Analysis: Mountain West play begins Tuesday. Ranking the league from top to bottom
Mountain West men’s basketball action begins Tuesday, and the first game of the 2021-22 season will be in Boise.
Boise State hosts Fresno State at 7 p.m. in ExtraMile Arena, and the game will be streamed live online at watchstadium.com. Air Force welcomes Utah State on Wednesday, followed by a full slate of games on Saturday.
The Mountain West performed well during the nonconference portion of the season, with all 11 teams in the conference finishing with winning records.
Below is a look at how teams have fared so far and a peek at what’s to come. Teams are ranked according to Idaho Statesman analysis.
1. Colorado State
Record: 10-0
MW preseason poll: 1st
Nonconference strength of schedule: 221
KenPom, NET ranking: 35, 26
Best win: Saint Mary’s (No. 37 KenPom)
As one of five remaining unbeaten teams in the country, the Rams moved up to No. 20 in the latest Associated Press Top 25. Colorado State was chosen as the league’s preseason favorite, receiving 11 of a possible 20 first-places votes, and the Rams have lived up to expectations so far, including a victory in the 2021 USVI Paradise Jam. However, Colorado State hasn’t played since a 66-63 win over Mississippi State on Dec. 11 and the program is dealing with a COVID-19 outbreak. The Rams’ scheduled league opener Tuesday at New Mexico has been postponed “due to COVID-19-related concerns within the CSU program,” according to the Mountain West.
2. San Diego State
Record: 8-3
MW preseason poll: 2nd
Nonconference strength of schedule: 72
KenPom, NET ranking: 44, 63
Best win: Saint Mary’s (No. 37 KenPom)
The Aztecs had the toughest nonconference slate among Mountain West teams, according to KenPom.com, and they still emerged with eight wins. Their three losses — BYU, USC and Michigan — are against teams that rank among the top 30 in KenPom. San Diego State is 6-0 at Viejas Arena this season and has won 15 straight at home. The Aztecs, who have yet to win on the road this season, have won three in a row and begin league play Saturday at UNLV. Matt Bradley, a Cal transfer, leads the Aztecs at 14.7 points per game.
3. Boise State
Record: 9-4
MW preseason poll: 4th
Nonconference strength of schedule: 126
KenPom, NET ranking: 57, 68
Best win: Washington State (No. 47 KenPom)
Aside from unbeaten Colorado State, the Broncos have the longest active winning streak among Mountain West teams, having won six in a row. Boise State’s losses to UC Irvine and Cal State Bakersfield could prove costly if the Broncos are on the bubble come tournament time, but a perfect mark in the month of December has renewed optimism in Boise. A loss to Fresno State at the end of last year’s regular season was the final blow to the Broncos’ at-large hopes, and they’ll get a chance to avenge that defeat in both teams’ league opener Tuesday at ExtraMile Arena. Freshman Tysen Degenhart has emerged as a go-to scoring threat, earning Mountain West Freshman of the Week honors three weeks in a row and scoring in double figures in all seven games he’s started.
4. Utah State
Record: 9-4
MW preseason poll: 5th
Nonconference strength of schedule: 82
KenPom, NET ranking: 56, 55
Best win: Oklahoma (No. 34 KenPom)
Despite the second-toughest nonconference schedule in the Mountain West and a new coaching staff, the Aggies started the season 7-1 but have since gone 3-3 with losses to Saint Mary’s, BYU and Iowa. The challenging nonconference schedule should pay dividends in league play, however, where Utah State is consistently in the conversation for regular-season and tournament titles. The Aggies ease into conference action against Air Force but had their league home opener against San Jose State postponed due to COVID-19-related concerns. They host Boise State on Jan. 4.
5. Fresno State
Record: 10-3
MW preseason poll: 6th
Nonconference strength of schedule: 216
KenPom, NET ranking: 62, 50
Best win: Santa Clara (No. 83 KenPom)
Fresno State started the season 5-0, and its nine wins over Division I nonconference opponents is its most since 2006. The Bulldogs are getting it done with defense, limiting opponents to a league-leading 54.9 points per game. Fresno State is 7-0 at home and 2-0 in neutral-site games this season, but just 1-3 on the road. Forward Orlando Robinson withdrew his name from the 2021 NBA Draft and returned for his junior season. The 7-footer from Las Vegas ranks among the top 10 in the Mountain West in points (18.5 ppg, 6th), rebounds (8.2 rpg, 7th), blocks (1.7 bpg, 4th), shooting percetange (50.9%, 7th) and free-throw percentage (82.2%, 5th).
6. Nevada
Record: 6-4
MW preseason poll: 3rd
Nonconference strength of schedule: 106
KenPom, NET ranking: 77, 129
Best win: Loyola Marymount (No. 115 KenPom)
Nevada started the season 1-4 and looked little like the team that was expected to contend for a Mountain West title. The Wolf Pack rank second-to-last among league teams in points allowed, at 74.4 per game. COVID-19 issues within the program led to the cancellation of games against North Texas and UT Arlington, while Nevada’s home matchup against Grand Canyon was scraped because of COVID-19 concerns among the Antelopes, and their scheduled Mountain West opener against San Jose State has also been postponed. Despite the upheaval, Nevada has won its past five games.
