‘A weird election’: Idaho redistricting creates competitive contests in GOP primary
Every 10 years, the U.S. Census causes a shakeup in the Idaho Legislature, as voting districts are redrawn to account for population shifts. As the May primary election approaches, significant turnover is expected among Republican lawmakers due to the latest redistricting process.
In the Treasure Valley, the new boundaries set incumbent GOP legislators against each other, while leaving gaps that newcomers may be able to fill. The new boundaries also joined rural areas with urban cities, a move that Republicans opposed before the redistricting process began.
House Majority Leader Mike Moyle, R-Star, who is moving to a new district, said the House could see a turnover of nearly half its members.
“It’s going to be a weird election,” Moyle told the Idaho Statesman. “It’ll be good, though. It’ll be fun.”
The six-person, bipartisan Idaho Commission for Reapportionment set the new districts after meeting for more than two months last year. The commission’s task was to create new boundaries for Idaho’s 35 legislative and two congressional districts, while maintaining roughly equal populations in each district and preserving county boundaries and communities as much as possible. The commission’s preferred map spurred several unsuccessful lawsuits, from Ada and Canyon counties among others.
A two-week period for candidacy declarations closed March 11. Many lawmakers won’t seek reelection, while several incumbent House members filed for the Senate. In total, the next legislative session will see at least 20 new House members and more than a dozen new senators.
That’s not counting incumbent legislators who may lose their seats.
Districts underline urban-rural divide
The Treasure Valley has seen massive population growth since the last redistricting process in 2011. Boise’s districts — which are dominated by Democrats — saw few changes in the new map, with one exception.
But Republican-dominated cities and areas west of Boise were sliced and diced, drawing the ire of party leaders, who fear rural representation will be weakened when counties are split between districts.
There’s good, bad and ugly in the new legislative map, said Tom Luna, chairman of the Idaho Republican Party. Luna praised the redistricting commission for minimizing population differences between districts — the good. But community and county splits were bad for local Republicans, Luna told the Statesman by phone.
“The ugly part is, you have some real quality elected officials that find themselves now in the same legislative districts,” he said. “And their only choice is to not run for reelection or to run against a fellow legislator.”
Ada County gained a legislative district, growing from nine to 10. But the northern and southern parts of the county — once in contiguous county districts — will join bordering, largely rural counties.
The northern part of Ada County, including the city of Eagle, will join Gem County, home to Emmett. Similarly, the cities of Kuna and Caldwell were siphoned into largely rural districts.
In 2020, Idaho Republicans passed a resolution in support of smaller districts.
“When legislative districts get larger due to redistricting, rural districts lose representation,” the resolution said. “Government closest to the people is the best form of government and smaller legislative districts are the best way to accomplish government close to the people.”
That’s why Ada County commissioners objected to joining “urban, growing communities” in Ada County with “rural, sparsely populated neighboring counties,” according to the redistricting committee’s final report.
The commission countered that Eagle and Emmett “are communities of interest in and of themselves” and both are cities in the Treasure Valley, according to the report.
The new District 23 is made up primarily of rural Owyhee County, but about half of the district’s population lives in Kuna. That could be an opportunity for the city, which has no homegrown legislators.
Nearly all of Kuna will be the largest population center for a district that stretches west to the Oregon border, south to the Nevada border and east to the Owyhee-Twin Falls County border.
“It’s a huge, big district,” said Sen. Patti Anne Lodge, R-Huston, who lives in the new district but will not seek reelection. “I’ve always wanted Owyhee County, because (it’s) cowboy country. But when it crosses into Ada County, that’s problematic for my folks because the population in the Kuna area is growing so fast.”
Incumbents square off in new districts
The new districts will pit sitting legislators against each other in the GOP primary.
In the new district with Eagle and Emmett, two incumbent GOP senators, Steven Thayn, of Emmett, and C. Scott Grow, of Eagle, have filed for reelection to the Senate in District 14. Another Emmett Republican, Katie Donahue, also filed for the Senate seat.
“Incumbents have some advantages in elections, but when you have an incumbent running against an incumbent it changes the dynamic some,” said Jaclyn Kettler, associate professor of political science at Boise State University. “It’s a harder race for the incumbent. It’s always interesting to see how they end up approaching that.”
Another large district, the new District 9, includes portions of Canyon County as well as all of Payette and Washington counties. The boundary created contests between Republican Sens. Abby Lee, of Fruitland, and Jim Rice, of Caldwell. Additionally, Reps. Judy Boyle, of Midvale, and Ryan Kerby, of New Plymouth, will face off.
“It’s going to require people running for office to make sure that they’re paying attention to everyone in the district,” Luna said. “It’s going to require, probably, another level of campaigning that an incumbent hasn’t had to do in the past.”
The new District 21 in the center of the rapidly growing city of Meridian has no incumbent in either the House or Senate. Would-be incumbent Republican Sen. Regina Bayer won’t seek reelection. Three candidates are running for the GOP Senate nomination and seven Republicans are running for two House seats.
“I think it’s going to be a wild time, as far as making predictions of … who’s going to win,” Valerie James, Republican Party District 22 chair and precinct committeeman in Meridian, told the Statesman by phone. “It’s kind of an exciting time for people, to view it as an opportunity to serve.”
South of Interstate 84, redistricting had the opposite effect on incumbency. The new District 22 has four incumbents. The rectangular district stretches east of Meridian into Boise.
James said the new District 22 makes sense in terms of “communities of interest,” one of the criteria for the redistricting commission. The area is mostly suburban but maintains rural ties. Its residents, in both Boise and Meridian, have historically felt disconnected from the more densely populated neighborhoods to the north, James said.
“This is definitely a different dynamic,” she said.
The Boise portion of District 22 is represented by Republican Rep. Greg Ferch. To the west, the new district includes the homes of GOP Reps. John Vander Woude and Jason Monks.
Ferch and Vander Woude filed for District 22 Seat A, and Monks filed for Seat B — he has no Republican challenger in the primary.
Rep. Steven Harris, R-Meridian, also lives in the new district, but he is retiring.
Monks, House assistant majority leader, said a lot of legislators chose to retire based on the new maps.
“I’m not saying that’s bad,” Monks said. “I’m just saying it’s definitely going to be a different legislative body next year, that’s for sure. It’ll be a challenge to have lost a lot of institutional knowledge.”
In-fighting could lead to ‘tense’ election
The Idaho Republican Party has garnered national attention for its divisions, as some lawmakers move further to the right. Traditional conservatives are increasingly called RINOs (Republican in name only), while a new group of lifelong Republicans try to root out extremism from the party.
“I expect we’ll see those divisions result in some pretty tense primary races this year,” Kettler said.
The in-fighting may be accentuated by the closed primary — only registered Republicans can vote in the Idaho primary. One of the criticisms of that system is it forces candidates to run to the right in order to be competitive, Kettler said.
“It will be interesting if that’s the dynamic we see in a lot of these races or whether we see some incumbents push back against that sort of trend,” she said.
Some may try to stand out by running “traditionally conservative, business-centric” campaigns, Kettler said.
Luna said he hopes Republicans will remain united amid “spirited” debates during the campaign. Republicans still agree on 80% of issues, Luna said.
“We still have a lot more in common than we don’t,” he said. “You’re going to hear a lot of Republicans debating each other for the next 60, 70 days, but they’re debating that 20% where we don’t agree.”
This story was originally published March 20, 2022 at 4:00 AM.
