Bowl projections: Boise State’s options are clear with a win but murky with a loss
Editor’s note: This post has been updated to reflect comments from Las Vegas Bowl Executive Director John Saccenti.
The Boise State football team’s bowl destination likely is down to two spots if the Broncos win the Mountain West, but their list of potential opponents is significantly longer because of the uncertainty about how the final College Football Playoff rankings will shake out.
The Broncos could play in the Cotton Bowl — one of the marquee New Year’s Six games — if they beat Hawaii on Saturday in the Mountain West championship game (2 p.m., ESPN) and Cincinnati beats CFP No. 17 Memphis in the American Athletic Conference championship game (1:30 p.m., ABC). However, it’s also possible No. 20 Cincinnati would jump No. 19 Boise State because of the quality opponent and swipe the Cotton Bowl spot.
Otherwise, a win likely sends the Broncos to the Las Vegas Bowl for the fifth time in 10 years. The Las Vegas Bowl has the top selection from the Mountain West and, despite the lackluster record the opponent would have, this is a prime-time game on ABC (5:30 p.m. MT, Dec. 21) in a fan-friendly destination. Boise State also isn’t scheduled to return to Las Vegas until 2023, and this is the last year of the Mountain West’s deal with the Las Vegas Bowl because the game moves into the new stadium for the Raiders next year.
The Las Vegas Bowl’s committee met this week and hasn’t made a final decision to take the Mountain West champion, Executive Director John Saccenti said Thursday. But the Broncos’ history of bringing fans and TV viewers to the Las Vegas Bowl works in their favor, he said.
Hawaii is appealing because of a strong Hawaiian population in the Las Vegas area and a history of Hawaiians traveling there. It’s called the “Ninth Island.”
“Our intention is to take the champion of that Mountain West game. That is our intention going in every year,” Saccenti said. “This is a little bit of an unusual year because you have a team in Hawaii in the mix who, traditionally, if Hawaii is bowl eligible Hawaii stays in Hawaii. ... We’re going to make decisions when we have to. This is a perfect year to sit back and look at what goes on.”
Still, the Broncos are attractive.
“They have never disappointed us,” Saccenti said. “Every single time we have taken them, they show up. They love Las Vegas. … We’ve had very good television numbers.”
As for opponents, that comes down to which conference gets the final at-large spot in the New Year’s Six. If Utah beats Oregon in the Pac-12 championship game and gets the No. 4 seed in the CFP, Oregon goes to the Rose Bowl and Washington State almost certainly will land in Las Vegas. The Pac-12 also likely will get two New Year’s Six spots if Oregon wins in a close game. However, if Utah wins but doesn’t crack the top four or Oregon wins in a blowout, it’s likely the Pac-12 only gets one spot in the New Year’s Six. That would push everyone down a spot in the pecking order and bring 7-5 teams Arizona State, Washington and California into play for Las Vegas. The game would be required to take an available seven-win Pac-12 team over six-win Washington State, Saccenti said.
The Cotton Bowl, meanwhile, will get the highest-ranked team left after all other New Year’s Six spots are filled through contracts. Who that will be depends on how far the conference championship game losers fall — it could be Auburn, Baylor, Oklahoma, Wisconsin, Penn State or Utah.
Then there’s the really tricky part: What happens if Boise State loses? Hawaii likely would go to Las Vegas and Air Force to the Cheez-It Bowl, leaving the Broncos in the mix for New Mexico, Armed Forces or possibly a game not affiliated with the Mountain West. The Cheez-It Bowl decision would be interesting: Take 10-2 and ranked Air Force, or 11-2 and possibly unranked Boise Sate coming off a loss?
The most likely scenario remains that Boise State will play Washington State (6-6) in Las Vegas. Washington State never has played in the game.
Below are our latest projections for the New Year’s Six and Mountain West bowls, including Boise’s Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. Pairings will be announced Sunday.
A few things to keep in mind:
▪ The highest-ranked champion of a Group of Five conference gets an automatic New Year’s Six bid. That spot is in the Cotton Bowl this year.
▪ The first selection from the Mountain West goes to the Las Vegas Bowl. The Cheez-It Bowl gets the second pick if the Pac-12 or Big 12 fails to fill its spot. We’re projecting the Pac-12 will be short and the Big 12 will not, although the opposite is possible.
▪ The Famous Idaho Potato and New Mexico bowls choose next in collaboration with the conference. The Hawaii Bowl also fits in this group but the Mountain West gave its spot to BYU this year in exchange for a spot in the Armed Forces Bowl. We’re projecting that ESPN, as the owner of both events, will invite Hawaii to the Hawaii Bowl and put the displaced American team elsewhere, perhaps in Armed Forces.
▪ The Arizona Bowl chooses last. The Mountain West also has a backup deal with the Redbox Bowl (unlikely to open) and a relationship with the Frisco Bowl.
New Year’s Six
Fiesta, Dec. 28 (CFP semifinal): LSU vs. Clemson
Peach, Dec. 28 (CFP semifinal): Ohio State vs. Utah
Rose, Jan. 1 (Pac-12 vs. Big Ten): Oregon vs. Penn State
Sugar, Jan. 1 (Big 12 vs. SEC): Oklahoma vs. Georgia
Orange, Dec. 30 (ACC vs. SEC/Big Ten/Notre Dame): Virginia vs. Florida
Cotton, Dec. 28 (Group of Five vs. at-large): Memphis vs. Auburn
Mountain West
Las Vegas, Dec. 21 (MW vs. Pac-12): Boise State vs. Washington State
Cheez-It, Dec. 27 (Pac-12/MW vs. Big 12): Air Force vs. Iowa State
Famous Idaho Potato, Jan. 3 (MW vs. MAC): Utah State vs. Miami (Ohio)
New Mexico, Dec. 21 (MW vs. C-USA): San Diego State vs. Marshall
Hawaii, Dec. 24 (American vs. BYU): Hawaii vs. BYU
Armed Forces, Jan. 4 (MW vs. Big Ten/at-large): Wyoming vs. Florida International
Arizona, Dec. 31 (MW vs. Sun Belt): Nevada vs. Georgia Southern
This story was originally published December 5, 2019 at 4:00 AM.
