Will Idaho Legislature’s ‘worst session ever’ lead to change in the Republican Party?
Editor’s note: This is the second of a two-part series looking at what many are calling the Idaho Legislature’s “worst session ever,” why it’s so bad and what it means for next year’s elections. You can read Part 1 here.
The Idaho Legislature’s “worst session ever” — as many people are calling it — has sparked an interest in unseating some Republican legislators when they come up for reelection in 2022.
How that plays out depends on whether last year’s far-right shift in both the general election and, more importantly, the primary election, was an outlier or a portent of the real direction of the Idaho Republican Party.
“I think that there are some opportunities, but there’s also challenges,” said Jaclyn Kettler, assistant professor of political science at Boise State University. “One thing to keep in mind is that for a lot of these legislative districts, the primary election is where a lot of the competition is happening, and particularly with closed primaries. That’s going to play a little bit of a role in who’s turning out (to vote.”
Last year was unusual in many ways. It was a presidential election, and Donald Trump’s far-right base was fired up and voting. Plus, the pandemic and the consequent health orders and shutdowns sparked the ire of those same Trump voters, who were looking for ways to lash out at the government. That led many to vote for anti-government candidates.
And that played out in Idaho primaries.
Several far-right candidates unseated established Republicans in the May primary. Far-right legislative leader Rep. Ron Nate, R-Rexburg, defeated Britt Raybould. Rep. Julie Yamamoto ousted Jarom Wagoner in Caldwell, and Rep. Karey Hanks defeated Jerald Raymond in East Idaho’s District 35. Rep. Tammy Nichols, R-Middleton, fended off a challenge from reasonable conservative Kirk Adams in the Republican primary by nearly 20 points.
That far-right turn has shown up in this legislative session with a slew of bills trying to usurp power from the governor, from the attorney general, from cities and states, school boards and districts, even from voters. They’ve taken action on a seemingly endless string of fringe topics, such as public art, monuments, sanctioning China, Powerball and social justice “indoctrination” in preschool and higher education. Meanwhile, practical concerns of property taxes, transportation and education funding lie untouched.
“I think it is a really interesting question long term, how influential does Trump continue to be within the Republican Party broadly,” Kettler said, adding that the shift has its roots in the Tea Party movement. “Will we continue to see these movements to the extremes, or will there be a more organized pushback or just a movement away from supporting some of these more extreme ideologies and candidates?”
Idaho’s red wave
Since the Idaho GOP closed its primary to only registered Republicans in 2012, the party has more than doubled its registered voters, from 234,852 in 2013 to 556,506 today.
The growth was most pronounced in the four years under Trump.
Even after Trump supporters stormed the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, another 500 people registered as Republicans in Idaho, as Republican rolls declined nationally.
In all, 554,019 Idahoans voted for Trump in the November election, a 35% increase from his total in 2016.
That same wave in 2020 gave Idaho Republicans two more seats in the House, extending their supermajority with 58 seats to the Democrats’ 12.
‘Not enough to be against something’
That wave also swept out several “traditional” Republicans, like Britt Raybould, who said she understands the frustrations being expressed about the current legislative session.
“I’m always careful to not call something ‘the best’ or ‘the worst,’” Raybould said in a phone interview. “But you’re not wrong about the frustrations that I think exist from multiple sides. I think that anytime you are not focused on solving underlying problems that people are dealing with on a daily basis, I think it’s really easy to lose sight of the role of a state legislature.”
A look at one vote, in particular, illustrates the shift caused by the 2020 primaries.
In this session, the House narrowly voted to approve the budget of Idaho Public Television. Ridiculous arguments against it included that it was partisan because the children’s show “Arthur” contained an episode on global warming, and “Daniel Tiger’s Neighborhood” discussed race.
Nate cited a “Clifford the Big Red Dog” episode that included a lesbian couple.
Despite those arguments, the bill passed — barely — 36-34.
This debate over Idaho Public Television was similar to the debate last session, including the same citation of the “Clifford the Big Red Dog” episode, although then it was presented by Nichols.
