Playing for its NCAA Tournament life, Boise State needs to avoid San Diego State sweep
It’s time for a very old sports cliche: It’s do-or-die time for Boise State basketball.
The fifth-seeded Broncos (22-9, 14-6) will face No. 4 seed San Diego State (21-8, 14-6) in the Mountain West Tournament quarterfinals at the Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas at 2:30 p.m. Mountain time Thursday. A win would do more than advance the Broncos into the tournament semifinals — it would keep them right in the thick of the NCAA Tournament bubble conversation.
A loss, meanwhile, likely would be a death knell for Boise State’s hopes of making a fourth straight NCAA tourney. San Diego State is a bubble team as well, and the Aztecs already have beaten the Broncos twice. A third such result, coupled with last week’s 83-73 loss to Colorado State at home in the final regular season game, could spell doom.
“I think we realize where we’re at,” senior guard Tyson Degenhart said Monday. “Obviously, it would’ve been great to get the win on senior night, put us in a better position, but we’re going down to Vegas to win it all.”
ESPN’s Joe Lunardi has Boise State as the first team to miss on his mock 68-team bracket, with San Diego State among the “Last Four Byes.” CBS forecaster Jerry Palm has the Broncos as the last team in and the Aztecs as the third-to-last, with both in play-in games. That’s where BSU was last season, which ended in a loss to Colorado.
If Boise State can finally get past San Diego State this season, it would be a huge boost and provide another big opportunity in the semifinals, where No. 1 seed New Mexico likely would be waiting. The Lobos were a 6 seed last season when they sent the third-seeded Broncos home quickly in the league tourney.
And the conference champion, of course, will get an automatic bid to the big bracket, with no sweating on Sunday.
A loss most likely would relegate Boise State to the NIT or the newly created College Basketball Crown postseason tournament.
But all of that will be sorted out over the weekend. For now the lone BSU mission is to beat San Diego State.
And that’s easier said than done.
The physical, defensive-minded Aztecs won 76-68 at ExtraMile Arena in January and 64-47 at San Diego State’s Viejas Arena in February. They are in a familiar spot in the NCAA rankings, allowing just 63.6 points per game for the 14th-best scoring defense in the nation.
“It’s a great part of basketball, and we can look back at the two games we played this year and try to find adjustments of where we can get better,” Degenhart said. “But also, on the other end, they’re trying to do the same thing and seeing what they can improve on. So we’ve just got to kind of find the right mix and match of things to improve on.”
A big area for improvement? Getting to the rim unchallenged.
In the most recent meeting, the Aztecs blocked Bronco shots 10 times. Half of those blocks came from freshman forward Magoon Gwath, who was named Mountain West Freshman of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year on Tuesday.
Boise State’s Degenhart, senior guard Alvaro Cardenas and junior forward Javan Buchanan also earned conference recognition.
“Having (Gwath’s) length around the rim makes us have to affect our shots a little bit,” Degenhart said about the 7-footer. “He can stretch the floor, he can make threes, he can shoot fadeaways in the post — a great offensive rebounder, so he does a lot of good things for their team.”
Gwath and 6-foot-10 senior forward Jared Coleman-Jones doubled up in the paint both times against Boise State, making it challenging for the Broncos to play through or over them.
If Boise State can shoot 3-pointers well, that could go a long way toward opening up the floor. But that has not been a strength this season, with the Broncos ranking second-to-last in the conference, at 31.5%. In the two games against San Diego State, they shot 23.3% at home and a ghastly 16.7% on the road. Overall, Boise State was 18-for-54 (33%) in the loss at SDSU.
Head coach Leon Rice has remained pretty quiet about how his team aims to change the script against the Aztecs. Degenhart said the Broncos must be more careful with shot selection.
“I think it just depends on the quality of our shots,” Degenhart said. “Obviously, they’re going to come and try to block shots. They’re athletic, they can jump. So we just have to find ways to be effective on offense.”
Falling to the 4-5 game put Boise State on the more fan- and player-friendly side of the Mountain West bracket in terms of game times. A win over San Diego State would put the Broncos in the early semifinal, at 6:30 p.m. Mountain time Friday, likely against New Mexico. The Lobos will be heavily favored when they play the winner of San Jose State-Wyoming in the first quarterfinal Thursday.
