Idaho has 4th-lowest rate of child flu vaccinations. This year, that could spell disaster
Idaho ranked fourth-lowest in the nation for children receiving a flu vaccination, at just 48%, one of just five states in the country with a rate below 50%, according to data from the American Academy of Pediatrics compiled by QuoteWizard.
With the coronavirus pandemic still raging and many schools and colleges reopening and high school sports seeking to resume, it’s vital that we get those numbers up.
With a potentially serious combination of flu cases and COVID-19 cases hitting at the same time, some are calling the possible health crisis a “twindemic.”
“We know that flu is bringing significant illness to our populations (every year), significant hospitalizations because of severe illness for influenza, and death,” Dr. Brian Birch, with St. Luke’s Health System, told me in a virtual interview. “This year, I would say it’s even more important than previous years, based upon a couple of different factors.”
One, he said, is that it will be important to relieve as much strain on the health care system as possible while we continue to fight COVID-19. If we can reduce the number of patients in the hospital and clinics and doctors’ offices from the flu, it frees up that capacity for people who are sick from coronavirus.
“The CDC estimated last year about 410,000 to 740,000 flu hospitalizations,” Birch said. “So you add that on top of the COVID hospitalizations and that in itself a typical flu season where our resources are already stretched thin, we’ll be stretched even thinner.”
Second, there’s concern about “co-infection,” people getting flu and COVID-19 at the same time, Birch said.
“What we don’t know but there’s some initial data suggesting that when an individual has a co-infection with influenza and coronavirus that their illness burden isn’t doubling but actually a multitude more sick,” Birch said. “What we know is that they’re significantly more ill and can significantly lead to more complications and deaths related to that co-infection.”
Because influenza and COVID attack the lower respiratory tract, Birch said, the effects can be exponential.
“I like to use the analogy, it hurts kind of bad when your friend punches you on the shoulder; it hurts a lot more when you already have a bruise or hurt shoulder,” Birch said. “And that’s the same thing when it comes to co-infection of these viruses, that it hurts when you have the flu or hurts when you have the COVID, but it hurts a lot more and exponentially more when you have both.”
Reported flu deaths in Idaho were 39 in the most recent season, 2019-20, which is down from 58 deaths in the previous season, 2018-2019, according to numbers from the Idaho Department of Health and Welfare. Idaho had 101 reported flu deaths in 2017-18 and 72 deaths in 2016-17.
It’s important to note that influenza infections are not reportable to public health in Idaho, so reported deaths are likely underreported, said Niki Forbing-Orr, spokesperson for the Idaho Department of Health and Welfare. Similarly, the number of cases year to year isn’t tracked, but the state estimates influenza activity weekly by monitoring surveillance data of influenza-like illnesses and reported deaths throughout the state.
When can you get a flu shot?
Not until mid-September. That’s according to Birch and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Birch said Idaho is already starting to receive some stock of private-sector vaccines, and we’re expected to get the first batches of state-funded vaccines by mid-September.
Getting vaccinated now is too early, according to the CDC, especially for older people, because of the likelihood of reduced protection against flu infection later in the flu season.
“There is a little bit of concern about getting (a flu shot) too early,” Birch said. “And when I say too early, I mean, before Labor Day, as far as having your antibodies last through the entire flu season. So a general recommendation is any time mid-September and afterwards.”
As long as flu viruses are circulating, vaccinations should continue through the winter, even into January or later, according to the CDC.
Most people get the vaccine in October through December, Birch said. For those most vulnerable, Birch said the earlier the better come mid-September.
Only about 47% of people in the United States got the flu vaccine last year, CDC director Robert Redfield said in a recent interview with WebMD. This year, the goal is to try to get that percentage up to 65%.
The CDC recommends everyone 6 months of age and older should get a flu vaccine every season with rare exceptions.
In Idaho, “We are always intensely interested in getting that number up,” Forbing-Orr said. “We are very eager to get the message out, especially during COVID, about the importance of getting a flu shot and the importance of protecting yourself against the flu.”
Supply of flu vaccine
So if there is such an increase in vaccinations, there is a concern about a shortage of the vaccine.
Flu vaccine is produced by private manufacturers, so supply depends on manufacturers, according to the CDC. For the 2020-21 season, manufacturers have projected they will provide as many as 194 million to 198 million doses of flu vaccine, which is more than the 175 million-dose record set during the 2019-20 flu season, according to the CDC.
When is flu season?
Anyone can be affected by flu throughout the year, Birch said. However, flu tends to run from October through April. In Idaho, peaks have typically hit from December through March. In 2016, Idaho got caught by a late flu season that peaked in March.
When it comes to child flu vaccinations, Idaho is ahead of only Utah (47%), Florida (46%) and Wyoming (43%). Alaska is the only other state with a child flu vaccination rate below 50%. States with the highest rates of child flu vaccinations are Rhode Island, Massachusetts and Connecticut, at 76%, 74% and 71%, respectively.
This year, the message is simple: Get your flu shot.
“We do not yet have a mass-produced COVID vaccine,” Birch said. “We’re in the middle of a pandemic, and there’s a lot of unknowns about what this winter will bring as it relates to the coronavirus. There’s lots of data leading us to believe that we will be seeing significant increases in coronavirus going into the winter months.”
