West championship game in December, so Saturday’s season opener is a big one for both sides. Offenses have tended to fair better than defenses around the country this fall as teams try to shake off the rust, but I’m not sure that’s going to be the case in this one. Boise State has a lot of experience at linebacker and in the secondary, and Utah State is going to have a hard time moving the ball. Look for safeties JL Skinner and Tyreque Jones to fly all over the field making plays, and don’t be surprised if Avery Williams breaks a long return — either on a punt or kickoff. Boise State 35, Utah State 13
Betting expert Lee Sterling of Paramount Sports, who appears weekly on KTIK: “When the Bronco quarterbacks are healthy, this is a team that can really roll on offense. I just expect Hank Bachmeier to have a big season. He’s got some key starters back running the football, he’s got enough at receiver and the defensive backfield should be strong in case Utah State has to play from behind.” Boise State 41, Utah State 20
Ron Counts is the Idaho Statesman’s Boise State football beat writer. Contact him at rcounts@idahostatesman.com and follow @Ron_BroncoBeat on Twitter.
