Three keys — and three score predictions — for Boise State’s championship showdown
It was a novelty two years ago when the Boise State football team faced Fresno State in a regular-season rematch for the Mountain West championship.
It’s business as usual now.
The No. 19 Broncos (11-1) meet Hawaii (9-4) at 2 p.m. Saturday at Albertsons Stadium (ESPN) in the third straight Mountain West title game on the blue turf. And for the third straight year, the game is a regular-season rematch.
The first two times, the team that lost the regular-season game won the title: Boise State over Fresno State in 2017, and Fresno State over Boise State in 2018. That also happened in 2016, when San Diego State beat Wyoming the second time.
That’s a troubling trend for the Broncos, who walloped Hawaii 59-37 on Oct. 12 in Boise.
“Definitely don’t want to have that happen,” Boise State senior tight end Garrett Collingham said, “so the challenge for us is just going out and executing and being us. ... They’re definitely going to have a chip on their shoulder. We know that. At the same time, we do too.”
Three Keys
1. Turnovers: The Broncos have won the turnover battle just four times this season — most notably 4-1 against Hawaii. They also own a combined 4-0 edge in their past two games.
Anytime you play against an offense like Hawaii’s, you must get turnovers. The Warriors are 11th in the nation in yards per game, sixth in passing yards, 13th in third-down conversions and 23rd in fourth-down conversions — but they are tied for the national lead with 28 turnovers and tied for 124th in turnover margin. That’s how you stop them.
In October, the Warriors punted only four times in 15 possessions against the Broncos. The reason they fell behind 31-7? Three fumbles in the first eight possessions, which the Broncos converted into 21 points on drives that totaled just 93 yards.
“The challenge is to understand that that may not happen again,” Boise State defensive coordinator Jeff Schmedding said. “Now, we’re going to try to — that’s the goal. … That’s how you get on top of a team like this. But you can’t anticipate that happening without making it happen. And that’s the biggest thing. You get in a game like this and you take the ball away from an offense that’s that explosive, it can turn the tables very, very fast.”
2. Hightower and Holani: Boise State senior wide receiver and deep threat John Hightower has eight catches for 105 yards with a long of 30 over the past two games. New quarterback Jaylon Henderson was able to find him against New Mexico’s weak defense but not against Utah State and Colorado State.
Hightower had season highs of seven catches, 141 yards and two touchdowns in the first game against Hawaii. The Broncos need him to have another big game this week.
True freshman tailback George Holani, meanwhile, needs to shake off a rough outing at Colorado State (18 carries, 42 yards). The Broncos averaged 5.2 yards per carry against Hawaii in October, when Robert Mahone was still the lead tailback. Holani has since emerged as the starter, and this is a chance for him to shine in the spotlight of a championship game.
3. Secondary issues: The Broncos played last week without three significant contributors in the secondary: starting safety DeAndre Pierce, his replacement Jordan Happle and true freshman cornerback Markel Reed, a role player.
Also, starting cornerback Avery Williams has had some issues in coverage at times, most notably at San Jose State — the only Mountain West team that throws for more yards per game than Hawaii.
In the last meeting, Hawaii threw for 340 yards and four touchdowns — and there were some missed opportunities early in the game. Hawaii finished the regular season with three of the top five receivers in the Mountain West in yards.
Whichever defensive backs the Broncos are able to put on the field Saturday will face a difficult task.
“The guys that are playing have played a significant amount of football, so the standard can’t change back there,” Schmedding said. “That’s the bottom line. … It is a group (of receivers) that will challenge you, there’s no doubt about it. They’re not the biggest, longest, tallest guys, but they’re very good athletes and they understand the system — that’s probably the biggest thing I’d say with this group. They understand where they need to be to get the ball thrown to them, and they are very quarterback-friendly.”
Three Predictions
Boise State is a 14-point favorite with Las Vegas oddsmakers with an over/under of 64 1/2 total points. The Broncos are 22-13 against the spread in their past 35 games.
Hawaii is 8-7 ATS in its past 15 games, including three straight wins. The Warriors are 2-3 ATS this year as underdogs.
My pick (9-3 straight up, 4-8 ATS): Hawaii’s passing attack is going to give Boise State problems, and the improved rushing attack provides the Warriors the second dimension they didn’t have for the October encounter. If the Warriors protect the football — which they certainly didn’t do last time — they’re going to score a bunch of points. But the Broncos have scored 129 points in their past three games — so they’re likely to score even more. Senior quarterback Jaylon Henderson has been smart with the ball, and Hawaii’s defense is the Mountain West’s worst against the run (5.7 yards per carry allowed). Boise State 48, Hawaii 42
Hawaii perspective, from Ferd Lewis of the Honolulu Star-Advertiser (opponent view is 6-4, 4-6): “Trudging off the Blue after a 59-37 thumping Oct. 12, Hawaii running back Miles Reed pledged: ‘Right back here! Right back here!’ Meaning a return to Boise for the conference championship game. What Boise — and national TV — saw that night was the Rainbow Warriors at their season worst. UH figures to be more in character this time, but it might not be enough.” Boise State 34, Hawaii 30
Betting expert Lee Sterling of Paramount Sports, who appears weekly on KTIK (8-3, 4-7): “Hawaii played two tough road games. They played Washington and Boise State, and how did they fare? They lost 52-20 to the Huskies, 59-37 to the Broncos.” Boise State 48, Hawaii 24
Chadd Cripe is the Idaho Statesman’s assistant editor and sports columnist. Contact him at ccripe@idahostatesman.com and follow @chaddcripe on Twitter.
This story was originally published December 6, 2019 at 4:00 AM.
