Moderate Majority: Even in Idaho, overwhelming opposition to harsh abortion laws
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Idaho Statesman/SurveyUSA poll series
We commissioned a statewide poll through SurveyUSA on abortion access, LGBTQ rights, medical marijuana, education spending, DACA and election fraud. Read the results here.
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Today, we have more insight than we’ve had in many years as to what Idahoans think about abortion and abortion laws. And it’s a lot different from what you might assume.
What we’ve known for a long time is that very few Americans hold either of the two parties’ views on abortion. The vast majority hold a position between the two parties.
Americans’ views of abortion are complex, and they’re uncertain about a lot. And views change a lot depending on how far along a pregnancy is — with much more support for early-term abortions and much less for late-term abortions.
But that’s for America as a whole, a giant hodgepodge of red states, blue states, rural areas and big cities. Maybe, you would think, that isn’t true in the ruby-red Gem State.
Idaho has one of the most extreme abortion bans in the nation, which might lead you to think its laws would be unpopular. But Idaho is also one of the reddest states in the nation, so perhaps such laws would be popular here.
Which is it?
So the Statesman commissioned a statewide poll from SurveyUSA (highly rated for accuracy by 538). It was conducted Oct. 17-20 by phone and online, and the pool of respondents was weighted to demographic factors.
Now that we’ve measured public attitudes, we can state pretty conclusively: The extreme stance the Idaho Legislature has taken on abortion is overwhelmingly unpopular with Idahoans.
When asked if abortion should be legal to preserve the mother’s health, 85% of Idahoans say it should. The issue is not partisan — 83% of Republicans agree. It is not ideological — 68% of those who identify as “very conservative” agree. So do the overwhelming majority of evangelical Christians.
There is no group — by gender, race, religion, income, region or any other factor measured — that thinks abortion should be illegal when it is performed to preserve the health of the mother.
But the Idaho Legislature self-consciously wrote an abortion ban that excludes the health of the mother as a basis for obtaining a legal abortion. Only if the abortion is “necessary to prevent the death of the pregnant woman” is there a defense against criminal prosecution. If carrying a pregnancy to term will result in permanent sterility or disability, that’s not sufficient.
Rep. Brooke Green, D-Boise, explicitly asked the bill’s sponsor, Sen. Todd Lakey, R-Nampa, if an exception should be included for the health of the mother when the bill was heard in committee.
“I would say it weighs less, yes, than the life of the child,” he replied.
And so the Republican supermajority in the Idaho Legislature chose to institute a regime under which women would have to become so sick that their life was at immediate risk before they could obtain a legal termination of their pregnancy. The fact that this policy is obviously cruel and immoral did not sway them.
Perhaps the knowledge that only 7% of Idahoans support their decision will.
The abortion bounty law, which allows relatives of a fetus (including those of a rapist who impregnated his victim) to sue for a cash reward is also overwhelmingly unpopular. Only 12% of Idahoans support it. Among those who identify as very conservative, only 19% support it.
But the unpopularity of Idaho’s extreme abortion laws extends far further than this.
The poll suggests that the law should at most impose measures like fines or license suspension as the penalty for abortion. Solid majorities of Idahoans think that the woman who receives an abortion should not face criminal penalties (62%) and neither should the doctor who performs it (61%).
That’s also the position of Idaho Republican voters. A majority (54%) think that the woman should not face criminal penalties. And a plurality (49% against compared to 32% in favor) think the doctor shouldn’t either.
Nonetheless, current Idaho law defines abortion as a criminal offense punishable by 2-5 years imprisonment.
And for lawmakers thinking about imposing legal penalties on women who go out of state to seek an abortion, think twice. Only 18% of Idahoans like that idea, including only 36% of those who identify as very conservative.
The Legislature has long given into the loudest voices in the room on abortion policy, groups like the Christian nationalist Idaho Family Policy Center. They should think about listening to the silent majority.
And, no, it isn’t the Moral Majority of the 1980s. It’s the moderate majority.
This story was originally published October 31, 2022 at 4:00 AM.