7. Wyoming
Record: 11-2
MW preseason poll: Tied for 8th
Nonconference strength of schedule: 235
KenPom, NET ranking: 89, 33
Best win: Northern Iowa (No. 121 KenPom)
The Cowboys have more wins than any other team in the Mountain West, but they’ve also had one of the easiest nonconference schedules. The result was an 8-0 start — the Cowboys’ best since going 13-0 in 2012-13. Wyoming’s two losses were a 29-point defeat to No. 9 Arizona and a three-point loss to Stanford. The Cowboys are coming off a consolation title at the Hawaiian Airlines Diamond Head Classic and will be tested right out of the gate in league play with their first five games coming against Boise State, Nevada, Fresno State, San Diego State and Utah State.
8. UNLV
Record: 8-5
MW preseason poll: 7th
Nonconference strength of schedule: 124
KenPom, NET ranking: 126, 142
Best win: California (No. 108 KenPom)
UNLV is another team that appears to be on the rise heading into conference play, having won four in a row after a stretch in which the Rebels went 1-5. However, all four wins have come against teams ranked 195 or higher in KenPom. UNLV dealt with a coaching change and a lot of roster turnover in the offseason, but star guard Bryce Hamilton chose to return after testing the NBA waters and briefly entering his name in the transfer portal. As expected, Hamilton remains the Rebels’ top threat, averaging 18.6 points per game.
9. Air Force
Record: 9-4
MW preseason poll: 11th
Nonconference strength of schedule: 347
KenPom, NET ranking: 290, 266
Best win: Tulsa (No. 145 KenPom)
The Falcons benefited from one of the easiest nonconference schedules in all of Division I, but are perhaps beginning to show their true colors with three straight losses to the likes of Montana, Arkansas State and Tarleton State. Air Force’s nine wins are already better than all of last season, when the Falcons finished 5-20 overall and 3-17 in Mountain West play. The Falcons opened the season 7-1, including a seven-game win streak that was the program’s longest since 2007. But aside from senior guard A.J. Walker, the Falcons don’t return many impact players from a team that struggled mightily last season.
10. San Jose State
Record: 6-5
MW preseason poll: 10th
Nonconference strength of schedule: 251
KenPom, NET ranking: 272, 227
Best win: Cal State Fullerton (No. 189 KenPom)
A perennial Mountain West cellar dweller, with their last winning season coming in 2010-11, the Spartans already have more wins (6) than all of last season (5). San Jose State hired former Nebraska coach Tim Miles to take over the program, but he’s got a tough task ahead. Richard Washington, who led the Spartans last season with 19.5 points per game, must serve a season-long suspension for NCAA violations he committed last summer while testing the NBA waters, and now the Spartans have been forced to postpone their first three Mountain West games because of COVID-19 issues within the program.
11. New Mexico
Record: 7-6
MW preseason poll: Tied for 8th
Nonconference strength of schedule: 214
KenPom, NET ranking: 223, 170
Best win: New Mexico State (No. 104 KenPom)
COVID-19 restrictions kept New Mexico from practicing and playing at home last season, and the Lobos hired a new coach, Richard Pitino, during the offseason. While they already have more wins (7) than all of last season (6), the Lobos aren’t likely to be a consistent threat in the Mountain West in 2021-22. New Mexico ranks last in the league, allowing opponents to score 76.9 points per game. The Lobos won’t open conference play until Saturday against Nevada after their opener against Colorado State was postponed due to COVID-19 concerns within the Rams’ program.
FRESNO STATE AT BOISE STATE
When: 7 p.m. Tuesday
Where: ExtraMile Arena, Boise
Live stream: Stadium (online at watchstadium.com)
Radio: 670 AM (Bob Behler, Abe Jackson)
Records: Boise State 9-4, Fresno State 10-3
Series: Boise State leads the all-time series 24-22, but Fresno State won the most recent meeting, 67-64, on March 2 in Boise.
Vegas line: Boise State by 4
KenPom rating: Boise State 57, Fresno State 62
KenPom & ESPN predictions
Ken Pomeroy, who created the popular college basketball statistical website KenPom.com, ranks every Division I team using an adjusted efficiency margin, which Pomeroy defines as the difference between a team’s offensive and defensive efficiency.
According to Pomeroy’s detailed statistical analysis, Boise State has a 64% chance of beating Fresno State. His score prediction is a 60-57 Broncos victory.
ESPN’s College Basketball Power Index: Boise State has a 72.3% chance of winning with a predicted point differential of 5.5.
This story was originally published December 27, 2021 at 3:53 PM.
