With future uncertain because of coronavirus, it’s time to focus on graduate education

With campuses closed for spring semester and no way to know what COVID-19 protocols will be in place this fall, enrollment projections for the next academic year may be as reliable as betting on the slots in Vegas. If students do return, how many will come from the same demographic profile of pre-COVID-19 days? For public universities benefiting from higher-paying out-of-state students to balance the budget, the risk of budget loss is high if they do not return. Many college students and young adults now studying online have returned home from where they work or study to be with family until it’s safe to return.

With the ultimate vaccine protection still over a year away, might some of those students opt to remain at home if their classes remain online? Or will they choose educational opportunities closer to home? Can universities still count on the same number of first-year students as families struggle with their own finances? Will there even be a fall term with faculty and students on campus?

California State at Fullerton just announced a virtual fall term, and it’s hard to believe others will not follow. Suddenly, bustling campuses with revenue to support faculty, staff and operations are rendered a mere shadow of their former selves as dining, residential and student union revenues plummet.

To deal with the impact of COVID-19 on higher education, colleges and universities will receive $6 billion in federal funding through the Higher Education Emergency Relief Fund, with much of that funding going directly to students. Institutions will receive forthcoming guidance in the next few weeks on how they may use some of those funds to cover costs associated with significant changes to the delivery of instruction due to the shift to online instruction.

No one can say at this point how federal funding will compensate for budget losses, but it is safe to assume that the COVID-19 crisis will upend higher education as we know it. More vulnerable colleges will be forced out of business. Systems of higher education will likely reorganize and consolidate their universities and colleges to achieve efficiency and effectiveness in the new economy.

Of course, once a vaccine is available for the coronavirus, life on the college campus may return to some semblance of normal, but there is a more immediate challenge for our graduates facing a new normal — a difficult and uncertain job market as employers struggle in the midst of a devastated economy.

With millions of people forced out of work and graduates’ prospects for job interviews significantly diminished, now seems the perfect time for universities and colleges to offer some timely advice to this year’s graduates — stay in school and pursue graduate studies if at all possible. It’s a realistic option for many graduates who will find few job opportunities in the COVID-19 recession. It’s also a realistic option for campuses that can make up for a dip in undergraduate enrollment by shifting faculty resources to graduate study.

In this period of acute economic hardship, employers will be examining more closely how undergraduate preparation translates into career readiness. Many employers may look for a wider range of skills and competencies. Maria Flynn, president of Jobs for the Future, points to our increased dependence on technology in our new stay-at-home environment focusing employer interests on graduates with certain enhanced tech-based skills.

Whether it’s a master’s degree or the increasing number of certificates and badges institutions are now offering to hone specific skills and competencies, now is the time for campuses to ramp up online graduate opportunities. Master’s degrees should be the first priority, but not all graduate study need be degree-oriented. Validation of educational achievement can also be attained with certificates and badges.

Even before COVID-19, there was evidence the job market was favoring college graduates with advanced degrees. CareerBuilder, an online resource connecting job seekers to companies, reports that 39% of employers raised educational requirements over the last five years. Thirty-three percent hired workers with master’s degrees for positions primarily held by those with four-year degrees. Sixty-one percent of employers said the skills required for their positions have evolved, requiring a higher base level of education.

As COVID-19 ushers universities and colleges into a new “dramatic redesign” environment, it is likely to result in a shift of faculty and staff resources to respond to the demands of a new and different educational landscape, a rethinking of learning strategies and a retooling of faculty for the new online instructional landscape. Increased opportunities for online graduate study and a relaxation of admission requirements for graduate study make sense at this perilous moment in the lives of new graduates.

Governing boards and systems can lead the way by incentivizing universities to ramp up their online capability for online graduate degrees. Boards can call for more online certificates and badges to zero in on specific competencies required by the new economy. And they can assure university administrators that board review and approval processes will be streamlined to assure early implementation.

Graduates faced with more uncertainty about their first-job opportunities than since the Great Depression must rely on a university or college education that can change on a dime. That is a considerable lift for American higher education with bureaucratic and cultural barriers that have historically slowed down decision-making, but it will bring new meaning to disruptive innovation in American higher education.