Five looming questions as Boise State football hopes to hold a spring season
The Boise State football team won’t take the field this fall, but there is hope for a spring semseter season.
As cases of the coronavirus climbed around the country, the Mountain West announced Aug. 10 that it indefinitely suspended all fall sports.
The move came just five days after the Mountain West announced an eight-game conference schedule and not long after players sent the league a letter demanding more protections from the virus.
The Broncos were scheduled to open the season Sept. 5 at home against Georgia Southern, but that was canceled when the Mountain West decided games couldn’t begin before the week of Sept. 26.
Last season, Boise State went undefeated in conference play and won its second Mountain West title in three years. In July, the Broncos were picked to repeat as champions, but it sounds like they’re going to have to wait until at least January to start that run.
Here are five questions that must be answered before a spring football season becomes a reality.
1. What would it look like?
The first thing college administrators have to figure out is which programs are even available to play.
As of now, four FBS conferences — the MAC, Mountain West, Pac-12 and Big Ten — have suspended their fall seasons. Six are still trying to give it a go: the SEC, ACC, Big 12, Conference USA, American and Sun Belt.
If some conferences are able to get a fall season in, it’s hard to imagine they’re going to want to suit up again a couple months later. That’s especially true if they’re also facing a short turnaround for the 2021 fall season.
Fewer teams means less options for nonconference games and a whole new postseason model.
A postseason option for the Mountain West may be to link up with the MAC for some sort of playoff, according to Yahoo Sports’ Pete Thamel, who reported Monday that preliminary discussions were already underway.
Once the number of teams is determined, the question becomes how many games are going to be played and are nonconference contests in the cards?
The most likely scenario is a conference-only schedule, as leagues are going to want to limit travel as much as possible. Although, before postponing the season, the Mountain West announced it was giving teams the option of scheduling two nonconference games.
The obvious choice for one of Boise State’s nonconference games is BYU, an FBS independent, which has seen its schedule ravaged by COVID-19. But the Cougars are trying to play this fall.
The Broncos could try to schedule a game with a guaranteed payout to help recoup some of their losses from the fall, or they could keep expenses and potential exposure to the virus low and add games against in-state programs Idaho and Idaho State.
Once the schedule is set, dates for training camp and the postseason will fall into place.
But would there be fans in the stands?
In July, Boise State Athletic Director Curt Apsey said he expected the capacity in Albertsons Stadium to be reduced to about 25-30 percent this fall.
How COVID-19 cases are trending in Boise and Ada County this winter will help determine if that estimate remains the same, but it seems unlikely the stadium will be full, even six months from now.
2. What impact will the weather have?
If conferences choose to stick with the NCAA’s model of 29 preseason practices, training camp will begin in early January, with the start of the season slated for February. There also is some talk of the Big Ten holding training camp in December and starting games in January.
For many teams in the Mountain West, football in January would mean frigid temperatures and inclement weather.
In Boise, the average low temperature in January gets down to 23 degrees. That dips to 8 degrees in Laramie, Wyoming, 17 in Fort Collins, Colorado, (Colorado State) and 13 in Logan, Utah (Utah State).
Colorado Springs (Air Force) averages more than 8 inches of snow in January.
At a time when games are far from a certainty because of COVID-19 and the schedule is already reduced, schools can’t afford to have games canceled because of weather.
3. Who will actually be in uniform?
The timing of a spring season will be an issue for some players. It will run dangerously close to the NFL Draft in April, and playing may pose too great of a risk, especially for those expecting to hear their names called in the first round.
Some of the top players in the nation have already opted out: Virginia Tech cornerback Caleb Farley, Minnesota wide receiver Rashod Batemen, Penn State linebacker Micah Parsons, Miami defensive lineman Gregory Rousseau and Purdue wide receiver Rondale Moore.
The Mountain West lost one of its top wide receivers when Colorado State’s Warren Jackson announced less than a week after the season was suspended that he was skipping his senior year to prepare for the draft. Last fall, Jackson ranked No. 4 in the conference with 1,119 receiving yards, and he led the Rams with 77 catches and eight receiving touchdowns.
The NCAA announced last Friday that it will grant all fall athletes an additional year of eligibility. Having that guarantee if an injury were to occur may convince some to play, but viewership and attendance numbers could take a hit if the best athletes in the country aren’t on the field.
As of Thursday, no Boise State players have opted out of the season, according to a team spokesperson.
The Mountain West probably won’t be hit as hard by players opting out as Power Five conferences, but coaches and players all over the country are going to have to pass a battery of COVID-19 tests before they ever get to game day.
The SEC, Big 12, ACC and Conference USA all plan to test players three times a week, and Memphis plans to tests its football players twice a week, pending approval from AAC presidents later this week.
Boise State tested athletes when they initially began arriving on campus in early June and again in July after a spike in positive cases shut down the campus for two weeks.
The real fear is a player testing positive in the week leading up to a game and exposing an entire position group. Even though it’s the preseason, that nightmare is playing out right now at LSU where all but four offensive linemen have either tested positive for the virus or are in quarantine, according to The Advocate.
According to SEC protocols, players that test positive must isolate for at least 10 days. Many health officials suggest isolating for 14 days. Players missing two weeks of an eight- or 10-game season will be tough for teams to overcome, especially if they’re having to dig deep into the depth chart to fill the starting lineup.
4. How will schools handle attendance and staffing conflicts?
With most models suggesting the season start in late January or early February, college football could find itself competing for air time with the NFL postseason and college basketball.
This year, Boise State’s men’s and women’s basketball teams opened conference play on Jan. 1, and the Mountain West tournament began in early March.
If basketball and football seasons run together, programs from the same university will compete to put fans in seats and find enough staff to operate multiple venues.
The NCAA could eliminate the problem by delaying the start of basketball season, but then those programs will find themselves in the same boat as football teams, in terms of effects to recruiting and the offseason calendar.
Especially with increased safety and sanitation protocols expected to be in place at games, universities may be forced to hire additional security, ushers and concessions workers to fill multiple venues.
But shelling out more money is the last thing Boise State wants to do as it anticipates a revenue hit of at least $20 million due to the loss of the fall season.
5. Will COVID-19 still be around next spring?
The most likely answer is yes.
Colleges and universities around the country began welcoming students back to campus the past couple weeks, and several have already seen cases spike. North Carolina moved its classes online barely a week after in-person instruction began.
North Carolina State quickly followed suit, and on Monday, it halted football practice after a cluster of cases was discovered in the program. Notre Dame also moved its classes online last week after 155 positive cases were reported in two days.
There is hope that a COVID-19 vaccine will be in production by early 2021, but most reports don’t expect it to be widely available until the spring or summer.
This virus is going to be around for a while. Conferences are going to have to figure out the most effective ways to test athletes and ensure all programs adhere to the rules.
But the reality is players, coaches and fans are going to be holding their breath every week in hopes that a cluster of positive tests doesn’t cancel a game.
