Idaho’s COVID-19 week: Positivity rate doubles, more than 7,600 new cases in 7 days
As the omicron coronavirus variant descends on Idaho, case rates are soaring and hospitals are worried they soon will fill up again.
As of Friday evening, Idaho had reported 7,683 new cases of COVID-19 since Dec. 30, the largest weekly caseload since mid-October. The test positivity rate doubled in a week, and the spike in cases has left hospital leaders believing that omicron is to blame.
On Thursday, Dr. Mark Nassir, president of the Saint Alphonsus Medical Group, said the high rate of positive tests and new cases “suggests an increase in transmissibility that is slightly different than what we’ve seen with some of the other curves, and that would be consistent with an increasing ratio of the omicron variant.”
The week of Dec. 26, the positivity rate soared to 17.1%, up from 8.6% the week before, according to data from the Department of Health and Welfare. The rate needs to be 5% or lower to show control over virus spread.
In new data posted to the state COVID-19 dashboard, 88% of positive tests sequenced in Idaho during the second half of December were omicron, and the rest were delta.
In an email, Dr. Christopher Ball, laboratory bureau chief for the Division of Public Health, Bureau of Laboratories, said that it takes 10 to 14 days before a sample is reported as positive and is uploaded to the database. So far, 224 sequenced samples have been posted for that period.
Since Dec. 30, the state has also reported 73 COVID-19-related deaths, pushing the state’s toll to 4,235.
Hospitals fear a worse situation than last fall
With hospital staff still recovering from the last surge in COVID-19 patients, which happened last fall, and facing a backlog of non-COVID-19 patients whose care had been delayed, medical leaders say Idaho may be staring down the barrel of a more dire and fast-approaching crisis.
“We’re likely to need to go into crisis standards of care sooner with this surge than we were in surge number four,” said Dr. Steven Nemerson, chief clinical officer for Saint Al’s, on Thursday.
“This is very much like the beginning of the pandemic again. And this time it’s going to flatten us, quite honestly. And we need to be prepared for that.”
When many Idaho hospitals were in crisis standards of care for over two months last fall, lots of non-urgent — but still medically necessary — surgeries and procedures were delayed. Many of those patients are still being seen, while the number of COVID-19 patients ticks up again.
Saint Al’s had gotten down to fewer than 20 COVID-19 patients in late November. On Thursday, the hospital had 43, which Nemerson called an “explosion.”
Dr. Laura McGeorge, St. Luke’s medical director for primary care, said her health system’s hospitals are “extremely busy right now,” not just with COVID-19, but also with influenza and respiratory syncytial virus — better known as RSV.
As of Jan. 5, there were 272 suspected or confirmed COVID-19 patients at Idaho hospitals, while there were 77 in intensive care, according to state data.
Early research from multiple countries shows that omicron likely causes less severe illness than other versions of the coronavirus. But its infectiousness — perhaps more than twice that of delta — could mean it causes more problems for communities. Both by infecting a larger number of people, including those who are especially vulnerable, and by doing so much faster, hospital resources could be pushed to the brink more quickly.
“If I was given a choice … I would always pick less transmissibility,” Dr. David Pate, former CEO of St. Luke’s, previously told the Statesman. “A significant increase in transmissibility can certainly overcome (being less deadly), because of the sheer numbers of people that will get infected.”
Compounding the problem is omicron’s ability to evade vaccines. Though the vaccines still are highly effective at preventing severe illness and death, scientists say, their ability to protect people from contracting the virus at all has taken a significant hit with omicron.
A higher number of vaccine breakthrough cases means that more health care workers could be temporarily forced to stay home, further constricting staffing woes at hospitals.
Nemerson, of Saint Al’s, said 125 employees were on COVID-19 leave on Thursday, up from 14 two weeks prior. St. Luke’s McGeorge said her health system had also seen a “significant uptick” in employees calling out sick.
‘Exponential increase in demand for testing’
With the virus spreading quickly, many Idahoans are looking for tests.
Several versions exist, including those known as PCR tests, which are highly accurate and usually administered at drive-thru pharmacies and doctors’ offices, and rapid antigen tests, which can be purchased at many pharmacies.
But the huge demand for tests nationwide has made it difficult for many to find a test when they need one.
Walgreens and CVS pharmacies have limited the number of tests people can buy at once. At St. Luke’s, which administers tests, McGeorge said people are now having to wait several days to get an appointment.
“We’re really seeing an exponential increase in demand for testing,” she said. She noted that people seeking testing should not go to urgent care facilities, but rather should look for appointments at pharmacies or other locations.
President Joe Biden has announced plans to mail 500 million coronavirus test kits to American households, and the administration is finalizing a plan with the U.S. Postal Service to begin shipping the tests by mid-January, according to The Washington Post.
Long-term care
As of Friday, Health and Welfare reports there are 5,588 active coronavirus cases among 97 long-term care facilities. There are 256 facilities with resolved outbreaks.
To date, 1,022 people from 220 facilities in Idaho have died from COVID-19-related causes — three more than were reported last Friday. Long-term care deaths account for about 24% of the 4,235 in the state.
Below is a list of Idaho cities along with the number of facilities in each city that have active cases among residents and/or staff. For an outbreak to be considered “resolved,” more than 28 days must pass (two incubation periods) without any additional cases associated with the facility.
American Falls (1), Blackfoot (1), Boise (26), Bonners Ferry (2), Burley (1), Caldwell (1), Coeur d’Alene (8), Eagle (1), Fruitland (1), Garden City (1), Hayden (2), Idaho Falls (3), Kootenai (1), Kuna (2), Lewiston (3), McCall (1), Meridian (9), Montpelier (2), Mountain Home (1), Nampa (8), Payette (1), Pocatello (5), Post Falls (4), Rexburg (1), Rigby (1), Salmon (1), Sandpoint (3), Silverton (1), St. Maries (1), Twin Falls (5), Weiser (1).
Weekly snapshot
Vaccine doses administered in Idaho: 2,173,100, according to Health and Welfare. Of those, 896,597 people have been fully vaccinated, which accounts for 52.3% of Idahoans age 5 and older.
Test positivity rate: Out of the 27,042 COVID-19 tests conducted for the week of Dec. 26-Jan. 1, 17.1% came back positive.
For a list of daily numbers in the Treasure Valley, visit our “What We Know” story.
This story was originally published January 7, 2022 at 7:27 PM.
