Boise State men’s basketball vs. Memphis in the NIT: How to watch, prediction and odds
More than a month had passed since Naje Smith entered a game for the Boise State men’s basketball team.
But Smith’s fresh legs became a necessity in the Broncos’ NIT opener against SMU last week with Abu Kigab and Max Rice both out with injuries. In 11 minutes off the bench, the 6-foot-7 junior forward contributed five points — making one 3-pointer and a pair of free throws — and one blocked shot.
It wasn’t an overwhelming performance, but it was absolutely critical as the Broncos eked out an 85-84 win.
Boise State’s NIT quarterfinal against Memphis at 7 p.m. Mountain time on Thursday (ESPN) at UNT Coliseum in Denton, Texas, could hinge on the Broncos’ ability to get the most out of their role players.
“(Shorthanded) — that’s the last thing you want to be against a really, really good team, but that’s the way it is,” Boise State coach Leon Rice said in a Zoom interview Monday. “But like I said, Naje stepped up big in our last game. He hit a three, he got fouled on a three. He had a great block right before half. He made some plays that helped us, and we’re gonna need that again.
“Lukas (Milner) is gonna be big. We need him to step up. There might be other guys we might need in a game like this. But it’s a tough opponent to cut your teeth against. ... I know you haven’t played all year, but here, go save the day. That’s hard.”
The Broncos started Emmanuel Akot, Marcus Shaver Jr., Devonaire Doutrive, Derrick Alston Jr. and Mladen Armus in their NIT opener against SMU.
Smith, Milner and sophomore RayJ Dennis — who had started all but two games — combined to shoot 5-for-6 from the floor for 14 points, two rebounds, three assists and two blocked shots off the bench. Milner played five minutes, Smith 11 minutes and Dennis just short of 17 minutes.
Memphis put 10 different players on the court in its NIT win over Dayton, and the Tigers have developed a reputation of defensive excellence this season. Memphis’ field-goal percentage defense ranks ninth nationally, at 39%. The Tigers’ 3-point defense is even better, checking in at 27.4%, which is the No. 2 mark in the country.
“There’s really no way to emulate what they do and how they do it in practice,” Rice said. “You can kind of have a plan, but until you go up against those actual players doing what they’re doing, you’re not gonna get an accurate look at it in practice. So you’ve gotta be able to have your minds right in some ways and when it comes at you, you can’t be shocked by it.”
The winner between Boise State and Memphis will advance to Saturday’s semifinal at 10 a.m. MT (ESPN) at the Comerica Center in Frisco, Texas. Colorado State and N.C. State play at 5 p.m. Thursday (ESPN) in the other quarterfinal on the Broncos’ side of the bracket.
BOISE STATE VS. MEMPHIS
When: 7 p.m. MT Thursday
What: NIT quarterfinal
Where: UNT Coliseum in Denton, Texas
TV: ESPN (Derek Jones, Cory Alexander)
Radio: KBOI 670 AM (Bob Behler, Abe Jackson)
Records: Boise State 19-8, Memphis 17-8
Series: First meeting
Vegas line: Memphis by 4
KenPom rating: Boise State 59; Memphis 39
KenPom & ESPN predictions
Ken Pomeroy, who created the popular college basketball statistical website KenPom.com, ranks every Division I team using an adjusted efficiency margin, which Pomeroy defines as the difference between a team’s offensive and defensive efficiency.
According to Pomeroy’s detailed statistical analysis, Boise State has a 39% chance of beating Memphis. His score prediction is a 74-71 Memphis victory.
ESPN’s College Basketball Power Index: Memphis has a 61.4% chance of winning with a predicted point differential of 3.2.
