Idaho’s ballot advisory question is a silly trap. But you should walk right into it

One unusual feature of your ballot on Election Day will be an advisory vote on tax cuts and education funding increases. It was placed on the ballot during the recent special session, where the Legislature laid out a plan to use Idaho’s massive budget surplus on a mix of tax cuts and education spending increases.

When you read the advisory question, you’ll probably roll your eyes. And there’s good reason to do so.

This question is a trap. It is obviously a trap.

But it’s a trap you should shake your head at, laugh at, then walk right into.

First, they’re asking you to support a flat tax — and a flat tax is bad policy. It means you take an equal percentage of the income of a poor family who’s trying to keep a roof over their heads and a rich family who’s trying to buy their next boat. The “keep this family off the streets” money is simply more important than the “a bit of extra fun” money, but a flat tax treats them as the same.

And the question wants you to say you approve of this policy along with education spending increases.

But this isn’t a reason to vote “no.” Idaho already had what was essentially a flat tax before the Legislature drew up the formal flat tax. Idaho’s income tax brackets were so compressed that nearly everyone hit the top marginal bracket. And because it also comes with an increased standard deduction, no one’s taxes will go up. Here the Legislature is basically asking for a pat on the back for what they already did because during the special session the tax cuts were finalized, while education funding is still subject to appropriations at the coming legislative session.

And some parts of the question are outright false.

“Your approval of this effort would combat historic inflation by returning money to taxpayers, creating a simple flat tax, and making the largest investment in public education in Idaho history,” you’ll be asked to affirm.

Bounce this sentence off an economist if you want to make them laugh.

Government can combat inflation by raising taxes and cutting spending to remove money from the economy. That pushes down economic growth, which pushes down inflation.

But if you take money that was sitting in a surplus, and then you put it back in the economy through spending increases and tax cuts, that will stimulate the economy and increase inflation.

So the truth is that if this plan has any effect on inflation, it will likely be to make it worse. And they’re asking you to say that it will “combat historic inflation.” Maybe lawmakers intended to say that tax reductions will give people more money to deal with higher prices, but that’s not what they wrote down in this poorly crafted ballot question.

It is a relatively harmless falsehood. In the big picture of the national economy, these tax cuts and education spending increases represent an undetectable drop in the bucket. They won’t push up inflation to any degree you’ll notice.

The bigger danger is that the newcomers in the next legislative session will try to take money out of your kids’ futures. That they’ll take the proposed spending increases away from public schools and try to send them to private schools. That they’ll try to nix education spending increases for additional tax cuts. Or that they’ll come up with something even more harebrained.

The effect of an overwhelming “yes” vote will be to mount political pressure on elected officials to follow through with major education spending increases, which are vital to the future of Idaho kids.

The next session really does set the stage for historic advances in Idaho’s education system — more than $400 million worth. And it’s worth making some big compromises to get there.

So hold your nose and vote “yes” on the advisory question. There’s a whole lot of BS in there, but the alternative smells much, much worse.