The bill last year also narrowly passed, but by a wider margin, 36-31.
The floor sponsor of the funding bill last year? Raybould, whose “yes” vote was replaced by Nate’s “no” vote this year.
Raybould cites that vote in particular as an example of legislators voting on a perceived principle — fighting against the infiltration of liberal bias in public television — without considering the consequences or presenting an alternative solution.
While debate centered around content and perceived “indoctrination” and liberal bias, the issue of maintaining funding for the state’s emergency broadcast system and critical security infrastructure was the real issue that was being missed.
“It’s not enough to be against something,” Raybould said. “You’ve got to tell me what you’re for, and you’ve got to tell me how, what you’re proposing, either as an alternative or as the replacement, solves the underlying problem. … And that’s the piece for me that I think is missing from a lot of political debate.”
Republican values
The effort to cut Idaho Public Television’s funding is just one of many actions taken this session that has inflamed even lifelong Republicans. This division happening in Idaho reflects the national split between Trump supporters and so-called “Never Trumpers.” It’s led to national movements, such as the Lincoln Project, and spurred the creation of hashtags on social media, such as #NotmyGOP, #TakebacktheGOP, #country1st and #RestoreOurGOP.
Former Republican candidate for governor Tommy Ahlquist, who has been critical of the session this year, points to Ronald Reagan, the Bushes and Mitt Romney as models of what the Republican Party should be.
“I think there are a bunch of folks that are Republicans that care deeply about (Republican) values, that do believe that the government’s not the solution to everything, that do believe that the private sector and free markets work better than government regulation,” Ahlquist said. “They do believe that the most efficient way to solve most problems isn’t additional government programs. There are people that deeply believe that, but they’re just so tired of the rhetoric that there’s kind of nowhere to go for them right now.”
Applying labels
That sense of who’s a “real” Republican or what “conservative” means is a point of contention, particularly when it comes time to run against opponents in a Republican-only primary, where someone like Nate can run successfully to the “right” of a “traditional” Republican like Raybould.
“We have within the Republican Party this shift where you’re losing some of these traditional, conservative, business-focused Republicans,” Kettler said. “At one time, maybe they would have been referred to as ‘the establishment’ Republicans. Ideologically, it’s not necessarily that they’re moderate, but they look more moderate compared to the farther right factions within the party.”
Raybould certainly wouldn’t consider herself a “moderate” and she rightly considers herself conservative.
But does the fact that she voted in favor of the Idaho Public Television budget last year make her a liberal writing fan mail to Nancy Pelosi?
“I think you’ve inadvertently revealed a bigger issue,” Raybould said. “And that’s who gets to define what it means to be conservative, what it means to be moderate and what it means to be liberal, and where I think my frustration with it is that I do not necessarily consider myself to be a moderate individual, and yet when I am put in contrast to some of the other folks within the party, that seems to be the only label that people can come up with.”
‘Libs, fear and conspiracy theories’
More important than labels, according to Ahlquist, is simply finding candidates who want to tackle important issues, such as property taxes, transportation and education funding instead of coming to Boise with their own personal crusade.
“What’s really frustrated me really for the last few years is we don’t talk about policy anymore,” Ahlquist said. “We never talk about policy. It’s all rhetoric, it’s all conspiracy theories, it’s all threats and ‘owning the libs.’ That’s what they’re running on: owning the libs, fear and conspiracy theories. That is the world of the far right of the Republican Party right now.”
Talking policy and coming up with practical solutions is something Raybould would welcome.
“And so if this is a discussion about the direction of where the party goes, I personally think if you want to have an effect on what happens in this state, you need to show up and have solutions for the things that people care about,” Raybould said. “If (people) show up and have solutions, then I think it becomes a lot less interesting to talk about who’s conservative, who’s moderate and liberal, because you’re actually solving people’s problems.
“And, again, my personal opinion, I think that’s where we’ve gotten in trouble is we tried to decide whose definition of conservative is relevant for the Republican Party.”
This story was originally published April 9, 2021 at 4:00 AM.
