Boise State men’s basketball vs. SMU in the NIT: How to watch, prediction and odds
As a senior in high school at Strake Jesuit in Houston in 2016, Derrick Alston Jr. faced Kendric Davis and Sam Houston Math, Science, and Technology Center High School in the playoffs.
Davis’s team won, 80-52, and advanced all the way to the 6A state semifinals.
Alston and Davis will cross paths again Thursday when their teams meet in the first round of the NIT. Alston and second-seeded Boise State (18-8) play Davis and No. 3 SMU (11-5) at 7 p.m. MT (ESPN) at the Comerica Center in Frisco, Texas.
And just as they did in 2016, both players are leading their respective teams in scoring this season.
Davis, a 5-foot-11 junior guard, was named to the National Association of Basketball Coaches (NABC) and United States Basketball Writers Association (USBWA) all-district first teams, just like Alston. Davis is averaging 18.8 points, 4 rebounds and 7.4 assists per game. His assists-per-game average ranks fifth nationally, and he’s coming off a 35-point outing in the Mustangs’ 74-71 loss to Cincinnati in the AAC Tournament quarterfinals.
He’ll be front and center in the Broncos’ game plan.
“He was a highly touted kid, and coming out of high school I watched him,” Boise State coach Leon Rice said of Davis. “The thing about him … he’s gotten better and better and better. He’s just one of those kids — and I don’t know him personally — but he just seems like a basketball junkie, and he’s really, really comfortable when that ball’s in his hands, and not just scoring it. To score the points that he’s scored and have the assist numbers that he has is pretty amazing.”
While Davis will present a challenge for the Broncos, Alston will do the same for the Mustangs.
Alston, who is averaging 17.4 points per game, is one of five players in the country to score 450 or more points this season while shooting at least 44% from the field, 39% from beyond the arc and 85% at the free-throw line. Alston is joined on that list by Gonzaga’s Corey Kispert, Oklahoma State’s Cade Cunningham and the Oral Roberts duo of Max Abmas and Kevin Obanor.
Alston’s 453 points this season are the second most in the Mountain West and 43rd in the country.
“He’s a really good guard, and we’ve got to be ready to go compete,” Boise State sophomore RayJ Dennis said of Davis. “But I’ve got faith in our guards and what we have. We’ve got some good guards, too.”
NOTABLES
▪ Alston was named to the USBWA and NABC all-district teams on Tuesday.
▪ The Broncos will be without senior forward Abu Kigab and redshirt sophomore guard Max Rice against SMU. On Monday, Kigab posted a photo on Twitter saying his shoulder surgery “went great.” Rice was already dealing with a hip injury and then broke a foot, Boise State coach Leon Rice said Sunday.
▪ SMU, which is located about 30 minutes from the Comerica Center, did not play its final eight games of the regular season because of COVID-19 and winter weather. The Mustangs have played only one game since Feb. 8, the loss to Cincinnati on March 12.
▪ The winner between Boise State and SMU advances to the NIT quarterfinals against either top-seeded Memphis (16-7) or No. 4 Dayton (14-9), who play at 10 a.m. MT Saturday (ESPN) at UNT Coliseum on the campus of North Texas in Denton, Texas. The quarterfinal matchup will be Thursday, March 25, at Comerica.
“I think the group that I have is excited to play, and I think they want to play,” Leon Rice said. “Now, the team that we’re playing is really good, and maybe some of their strengths might be some of our weaknesses, especially when you take Abu out of our lineup, and maybe I’m particularly talking about rebounding. So I feel like we’re gonna be in a good place and we’re gonna be ready to go. Now it’s just a matter of being tough enough to try and get this job done, because it’s gonna be hard.”
BOISE STATE VS. SMU
When: 7 p.m. MT Thursday
What: NIT first round
Where: Comerica Center in Frisco, Texas
TV: ESPN (John Schriffen, Fran Fraschilla)
Radio: KBOI 670 AM (Bob Behler, Abe Jackson)
Records: Boise State 18-8, SMU 11-5
Series: SMU 6-5
Last meeting: SMU won 86-63 on Dec. 18, 2017, at Moody Coliseum
Vegas line: Boise State by 1.5
KenPom rating: Boise State 60; SMU 59
KenPom & ESPN predictions
Ken Pomeroy, who created the popular college basketball statistical website KenPom.com, ranks every Division I team using an adjusted efficiency margin, which Pomeroy defines as the difference between a team’s offensive and defensive efficiency.
According to Pomeroy’s detailed statistical analysis, Boise State has a 49% chance of beating SMU. His score prediction is a 76-75 SMU victory.
ESPN’s College Basketball Power Index: SMU has a 54% chance of winning with a predicted point differential of 1.
